Weekend best bets: SuperBook VP hit 70 percent of NFL picks last season
Winning 70 percent of wagers against the spread is virtually impossible long term.
In fact, according to analysis by sportsinsights.com based on 1,000 plays ATS over a calendar year across all major U.S. sports, the odds of a handicapper hitting 70 percent are less than one in a trillion.
But it’s possible to catch fire for a season. SuperBook vice president Jay Kornegay proved that by going 59-25-6 ATS for an astonishing 70.2 winning percentage last season en route to his second Review-Journal NFL Challenge title in three years.
His record would have won the Westgate SuperContest and placed second in the Circa Sports Million contest.
“It was the most successful season I’ve ever had,” Kornegay said. “A lot of things went my way, and you would have to expect a pretty large regression this year. Knowing how difficult it is to pick NFL sides, if I can get close to 57 or 58 percent, I’d probably be happy with that.”
Kornegay attributed part of his success last season to following the play of the plethora of backup quarterbacks who were pressed into action.
“A lot of my selections were based off of their performances,” he said. “I thought they were over-adjusted. Every half point or point in the NFL is very valuable.”
Kornegay is backing journeyman quarterback Gardner Minshew and the Raiders (+3) over the Chargers as his best bet of Week 1.
“The Chargers are going in the wrong direction. They look to be a running team, but in reality, they should be a passing team utilizing Justin Herbert’s skill set,” he said. “Additionally, Raider Nation will be in full force in LA.”
Best bets
— COLTS (+3) over Texans
Legendary sportscaster Brent Musburger, a former RJ Challenge champ who tied for third last season (46-40-4 ATS), likes Indianapolis to cover at home against Houston.
“Especially on Week 1, this comes from Steve Makinen, my buddy at VSiN, always look for a division underdog,” Musburger said. “There’s only three division games this week, and the Indianapolis Colts are the only home division underdog.”
— Vikings (-1) over GIANTS
Pro handicapper Scott Kellen, runner-up to Kornegay last season (49-36-5 ATS, 57.6 percent), played Minnesota over New York.
“Vikings sport better skill position players. Solid tackles to protect Sam Darnold,” said Kellen (@SixthSenseNFL). “If anyone can maximize Darnold to the fullest, it is Vikings coach Kevin O’Connell. Throw in a subpar Giants secondary, and the better lineup should win this game.”
— DOLPHINS (-3½) over Jaguars
Red Rock Resort sportsbook director Chuck Esposito will make his contest debut this season. He likes Miami, which went 7-2 at home last season (6-3 ATS), to start strong against Jacksonville.
“The Dolphins offense at home leads off the season with the same high-powered attack as last year. The Jags have taken a step back and may be behind both the Texans and Colts in the AFC South,” he said. “With the Jets getting so much attention with a healthy Aaron Rodgers, the Dolphins offense comes out firing.”
— Cowboys (+2½) over BROWNS
Pro handicapper Lou Finocchiaro, who took fifth in the contest with 46-42-2 ATS mark, likes Dallas to cover at Cleveland.
“In May, when the opening NFL lines came out, the Cowboys were 1-point favorites over the Browns. Today, the Browns are 2½-point chalk. This is an overreaction,” said Finocchiaro (@GambLou). “There is nothing tangible by way of team dynamic and information to indicate why Dallas is still not the favorite.”
— Cardinals (+6½) over BILLS
— Commanders (+3½) over BUCCANEERS
Veteran SuperBook oddsmakers Ed Salmons and Jeff Sherman bet on two games: Arizona over Buffalo and Washington over Tampa Bay.
“I think Arizona will be improved this year, and I’m not sure what Buffalo’s going to be,” Salmons said. “You would think it can be an adjustment period for Buffalo, with all the receivers gone and just the turnover.
“I just think Tampa’s happy to win by three. They don’t need to win by a margin.”
Contact reporter Todd Dewey at tdewey@reviewjournal.com. Follow @tdewey33 on X.
