Pro bettors weigh in on Bills-Chiefs, Cowboys-Eagles games

It’s only Week 6, but the NFL will serve up a pair of possible conference championship games Sunday in Bills-Chiefs and Eagles-Cowboys.

Buffalo is the clear Super Bowl favorite (+350), followed by Kansas City (+650) and Philadelphia (+650).

Likewise, their quarterbacks are the front-runners in the NFL MVP race, with Buffalo’s Josh Allen the 2-1 favorite, followed by Kansas City’s Patrick Mahomes (5-1) and Philadelphia’s Jalen Hurts (+550).

Dallas has seen its Super Bowl odds drop from 50-1 to 18-1 during a four-game win streak with backup quarterback Cooper Rush managing the offense in place of injured starter Dak Prescott.

“This week will have a big influence on what the Super Bowl odds look like,” Westgate SuperBook oddsmaker Ed Salmons said. “Essentially, you have four of the top eight teams in the league playing each other.”

The last time the Bills and Chiefs met in January, Buffalo fans had their hearts ripped out yet again in a 42-36 overtime playoff loss considered one of the greatest games in NFL history.

The Bills are consensus 2½-point favorites in the rematch at Arrowhead Stadium. The total is the highest on the board at 54.

‘Monster’ handle

“This should be, by far, the biggest handle of an NFL game this season to date,” Salmons said. “This is just going to be a monster.”

The line hit 3 on Tuesday, then a sharp betting group took Kansas City +3 at the SuperBook. A Caesars Sportsbook bettor in Nevada wagered $57,500 to win $50,000 on the Chiefs +3 (-115). The line later moved down to 2½ at most books.

The Bills are the ticket leaders at Caesars (52.8 percent), while the Chiefs are the money leaders (61.7 percent).

“I’m expecting strong two-way action for Bills-Chiefs up until kickoff with the spread this close,” Caesars assistant director of trading Adam Pullen said. “But there will be people that have doubts about the Chiefs after barely beating the Raiders, and they think there’s added emphasis for the Bills because of what happened in the playoffs last year.

“Those two angles go against the Chiefs there, but they still have plenty of respect.”

Pro pick

Pro sports bettor Jeff Whitelaw bet Buffalo -2½, partly because of the revenge angle from the playoff loss in which it blew a lead it took with 13 seconds left in regulation.

“This is their Super Bowl,” he said. “They’ve circled this since the schedule came out. They really want this game to make up for the horrible loss with 13 seconds left.

“The Bills look terrific right now and are starting to get a little healthier, and Kansas City is coming off a short week and did not look very good against the Raiders.”

Full disclosure: Whitelaw is a Buffalo native and lifelong Bills fan.

“But I’m not speaking as a fan. I’m just looking at the numbers, and they really look like they’re the best team in the NFL,” he said. “It looks like Kansas City is not as big a threat as they were.”

NFC Beast

The Eagles (5-0), the league’s only remaining unbeaten, have soared to 6½-point favorites over the Cowboys after the line opened at 5.

“I’m a little surprised the line is this high,” Pullen said. “There were questions about whether Prescott would come back, and that doesn’t look like that’s the case and the line may be reflective of that.

“To me, it seems like a lot of value on Dallas. Six seems like a definite take. Rush isn’t putting up big statistical numbers, but he isn’t making mistakes.”

Surprisingly, the NFC East leads the league in wins with a 14-6 record — 13-2 without Washington (1-4).

“I’m shocked,” Salmons said. “The Giants just keep winning these games somehow, and you can’t score on Dallas.”

The Cowboys are third in scoring defense (14.4 ppg allowed), and the Eagles are seventh (17.6 ppga).

“This is a much bigger game for Philadelphia than it is for Dallas,” Salmons said. “Philadelphia has a lot to prove. If they lose this game to a backup, they’ll give Dallas a lot of confidence.”

Under armor

The total is 42, tied for lowest on the board Sunday. Pro sports bettor Randy McKay wagered on the under.

“Both defenses are playing well. Both teams are more run-oriented,” said McKay (@RR39). “Dallas’ offense with Rush at quarterback is a slow grind style, so it’s going to be tough for both teams to get to the 20s.”

Contact reporter Todd Dewey at tdewey@reviewjournal.com. Follow @tdewey33 on Twitter.