Field taking shape for long-delayed Kentucky Derby
The roses are long since wilted as the Kentucky Derby draws near, but like fall foilage, the race is proving to be a resilient draw despite its temporary new spot on the calendar.
The buzz is building among racing fans over Tiz the Law, the expected heavy favorite in the 146th running of the race on Sept. 5 and a potential superstar. But even casual fans are starting to take heed of some of the fascinating equine and human interest stories that always seem to pop up in connection with America’s most famous horse race.
This year we have Tiz the Law’s taciturn trainer, Barclay Tagg, who could have been sent over by central casting, and the horse’s gregarious good-buddy owners, known collectively as Sackatoga Stable. The team is trying to win the Derby for a second time, having done so with Funny Cide in 2003.
Then there’s Thomas Drury, a part-time trainer who suddenly has solid Derby contender Art Collector in his barn; a one-eyed horse (Finnick the Fierce); and King Guillermo, one of the first three horses purchased by former major league baseball slugger Victor Martinez.
We’ll get down to serious handicapping next week, but in the meantime, here’s a few other developments to whet your appetite:
— As expected, the Nevada Gaming Commission on Thursday approved a rule change that will allow race and sportsbooks to accept bets on the Kentucky Derby despite the absence of a contract with Churchill Downs. The commission made the measure allowing betting on “nationally televised” races temporary, extending it through Nov. 19, by which time it hopes to be able to craft a permanent solution. Bottom line: As long as the chair of the state Gaming Control Board grants permission, Nevadans and visitors will be able to bet on the Derby, though payouts on exotic wagers probably will be limited.
■ The Review-Journal’s annual summary of Derby contenders’ speed figures is back. Longtime readers know of my reservations about relying too heavily on speed figures, but the populi have voxed and they are in favor of this feature.
■ No fans will be allowed to attend the race after all. After initially announcing plans to allow about 23,000 fans in, Churchill Downs officials reversed course and said the grandstands will be empty.
■ There could be fewer than 20 horses entered. Churchill Downs on Thursday listed 18 likely starters, but moved two previously listed horses — Dr Post and Rushie — into the “possible” category. Two other horses who were not previously under consideration for the race — Money Moves and First Line — also were listed as possible. Update: The Daily Racing Form reported Friday that Caracaro is out of the race after suffering an injury during a workout.
#RJhorseracing featured races
The #RJhorseracing handicappers are taking their final opportunity of the summer to double dip at Saratoga and Del Mar by tackling Saturday’s $300,000 Forego Stakes at Saratoga and the ninth race at Del Mar.
In the Forego, a 7-furlong “Win and You’re In” race for the Breeders’ Cup Sprint for 4-year-olds and up, the handicapping crew is solidly behind Whitmore, the 7-2 morning line choice in a wide-open betting affair. They see Funny Guy (9-2) and Complexity (4-1) rounding out the top three.
Though he’s now 7, Whitmore is still tough and a logical favorite, but I’ll try to beat him with “now” horse Fortin Hill (6-1) for trainer Chad Brown. This up-and-coming son of Mucho Macho Man looks like the controlling speed in here and will take some catching. I’ll use Whitmore and Firenze Fire (8-1) to place in the show.
In the ninth at Del Mar, an allowance/optional claiming race for 3-year-olds and up at 1 1/16th miles on the turf, the crowd ’cappers are edging out on a limb and backing One Bad Boy, the 4-1 third choice on the morning line. They have Border Town (7-2) to place and Brandothebartender (5-1) to show.
I’m going with Fly to Mars (3-1) if he can draw into the race off the also-eligible list. I’ll round out my top three with Border Town and One Bad Boy.
Mike Brunker’s horse racing column appears Fridays. He can be reached at mbrunker@reviewjournal.com or 702-383-4656. Follow @mike_brunker on Twitter.
Ellis Starr's Forego Stakes analysis
I think Lexitonian has a slight edge in this year's Forego Stakes. He has always shown promise since winning the Chick Lang Stakes on Preakness Stakes weekend last year, but then went on a five race losing streak. However, in one of those races, the Phoenix Stakes last October, Lexitonian ran good enough to win as he made the lead in the stretch and ended up just a half-length behind the winner and nose behind runner-up Whitmore. The losing streak came to an end in May when Lexitonian won an allowance race at Churchill Downs. Following that, his connections were so high on his chances he was entered in the Alfred G. Vanderbilt Handicap on July 25, but he was scratched at the gate when another horse acted up and he sat down for just a moment. Shipping to California for the Bing Crosby Stakes on August 1, Lexitonian ran the best race of his career, earning a 116 Equibase Speed Figure and rallying from sixth to miss by a nose at the wire. That 116 figure is the best last race in the figure and if Lexitonian can repeat the effort he can take home top honors in a very strong Forego Stakes field.
Chad Brown's pair of Complexity and Fortin Hill could both be up to the task in the Forego. Both are lightly raced 4-year-olds entering the race off wins. Complexity, who has won four of seven starts, earned his most recent victory on July 2, duplicating the career-best 107 speed figure he earned winning the Champagne Stakes in the summer of 2018. Making his second start following a six month layoff, Complexity appears likely to run even better. Fortin Hill has won three of four career starts and finished second in the other. He too just won off a layoff, with a decisive victory on July 4 following three months off. That effort earned a 106 figure and he too should improve in his second start off a freshening.
Honorable mention goes to a number of horses, particularly to Whitmore, who won the 2018 edition of the Forego. First or second in four straight stakes this year including when winning the Count Fleet Stakes with a 114 figure in April, Whitmore makes his second start following three months off and was in no way disgraced when second in the Vanderbilt Stakes over the track last month when second to rising star Volatile.
The rest of the field, with their best Equibase Speed Figures: Everfast (103), Firenze Fire (111), Funny Guy (112), Majestic Dunhill (112), Mind Control (113), True Timber (111) and Win Win Win (112).
Ellis Starr is the national racing analyst for Equibase. Visit the Equibase website for more on the race or to purchase handicapping products.
Kentucky Derby contenders, by the figs
The highest speed figures run this year by top contenders:
Horse|Beyer|Brisnet|Equibase|Timeform US
Tiz the Law|109|115|115|126
Authentic|101|107|113|121
Art Collector|103|104|104|124
Honor A.P.|102|108|106|123
Ny Traffic|101|107|109|120
King Guillermo|99|102|110|120
Thousand Words|104|104|107|124
Dr Post|96|104|107|115
Max Player|99|107|105|118
Caracaro|101|109|107|120
Enforceable|91|95|97|111
Rushie|100|103|99|118
Storm the Court|90|102|96|113
Major Fed|87|99|93|109
Attachment Rate|95|98|99|120
Sole Volante|96|102|100|113
Finnick the Fierce|90|97|99|112
Winning Impression|82|91|91|109
Necker Island|87|98|94|114
Shirl's Speight|91|95|97|117
