Belmont Stakes has heavy favorite, but may be bettable anyway
On the surface, the 153rd running of the Belmont Stakes on Saturday doesn’t look like a great betting race, with Tiz the Law a heavy and deserving favorite. But there are some unique circumstances at play that could make it a better investment opportunity than first glance would suggest.
In a typical year — which this is anything but with the $1 million Belmont leading off the Triple Crown series — the race draws both battle-tested warriors who advanced through the top 3-year-old stakes and at least one of the two preceding Triple Crown races, as well as a few improving newcomers looking to break into the top echelon of the division. In either case, they almost certainly have had at least a few recent races to prepare for the marathon 1½-mile distance.
This year’s running, however, is being contested at the less demanding 1⅛-mile distance and will feature four horses that be racing off layoffs ranging from a couple months to more than five in the case of Max Player, winner of the Withers Stakes at Aqueduct in early February in his last start.
That group includes Tiz the Law, whose last race came on March 28 at Gulfstream Park, meaning he will not have run in 84 days or nearly three months when he steps into the Belmont Park starting gate.
That’s not an inordinately long layoff, and good trainers like Barclay Tagg can adjust for the time off through their training regimens. But neither is it how you would draw it up if you were pointing for the race, as training up to a run adds the possibility that one poor or misjudged workout could mess up an otherwise well-laid plan.
Will it even matter if Tiz the Law, a son of Constitution, is slightly less than 100 percent, given how easily he handled the competition in his first two races of the year?
The answer is probably not. All signs appear to be pointing to another win that will cement his status as the division leader. But I think that the horses with some recent racing under their girths could hold the key to a decent payoff in the exotics. Read on to see my thoughts on betting the race and find out what the #RJhorseracing handicappers are thinking.
Tune in to Royal Ascot
If you are an early riser and enjoy watching some of the best racing in the world from the comfort of home, I’d recommend tuning in to the NBC Sports Network Friday and Saturday for daily coverage of the Royal Ascot meeting from Britain.
NBCSN is airing the races on Friday from 5:30 a.m. ET to 9 a.m. ET and on Saturday on the main NBC Network and will livestream them both days on the NBC Sports app and on NBCSports.com.
#RJhorseracing featured races
The #RJhorseracing handicappers and yours truly are tackling the Belmont, as well as the 11th on Saturday’s card — a 1⅛-mile turf allowance race for nonwinners of $10,000 three times or entered for an optional claiming tag of $80,000, ages 4 and up.
In the Belmont, the handicapping crew is nearly united in backing Tiz the Law, the even-money favorite who is likely to head lower from there. They see Sole Volante (9-2) and Pneumatic (8-1) to place and show, respectively.
I can’t find any holes in Tiz the Law’s resume and will pick him on top. I’ll try to add some value by using some of those recently raced horses in the underneath slots: Tap It to Win (6-1) and Dr Post (5-1). On betting tickets, I’ll play some trifectas and include Pneumatic in that second tier.
I’m going to steer clear of the deep closers — Sole Volante and Farmington Road (15-1) — given that Belmont Park’s track has been notably speed favoring, but will use them in the third slot, along with Max Player and Modernist, both 15-1 on the morning line.
In the 11th race, the crowd ‘cappers are streaking down the sideline with Largent, the 5-2 morning line favorite, filling out their top three with Digital Age (3-1) and Pillar Mountain (8-1).
I think this race is more wide open than the oddsmaker, so I’m going to swing for a better payday with Red Right Hand (15-1), the other speed horse in the field besides Largent. I’ll use Digital Age to place and Monarch’s Glen (10-1) to fill out the top placings.
Mike Brunker’s horse racing column appears Fridays. He can be reached at mbrunker@reviewjournal.com or 702-383-4656. Follow @mike_brunker on Twitter.
Ellis Starr's Belmont Stakes analysis
Although Tiz the Law is the one to beat on paper, I'm going to take a shot with Fore Left to post the upset in the Belmont Stakes. The colt won the first two starts of his career last May and June, both sprints including the Tremont Stakes at Belmont Park, then after two months off he wasn't disgraced a bit when ending up third and a neck behind the runner-up in the Best Pal Stakes at Del Mar. Following a poor effort in his two-turn debut in the American Pharoah Stakes last September, the southern California prep for the Breeders' Cup Juvenile, the colt returned to sprinting and won a minor stakes before trying an all-weather track and trying turf, finishing third then 10th in those races. Rested two months and put back on the dirt while shipping to Dubai for the United Arab Emirates 2000 Guineas, Fore Left led from the start in a 16 horse field and held off all challengers early while drawing off late with some authority. That effort showed he had matured nicely over the winter as he earned a career-best 103 Equibase Speed Figure. The runner-up in that race returned to win a stakes the following month, flattering the form of Fore Left somewhat. Rested since then, Fore Left resumed training in April and shipped to Belmont the first week of June. Since then, he's put in two very strong morning drills over a track he already proved a liking for when winning last spring. Although Tap It to Win earned his last victory at Belmont leading from start to finish, I believe Fore Left will be sent for the lead by jockey Jose Ortiz and if allowed to get into a high cruising speed as he did in the 2000 Guineas, he could post the upset win in this field. He still has to beat Tiz the Law, with 117 and 112 figures earned in his last two starts, but considering this will be only his second start as a 3-year-old, Fore Left may be able to do just that.
There's little question Tiz the Law is the horse to beat based on his body of work and particularly his two races this year. Rested two months after a poor third in the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes last fall, Tiz the Law was a powerful winner of the Holy Bull Stakes with a career-best and field high 117 speed figure which remains the highest stakes winning figure by any 3-year-old in North America four months later. Although he earned a lower 112 figure winning the Florida Derby, Tiz the Law did not need to run any faster after he opened up by a length in the stretch and jockey Manual Franco noted there were no challengers coming. When a horse has earned two consecutive figures which are both higher than any other horse in the field, it's known as a "double advantage" and these horses win a high percentage of the time. Considering how well Tiz the Law ran off a similar layoff in the Holy Bull, and the colt has excellent tactical speed which is likely to have him in third or fourth position early and in range of the leaders at the critical stage of the race, Tiz the Law is a legitimate favorite and the most probable to win the race. The only proviso is how strong a horse like Fore Left may be if allowed an easy lead from the start as horses can get very courageous when allowed to run that way.
Sole Volante was my top choice in the Sam F. Davis Stakes on this page in February off his third place effort in his first dirt start prior to that. Not only had trainer Patrick Biancone already proved prescient with the move as Ete Indien had run very well a couple of weeks earlier, but Sole Volante had tremendous dam side breeding for running well in stakes on dirt. The other foal of the dam, Explode, was multiple stakes placed at distances from nine to 10 furlongs. Sole Volante rewarded those who bet him in the Sam F. Davis with a win at 5 to 1 odds and earned a career best dirt figure of 108. One month later in the Tampa Bay Derby, Sole Volante rallied from 11th of 12 early but couldn't catch the winner and ended up second. Taking three months off, Sole Volante was very impressive with a big burst of speed in the stretch to win 10 days ago. Even though that was not a stakes race, the 107 figure was stakes quality. Sole Volante is likely to be near the back of the pack early but if there is any sort of pace battle early or if the early fractions are faster than average, Sole Volante could be passing the field late for his second graded stakes win of the year.
Honorable mention goes to Tap It to Win and Dr Post as both are on the verge of breakthrough performances. Tap It to Win won a sprint in May in his 3-year-old debut with a 99 figure, then improved to a 108 figure effort 16 days ago. That win came in a one-turn route at Belmont not much different from the Belmont Stakes. Because of the level of the race, there's no way to know the class of the horses he beat but as a son of Tapit and with the ground saving rail Tap It to Win may take the needed step forward to compete with these. Dr Post shows a similar pattern as he stretched out to 1 1/16th miles off a sprint in his most recent start and won well. He improved from a 92 figure to 101 so he appears to be a bit behind Tap It to Win, but 3-year-olds still have potential to take a big leap forward from race to race, particularly lightly raced ones like Dr Post.
The rest of the field, with their best Equibase Speed Figures:Farmington Road (100), Jungle Runner (85), Max Player (103), Modernist (94) and Pneumatic (98).
Ellis Starr is the national racing analyst for Equibase. Visit the Equibase website for more on the race or to purchase handicapping products.
