NASCAR Round of 12 playoff drivers capsules entering race at LVMS
NASCAR Round of 12 playoff drivers
1. Kyle Larson
Playoff points: 59, 6 wins
Car: No. 5 Hendrick Motorsports Chevrolet
Elimination history: Eliminated in Round of 8 in 2019; Eliminated in Round of 12 in 2017, 2018; Eliminated in Round of 16 in 2016; Was not playoff eligible in 2020.
Favorable track: Darlington with four top fives and an average finish of 6.0 in seven starts. He finished second in Round 1 of the playoffs.
Strengths: Larson has been the best performer on 1.5-mile tracks this season, with three of those tracks being part of the playoffs. He has two wins on them, including a win at Las Vegas in the spring.
Weaknesses: Five of the final six tracks on the schedule are among some of his worst based on average finish.
2021 playoff results: Darlington, second; Richmond, sixth; Bristol, first.
LVMS races: 10
Best LVMS finish: First
Average LVMS finish: 9.8
VegasInsider.com LVMS odds: 7-2
2. Martin Truex Jr.
Playoff points: 29, 4 wins
Car: No. 19 Joe Gibbs Racing Toyota
Elimination history: Won championship in 2017; Reached Championship 4 in 2015, 2018, 2019; Eliminated in Round of 8 in 2020; Eliminated in Round of 12 in 2016; Did not make playoffs in 2014.
Favorable track: Las Vegas with two wins and an average of 10.7 in 19 starts. He also won in Richmond in the second race in this year’s Round of 16.
Strengths: All three of Truex’s pre-playoff wins (Darlington, Martinsville, Phoenix) this season have come at tracks that are part of the playoffs – demonstrating his team’s emphasis on prioritizing the 750-horsepower package.*
Weaknesses: The spring and summer stretch saw Truex have two three-race stretches of finishes outside the top 10 – something he can ill afford to have happen again deep in the playoffs.
2021 playoff results: Darlington, fourth; Richmond, first; Bristol, seventh.
LVMS races: 19
Best LVMS finish: First (twice)
Average LVMS finish: 10.7
VegasInsider.com LVMS odds: 9-1
3. Denny Hamlin
Playoff points: 24, 1 win
Car: No. 11 Joe Gibbs Racing Toyota
Elimination history: Reached Championship 4 in 2014, 2019, 2020; Eliminated in Round of 8 in 2016, 2017; Eliminated in Round of 12 in 2015; Eliminated in Round of 16 in 2018.
Favorable track: Darlington with three wins and an average finish of 7.4 in 18 starts. He won again there in the playoff opener.
Strengths: The Round of 16. Going in, Hamlin had eight wins at those tracks – Darlington (3), Richmond (3) and Bristol (2) – and he added a fourth at Darlington.The Round of 8, where he has 11 wins, also sets up well.
Weaknesses: While he has run well this year, his laps lead trailed off considerably since the spring until the playoffs began. Hamlin has reduced his pit-road mistakes, but still is prone to a speeding penalty at the wrong time.
2021 playoff results: Darlington, first; Richmond, second; Bristol ninth.
LVMS races: 19
Best LVMS finish: 3
Average LVMS finish: 12.9
VegasInsider.com LVMS odds: 7-1
4. Ryan Blaney
Playoff points: 24, 3 wins
Car: No. 12 Team Penske Ford
Elimination history: Eliminated in Round of 8 in 2017, 2019; Eliminated in Round of 12 in 2018; Eliminated in Round of 16 in 2020; Did not make playoffs in 2016.
Favorable track: Charlotte Roval with a win and an average finish of 4.7 in three starts.
Strengths: The Round of 12 sets up well for Blaney as he has three wins combined at Talladega and the Charlotte Roval, while Las Vegas is his best 1.5-mile track on the schedule.
Weaknesses: He might have already bypassed it. The Round of 16 loomed large for Blaney because it knocked him out of the 2020 playoffs.
2021 playoff results: Darlington, 22nd; Richmond, 10th; Bristol, fourth.
LVMS races: 10
Best LVMS finish: 5
Average LVMS finish: 9.2
VegasInsider.com LVMS odds: 14-1
5. Kyle Busch
Playoff points: 22, 2 wins
Car: No. 18 Joe Gibbs Racing Toyota
Elimination history: Won championships in 2015 and 2019; Reached Championship 4 in 2016, 2017, 2018; Eliminated in Round of 12 in 2014, 2020.
Favorable track: Richmond with six wins and an average finish of 6.8 in 31 starts. He finished ninth there in the second race in the Round of 16.
Strengths: Based on past history, probably the round of Round of 16 where the two-time champion from Las Vegas had 15 Cup wins at Darlington (1), Richmond (6) and Bristol (8).
Weaknesses: Busch has struggled with the 750-horsepower package this season on ovals. He had the 19th-best average finish in those eight races. The Round of 12 tracks are also some of his worst based on average finish.
2021 playoff results: Darlington, 35th, Richmond, ninth; Bristol, 21st.
LVMS races: 20
Best LVMS finish: 1
Average LVMS finish: 11.9
VegasInsider.com LVMS odds: 6-1
6. Chase Elliott
Playoff points: 21, 2 wins
Car: No. 9 Hendrick Motorsports Chevrolet
Elimination history: Won championship in 2020; Eliminated in Round of 8 in 2017, 2018, 2019; Eliminated in Round of 12 in 2016.
Favorable track: Charlotte Roval with two wins and an average finish of 2.7 in three starts.
Strengths: Elliott’s road-course success is well documented — seven of his 13 Cup wins have come on such tracks. He has won the last two races at the Charlotte Roval, so that gives him an edge on that wild card to close out the Round of 12.
Weaknesses: The lead-off tracks in both the Round of 16 (Darlington) and the Round of 12 (Las Vegas) have not been friendly to Elliott.
2021 playoff results: Darlington, 31st; Richmond, fourth; Bristol, 25th.
LVMS races: 9
Best LVMS finish: 3
Average LVMS finish: 20.6
VegasInsider.com LVMS odds: 8-1
7. Alex Bowman
Playoff points: 15, 3 wins
Car: No. 48 Hendrick Motorsports Chevrolet
Elimination history: Eliminated in Round of 8 in 2020; Eliminated in Round of 12 in 2018, 2019; Did not make playoffs in 2014, 2015. Was not playoff eligible in 2016, 2017.
Favorable track: Charlotte Roval with two top fives and an average finish of 4.7 in three starts.
Strengths: Bowman’s No. 48 pit crew led by crew chief Greg Ives was one of the best in the regular season with the fifth-best average four-tire stop time of 13.924 seconds.
Weaknesses: Bowman has two wins with the 750-horsepower package on ovals, but the overall results with it have been a mixed bag, especially at playoff tracks.
2021 playoff results: Darlington, 26th; Richmond, 12th; Bristol, fifth.
LVMS races: 9
Best LVMS finish: 5
Average LVMS finish: 19.7
VegasInsider.com LVMS odds: 18-1
8. William Byron
Playoff points: 14, 1 win
No. 24 Hendrick Motorsports Chevrolet
Elimination history: Eliminated in Round of 12 in 2019; Eliminated in Round of 16 in 2020; Did not make playoffs in 2018.
Favorable track: Kansas with four straight top 10s and an average finish of 8.0 in that stretch.
Strengths: Byron’s biggest strength during much of the 2021 season was consistency. He has the third-best average finish on both ovals with the 750-horsepower package and 1.5-mile tracks.
Weaknesses: Though road courses were thought to be something of a strength for Byron coming into 2021, his average finish of 25.2 on those tracks is the worst among the playoff field.
2021 playoff results: Darlington, 34th; Richmond, 19th; Bristol, third.
LVMS races: 7
Best LVMS finish: 7
Average LVMS finish: 20.3
VegasInsider.com LVMS odds: 12-1
9. Joey Logano
Playoff points: 13, 1 win
Car: No. 22 Team Penske Ford
Elimination history: Won championship in 2018; Reached Championship 4 in 2014, 2016, 2020; Eliminated in Round of 8 in 2015, 2019; Did not make playoffs in 2017.
Favorable track: Las Vegas with two wins and an average finish of 8.4 in 16 starts.
Strengths: Logano has the best average finish (5.5) in oval races with the 750-horsepower package. The Round of 12 also should suit Logano — in addition to his Las Vegas speed, he has three wins at Talladega and has never finished outside the top 10 at the Charlotte Roval.
Weaknesses: Logan’s 17.0 regular-season average finish on the 1.5-mile tracks may not play a big role until the Round of 8, but his struggles with the 550-horsepower package** will need to be solved by then.
2021 playoff results: Darlington, eighth; Richmond, fifth; Bristol, 11th.
LVMS races: 16
Best LVMS finish: 1 (twice)
Average LVMS finish: 8.8
VegasInsider.com LVMS odds: 11-1
10. Brad Keselowski
Playoff points: 8, 1 win
Car: No. 2 Team Penske Ford
Elimination history: Reached Championship 4 in 2017, 2020; Eliminated in Round of 8 in 2014, 2015; Eliminated in Round of 12 in 2016, 2018, 2019.
Favorable track: Las Vegas with three wins and an average finish of 10.8 in 16 starts.
Strengths: The Round of 12. Las Vegas is his best playoff track by average finish and Talladega by number of victories
Weaknesses: Keselowski is in his last season with Team Penske, so motivation could be a factor. He had an uneven regular season and only the ninth-best average finish on 1.5-mile tracks.
2021 playoff results: Darlington, seventh; Richmond, 13th; Bristol, sixth.
LVMS races: 16
Best LVMS finish: 1 (three times)
Average LVMS finish: 10.8
VegasInsider.com LVMS odds: 15-1
11. Christopher Bell
Playoff points: 5, 1 win
Car: No. 20 Joe Gibbs Racing Toyota
Elimination history: First playoff appearance in the Cup Series; Did not make playoffs in 2019.
Favorable track: Richmond with one top five and an average finish of 9.5 in two starts. He finished fourth there in the second race of this year’s Round of 16.
Strengths: Bell had the eighth-best average finish with the 750-horsepower package during the regular season and top 10s at three of the 750 tracks that are both regular season and playoff stops.
Weaknesses: Only Kurt Busch and Aric Almirola had worse average finishes than Bell’s 17th place on the 1.5-mile tracks during the regular season.
2021 playoff results: Darlington, 20th; Richmond, third; Bristol, 29th.
LVMS races: 3
Best LVMS finish: 7
Average LVMS finish: 21.3
VegasInsider.com LVMS odds: 20-1
12. Kevin Harvick
Playoff points: 2, 0 wins
No. 4 Stewart-Haas Racing Ford
Elimination history: Won championship in 2014; Reached Championship 4 in 2015, 2017, 2018, 2019; Eliminated in Round of 8 in 2016, 2020.
Favorable track: Phoenix with nine wins and an average finish of 8.8 in 37 starts.
Strengths: The Round of 16 where Harvick had the fifth-best average finish on the 750-horsepower ovals this season. He finished fifth at Darlington and eighth at Richmond to climb from 16th in points as the playoffs’ last qualifier.
Weaknesses: Harvick’s 109 laps led during the regular season (with none on 1.5-mile tracks) and his six top fives are on pace to be his lowest performances in those categories since 2013.
2021 playoff results: Darlington, fifth; Richmond, eighth; Bristol, second.
LVMS races: 24
Best LVMS finish: 1 (twice)
Average LVMS finish: 14
VegasInsider.com LVMS odds: 10-1
—————-
* NASCAR 750 horsepower package tracks: Circuit of the Americas, Road America, Indianapolis, Daytona road course, Charlotte Roval, Sonoma, Watkins Glen, Bristol, Dover, New Hampshire, Martinsville, Phoenix, Richmond, Darlington, Nashville.
** NASCAR 550 horsepower tracks: Atlanta, Auto Club, Charlotte oval, Homestead-Miami, Kansas, Las Vegas, Michigan, Pocono Raceway, Texas.
As superspeedways, Daytona International Speedway and Talladega Superspeedway have their own packages.
