5 reasons why Eagles will defeat Chiefs in Super Bowl
Here’s five reasons why the Eagles will defeat the Chiefs on Sunday in the Super Bowl:
1. Hurts and his homies
Quarterback Jalen Hurts was on track to perhaps win the NFL’s MVP award when he was injured, but he has had plenty of help this season.
The Eagles have a stable of capable running backs and have done a phenomenal job stockpiling weapons in the passing game.
Before Hurts arrived, the franchise was developing tight end Dallas Goedert behind Zach Ertz, and Goedert’s emergence eventually made Ertz expendable.
They added DeVonta Smith in the first round of the 2021 draft, then made a huge splash last year on draft day by swinging a massive trade for A.J. Brown.
Hurts is an absolute weapon as a runner, especially in short-yardage situations. His development as a passer and ability to spread the ball around has taken the Eagles to a whole new level.
Oh, and the offensive line arguably is the league’s best and capable of dominating the game.
2. The pass defense
While Isiah Pacheco has given the Chiefs a consistent running threat, it’s still an offense built largely on the passing game.
It’s no secret Patrick Mahomes is at the forefront of everything Kansas City wants to do with the ball. That plays into the hands of Philadelphia’s defense, which ranked No. 1 in DVOA against the pass.
The secondary is a big reason. The Eagles have exceptional cover cornerbacks and get excellent play from their safeties.
But the pass rush is the real key. The Eagles recorded a sack on 11.5 percent of opponent pass plays, the best of any defense since at least 2000. They were also easily the best in the league at generating pressure.
While Mahomes is the best in the league at avoiding sacks and is known for torching blitzes, the Eagles’ ability to generate consistent pressure without sending extra pass rushers could be a huge factor.
3. The WPAOE
Nick Sirianni took a lot of heat for his introductory news conference when he was hired as the Eagles’ coach, but he has done a tremendous job.
He ranked No. 1 among coaches in win probability added over expected this season and is second in the league in the metric since taking over the job.
WPAOE is determined by factoring in a coach’s decisions on fourth downs, along with two-point conversions, timeout usage and avoidance of delay-of-game penalties.
Sirianni is an elite coach in that regard and should give the Eagles just enough of a boost in what figures to be a close game.
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4. The ankle
Mahomes left the divisional round game against Jacksonville with a high ankle sprain, but returned in the second half to lead the Chiefs to victory. After a week of treatment, he played against the Bengals in the AFC championship game, but appeared to be in pain at times.
It’s important to remember he’s still not fully healthy. At kickoff, it will be 22 days since he suffered the injury. Recovery time for high ankle sprains is typically four to six weeks.
The injury still could be a factor in the outcome, as Mahomes’ mobility is a significant part of his game.
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5. The streak
Admittedly, this one is a stretch. Anyone who has watched a shady investment commercial can tell you about the disclaimer that past performance doesn’t always guarantee future results, and that’s certainly true of trends like these.
But the numbers are still intriguing.
The past eight first-team All-Pro quarterbacks to lead their team to the Super Bowl have all lost, a run that goes back to Kurt Warner in 2001.
Mahomes could extend that to nine, and it’s not the only similar streak that favors the Eagles.
There have been six times in which the second-team All-Pro quarterback — this year it’s Hurts — played the first-team choice in the Super Bowl.
The second-team selection won each of those meetings.
