What to bet on Thursday, with pick on Knights game (updated)
Football is back, and our sports plate is overflowing.
The NFL season opener. A college football game. An NBA playoff game involving LeBron James. Twelve baseball games.
Oh, and the Golden Knights playing in Game 3 of the Western Conference Final.
Here’s the betting menu for Thursday (overnight odds at the Westgate):
NFL
Houston (+375 ML) at Kansas City (-9½, total 53½, -450 ML), 5:20 p.m.
The defending Super Bowl champions are laying more than a touchdown in the NFL season opener. The line opened Chiefs -10½ in the summer and has steadily ticked down this week. The total has also ticked down from openers as high as 56½. This is a rematch of a divisional playoff game last season in which the Texans took a 24-0 lead before Kansas City roared to a 51-31 victory.
Line movement: Kansas City up from -9. Total down from 54.
College football
UAB (+475) at Miami (Fla.) (-14½, 55, -650), 5 p.m.
The host Hurricanes have moved up from -14 for their opener. The total is up slightly from 54½. The Blazers are playing their second game after beating Central Arkansas 45-35 last Thursday (but failing to cover as 20½-point favorites). Houston transfer D’Eriq King will start at quarterback for Miami.
NBA
(At Lake Buena Vista, Florida)
Los Angeles Lakers (-5, 218½, -215) vs. Houston (+185), Game 4, 4 p.m.
Up 2-1, the Lakers will try to push the Rockets to the brink of elimination in the Western Conference semifinal series. Houston received sharp action in Game 3, moving from +5½ to +4, but Los Angeles covered in a 112-102 victory. The Game 4 total is the lowest of the series after two of the three games went under. Rockets forward Danuel House Jr. missed Game 3 and will likely miss Game 4, reportedly for a violation of bubble protocol. The Lakers are -750 to win the series (Rockets +525).
Line movement: Total down sharply from 220½. Lakers series price up from -700.
NHL
(At Edmonton, Alberta)
Golden Knights (-165, 5½ under -135) vs. Dallas (+150), Game 3, 5 p.m.
The Knights remain firmly favored after taking it to the Stars in a 3-0 victory in Game 2 to even the Western Conference Final. The total is juiced heavily to the under after four goals were scored in the first two games combined. The Knights are -270 to win the series (Stars +230). Look for more analysis and a handicapper’s pick on the game below.
Line movement: Knights series price up from -260.
MLB
(Pitchers subject to change)
(Note: xFIP is an advanced stat that is a more accurate measure of a pitcher’s performance than ERA.)
Detroit (+205) at St. Louis (-230, 5½ under -120), 11:15 a.m. (first game of seven-inning doubleheader)
Probable pitchers: Detroit’s Tarik Skubal (LHP, 1-1, 4.70 ERA, 4.87 xFIP) vs. St. Louis’ Jack Flaherty (RHP, 2-1, 2.95 ERA, 3.56 xFIP)
Detroit (+165) at St. Louis (-180, 7 under -120), about 2:15 p.m. (second game of seven-inning doubleheader)
Probable pitchers: Detroit’s Jordan Zimmermann (RHP, season debut) vs. St. Louis’ Austin Gomber (LHP, 0-0, 0.64 ERA, 5.69 xFIP)
Houston (+136) at Oakland (-146, 9 under -115), 12:40 p.m.
Probable pitchers: Houston’s Jose Urquidy (RHP, 0-0, 4.91 ERA, 5.06 xFIP) vs. Oakland’s Sean Manaea (LHP, 3-2, 5.09 ERA, 3.78 xFIP)
Line movement: Oakland up from -140. Total now juiced to under after being 9 -110.
Los Angeles Angels (-164, 8½ over -125) at Texas (+154), 1:05 p.m.
Probable pitchers: Los Angeles’ Dylan Bundy (RHP, 4-2, 2.49 ERA, 3.79 xFIP) vs. Texas’ Kyle Gibson (RHP, 1-4, 5.91 ERA, 4.35 xFIP)
Line movement: Los Angeles down from -185. Total down from 9 under -115.
Atlanta (-158, 10½ over -120) at Washington (+148), 3:05 p.m.
Probable pitchers: Atlanta’s Robbie Erlin (LHP, 0-0, 6.84 ERA, 5.53 xFIP) vs. Washington’s Austin Voth (RHP, 0-5, 8.26 ERA, 6.06 xFIP)
Kansas City (+190) at Cleveland (-210, 8 under -120), 3:10 p.m.
Probable pitchers: Kansas City’s Brady Singer (RHP, 1-4, 5.58 ERA, 4.27 xFIP) vs. Cleveland’s Aaron Civale (RHP, 3-4, 3.63 ERA, 3.59 xFIP)
Line movement: Cleveland up from -200. Total down from 8½ over -115.
Philadelphia (-107, 9 under -120) at Miami (-103), 3:40 p.m.
Probable pitchers: Philadelphia’s Jake Arrieta (RHP, 3-4, 5.67 ERA, 4.06 xFIP) vs. Miami’s Sandy Alcantara (RHP, 2-1, 3.78 ERA, 4.33 xFIP)
Line movement: Total now juiced to under after being 9 -110.
Boston (+175) at Tampa Bay (-190, 9 over -120), 3:40 p.m.
Probable pitchers: Boston’s Mike Kickham (LHP, 1-0, 5.40 ERA, 5.50 xFIP) vs. Tampa Bay’s Josh Fleming (LHP, 3-0, 3.52 ERA, 3.91 xFIP)
Baltimore (+220) at New York Yankees (-250, 8½ over -120), 4:05 p.m.
Probable pitchers: Baltimore’s Keegan Akin (LHP, 0-0, 2.08 ERA, 4.66 xFIP) vs. New York’s Gerrit Cole (RHP, 4-3, 3.63 ERA, 3.58 xFIP)
Line movement: New York down from -260.
Cincinnati (-134, 7 over -125) at Chicago Cubs (+124), 5:15 p.m.
Probable pitchers: Cincinnati’s Sonny Gray (RHP, 5-2, 3.19 ERA, 3.14 xFIP) vs. Chicago’s Adbert Alzolay (RHP, 0-1, 2.08 ERA, 3.95 xFIP)
San Francisco (+165) at San Diego (-180, 9 under -115), 6:10 p.m.
Probable pitchers: San Francisco’s Trevor Cahill (RHP, 0-0, 2.65 ERA, 4.77 xFIP) vs. San Diego’s Chris Paddack (RHP, 3-4, 4.75 ERA, 3.69 xFIP)
Los Angeles Dodgers (-240, 9½ over -115) at Arizona (+210), 6:40 p.m.
Probable pitchers: Los Angeles’ Dustin May (RHP, 1-1, 2.88 ERA, 4.14 xFIP) vs. Arizona’s Madison Bumgarner (LHP, 0-4, 8.44 ERA, 7.17 xFIP)
Line movement: Los Angeles up from -200. Total now juiced to over after being 9½ -110.
What happened Wednesday
NBA
Favorites went 1-1 straight-up and against the spread. Totals also split 1-1.
— Toronto (+3) kept its title defense alive with a 125-122 double-overtime victory over Boston in Game 6 of the Eastern Conference semifinal series. The game sailed over 210 in the extra periods, but there were only 196 points at the end of regulation. Kyle Lowry led the Raptors with 33 points, hitting 6 of 10 3-pointers, including several key shots down the stretch. Toronto has been outplayed in the series but has found a way to force a Game 7. Boston’s three wins have been by a combined 43 points to Toronto’s 11.
— The Los Angeles Clippers (-8) jumped out to a double-digit lead and cruised to a 96-85 victory over Denver to take a 3-1 lead in the Western Conference semifinal series. The game stayed way under 221½. Los Angeles led by 14 after the first quarter and by eight at halftime. Kawhi Leonard led the Clippers with 30 points and 11 rebounds.
NHL
— Tampa Bay (-165) delivered a crushing blow to the New York Islanders, scoring with 8.8 seconds left to earn a 2-1 victory and take a 2-0 lead in the Eastern Conference Final. The game stayed under 5. The Islanders scored 1:24 into the game and led 28-21 in shots overall but couldn’t get a second goal past Lightning goaltender Andrei Vasilevskiy, even during a five-minute power play after a major penalty. Nikita Kucherov scored the game-winner just as the teams appeared headed for overtime.
MLB
Favorites went 9-3, with Kansas City scoring the biggest upset (+190 at Cleveland).
Totals went 6-5-1 to the over, none bigger than Atlanta’s 29-9 victory over Miami (total 9). The Braves set the National League record for runs in a game.
Milwaukee also single-handedly more than doubled the total in a 19-0 win over Detroit (total 7½).
Hot Corner handicapper selection
Under 5½ Golden Knights-Stars (-130)
Dana Lane (@DanaLaneSports, 4-6, -2.37 units): Game 2 is the most important of any playoff series. The second game is all about adjustments to what coaches saw in Game 1, giving us a clear sense of who the better team is. If you lose the first two games, then the series is essentially over. Whatever changes were made didn’t work, and that team is left with very little room to excel after its counterpunch failed to land.
The Knights’ counter landed in Game 2, and all the momentum is on their side. Meanwhile, the Stars have to wonder where their offense is coming from after being held scoreless with only 24 shots.
Dallas would rather play a low-scoring affair, leaning on its defensive strength, while the Knights have simply found it difficult to score lately. I think they’ll both be successful in limiting shots on net as this one just gets nastier.
Contact Jim Barnes at jbarnes@reviewjournal.com or 702-383-0277. Follow @JimBarnesLV on Twitter.
