What to bet on Friday, with pick on Stanley Cup Final (updated)
The Heat try to slam the door on the Celtics, and the Lightning try to all but slam the door on the Stars.
Here’s the betting menu for Friday (odds at the Westgate, updated at 11:20 a.m.):
College football
Middle Tennessee (+200 ML) at UT-San Antonio (-6½, total 60, -240 ML), 5 p.m.
The host Roadrunners moved to touchdown favorites over the Blue Raiders before moving back to -6½ on Friday morning. The line opened at 6. The total has risen steadily from as low as 56½. UTSA (2-0) won as an underdog in a 51-48 double-overtime shootout with Texas State in its opener, then won but didn’t cover in a 24-10 victory over Stephen F. Austin. Middle Tennessee (0-2) has been drubbed by Army (42-0) and Troy (47-14) to open the season.
Line movement: UTSA down from -7.
NBA
(At Lake Buena Vista, Florida)
Boston (-3, 213½, -155) vs. Miami (+135), Game 5, 5:30 p.m.
Once again, the Celtics are favored despite losing three of the four games so far in the Eastern Conference Finals. The Heat will try to clinch their first NBA Finals berth since LeBron James left after the 2014 season. The total is the highest of the series after three of the first four games went over. The Heat are -420 to win the series (Celtics +350).
Line movement: Boston down from -3½. Total up from 213.
NHL
(At Edmonton, Alberta)
Tampa Bay (-155, 5 over -125) vs. Dallas (+140), Game 4, 5 p.m.
The favored Lightning appeared to take control of the Stanley Cup Final with a 5-2 victory in Game 3 to take a 2-1 lead. Game 3 was the first game of the series to go over 5. The Lightning are -450 to win the series (Stars +375). Look for more analysis and a handicapper’s pick on the game below.
Line movement: Tampa Bay up from -150. Juice on total down from over -135.
MLB
(Pitchers subject to change)
(Note: xFIP is an advanced stat that is a more accurate measure of a pitcher’s performance than ERA.)
St. Louis (-119, 5½) vs. Milwaukee (+109), 2:15 p.m. (first game of seven-inning doubleheader)
Probable pitchers: St. Louis’ Jack Flaherty (RHP, 4-2, 4.84 ERA, 3.28 xFIP) vs. Milwaukee’s Brent Suter (LHP, 2-0, 3.58 ERA, 2.59 xFIP)
Note: Milwaukee will play as the home team despite the game being in St. Louis
Milwaukee (-102) at St. Louis (-108, 6½ over -115), about 5:15 p.m. (second game of seven-inning doubleheader)
Probable pitchers: Milwaukee’s Josh Lindblom (RHP, 2-3, 4.81 ERA, 4.22 xFIP) vs. St. Louis’ Daniel Ponce de Leon (RHP, 0-3, 5.74 ERA, 4.68 xFIP)
New York Mets (+124) at Washington (-134, 8½), 3:05 p.m.
Probable pitchers: New York’s Rick Porcello (RHP, 1-6, 5.46 ERA, 4.32 xFIP) vs. Washington’s Max Scherzer (RHP, 4-4, 3.67 ERA, 3.50 xFIP)
Line movement: Washington down from -150. Juice on total down from over -115.
Baltimore (+165) vs. Toronto (-180, 9½ over -115), 3:37 p.m. at Buffalo, New York
Probable pitchers: Baltimore’s Jorge Lopez (RHP, 2-1, 5.11 ERA, 4.71 xFIP) vs. Toronto’s Taijuan Walker (RHP, 4-3, 2.86 ERA, 4.99 xFIP)
Colorado (+161) at Arizona (-172, 6), 3:40 p.m. (first game of seven-inning doubleheader)
Probable pitchers: Colorado’s Antonio Senzatela (RHP, 5-2, 3.13 ERA, 4.68 xFIP) vs. Arizona’s Zac Gallen (RHP, 2-2, 3.00 ERA, 3.86 xFIP)
Colorado (+128) at Arizona (-138, 7½ under -120), about 6:40 p.m. (second game of seven-inning doubleheader)
Probable pitchers: Colorado’s Antonio Santos (RHP, 0-0, 8.44 ERA, 6.28 xFIP) vs. Arizona’s Taylor Clarke (RHP, 2-0, 3.99 ERA, 4.78 xFIP)
Note: Santos is making his first career start after two relief appearances this season.
Philadelphia (+140) at Tampa Bay (-150, 8½ under -115), 3:40 p.m.
Probable pitchers: Philadelphia’s Vince Velasquez (RHP, 1-1, 5.46 ERA, 4.16 xFIP) vs. Tampa Bay’s Charlie Morton (RHP, 2-2, 4.64 ERA, 4.41 xFIP)
Line movement: Tampa Bay down from -161. Total now juiced to under after being over -115.
Miami (+175) at New York Yankees (-190, 9½ under -120), 4:05 p.m.
Probable pitchers: Miami’s Sandy Alcantara (RHP, 3-2, 3.12 ERA, 4.45 xFIP) vs. New York’s J.A. Happ (LHP, 2-2, 3.25 ERA, 4.18 xFIP)
Line movement: New York down from -195.
Pittsburgh (+220) at Cleveland (-250, 7½ over -115), 4:10 p.m.
Probable pitchers: Pittsburgh’s Mitch Keller (RHP, 1-1, 3.24 ERA, 6.27 xFIP) vs. Cleveland’s Carlos Carrasco (RHP, 3-4, 2.90 ERA, 3.70 xFIP)
Line movement: Cleveland down from -260. Total down from 8 under -120.
Boston (+155) at Atlanta (-165, 10½ under -115), 4:10 p.m.
Probable pitchers: Boston’s Chris Mazza (RHP, 1-2, 5.40 ERA, 4.88 xFIP) vs. Atlanta’s Kyle Wright (RHP, 2-4, 5.74 ERA, 5.38 xFIP)
Line movement: Atlanta up sharply from -145.
San Diego (-145, 6½ over -120) at San Francisco (+135), 4:10 p.m. (first game of seven-inning doubleheader)
Probable pitchers: San Diego’s Dinelson Lamet (RHP, 3-1, 2.07 ERA, 3.32 xFIP) vs. undecided
San Francisco (+120) vs. San Diego (-130, 6½ under -115), about 7:10 p.m. (second game of seven-inning doubleheader)
Probable pitchers: Undecided vs. San Diego’s Chris Paddack (RHP, 4-4, 4.23 ERA, 3.64 xFIP)
Note: San Diego will play as the home team despite the game being in San Francisco.
Houston (-170, 9 under -115) at Texas (+160), 5:05 p.m.
Probable pitchers: Houston’s Jose Urquidy (RHP, 1-1, 2.78 ERA, 5.74 xFIP) vs. Texas’ Kyle Cody (RHP, 1-1, 1.53 ERA, 5.14 xFIP)
Line movement: Total up from 8½ over -115.
Detroit (+140) at Kansas City (-150, 8½ over -120), 5:05 p.m.
Probable pitchers: Detroit’s Spencer Turnbull (RHP, 4-3, 3.83 ERA, 4,54 xFIP) vs. Kansas City’s Brad Keller (RHP, 4-3, 2.77 ERA, 4.55 xFIP)
Chicago Cubs (-156, 8 over -120) at Chicago White Sox (+146), 5:05 p.m.
Probable pitchers: Cubs’ Yu Darvish (RHP, 7-3, 2.22 ERA, 2.68 xFIP) vs. White Sox’s Dylan Cease (RHP, 5-3, 3.52 ERA, 5.94 xFIP)
Line movement: Cubs up from -142.
Cincinnati (+125) at Minnesota (-135, 8½), 5:10 p.m.
Probable pitchers: Cincinnati’s Tyler Mahle (RHP, 2-2, 3.57 ERA, 4.53 xFIP) vs. Minnesota’s Jose Berrios (RHP, 5-3, 3.72 ERA, 4.31 xFIP)
Line movement: Minnesota down from -150. Juice on total now -110 after being over -115.
Seattle (+180) at Oakland (-200, 8 under -115), 6:40 p.m.
Probable pitchers: Seattle’s Yusei Kikuchi (LHP, 2-4, 5.93 ERA, 3.70 xFIP) vs. Oakland’s Chris Bassitt (RHP, 5-2, 2.57 ERA, 4.62 xFIP)
Line movement: Total now juiced to under after being over -115.
Los Angeles Angels (+190) at Los Angeles Dodgers (-210, 8 under -115), 6:40 p.m.
Probable pitchers: Angels’ Andrew Heaney (LHP, 4-3, 4.02 ERA, 3.90 xFIP) vs. Dodgers’ Clayton Kershaw (LHP, 6-2, 2.15 ERA, 2.89 xFIP)
Line movement: Dodgers down from -230. Total down from 8½ under -115.
What happened Thursday
NFL
— Miami (+2½, +125 ML) cruised to a 31-13 road win at Jacksonville. The game stayed under 49. The Dolphins scored touchdowns on its first three drives to take a 21-7 lead. The Jaguars ended up slightly outgaining the Dolphins 318-294 as it tried to come back. Jacksonville committed two turnovers to Miami’s none.
College football
— UAB (-7½) dominated in a 42-10 road victory at South Alabama. The game went over 47½. The Blazers led 28-10 at halftime. UAB (2-1) ended up outgaining South Alabama (1-2) in total yards 509-315.
NBA
— Spread bettors pushed as the Los Angeles Lakers (-6) defeated Denver 114-108 to take a 3-1 lead in the Western Conference Finals. The game went over 213½. Some Nuggets bettors who got in at the right time won at +6½. Anthony Davis led the Lakers with 34 points, and LeBron James had 26 points, nine rebounds and eight assists. The Lakers shot 35 free throws (making 28) to Denver’s 23 (making 20).
Hot Corner handicapper selection
Lightning -150
Dana Lane (@DanaLaneSports, 6-9, -3.57 units): It’s not an ideal number, but it’s the best we have when Tampa Bay is the side. It took a game for the Lightning to become an active participant in this series, but once they did, they have peppered the Stars with an average of 32 shots a game, resulting in eight goals after just one goal in Game 1.
Tampa Bay has jumped out to early leads in the past two games, forcing the Stars to play an uncomfortable catch-up game. The strength of the Stars has been defense, but until that gets cleaned up, I have to side with the Lightning, even at -150.
Contact Jim Barnes at jbarnes@reviewjournal.com or 702-383-0277. Follow @JimBarnesLV on Twitter.
