Weekend best bets: Contest leaders back same side in Lions-Packers

The Packers spoiled Thanksgiving last year for countless bettors and Survivor contestants when they dealt the Lions a 29-22 loss in Detroit as 7½-point underdogs.

Systemplays.com handicapper Doug Fitz and legendary sportscaster Brent Musburger are banking on Green Bay to cover against the Lions again Sunday, this time as a 2½-point home underdog at Lambeau Field.

“November brings weather into our handicapping and there’s no better place to start than in Green Bay, Wisconsin,” Musburger said. “Believe it or not, the Lions have not played a single game outside this entire season. Playing under ceilings in Dallas, Minneapolis and Detroit the last three weeks, the Lions are averaging (43.3) points a game.

“The forecast for Green Bay on Sunday afternoon calls for steady rain with winds reaching 15 mph. I’m barking loud for the home ’dog.”

Musburger is 24-16 against the spread (60 percent) in the Review-Journal NFL Challenge, two games behind contest leader Fitz (26-14, 65 percent).

“Detroit has been outgained in three of its six wins this season,” Fitz said. “Green Bay fits two excellent systems, namely that home ’dogs heading into their bye week are 32-17-2 ATS (65.3 percent) since 2015 and teams heading into their bye week facing a divisional opponent are 53-21-1 ATS (71.6 percent) since 2013.”

Here are five other weekend best bets, which are 22-11-2 ATS (66.7 percent) in the RJ the last six weeks (home team in CAPS):

FALCONS (-2½) over Cowboys

Professional sports bettor Jeff Whitelaw bet on Atlanta -2½ over Dallas, which has lost two straight and is 2-5 ATS this season.

“Atlanta’s got a good running game and Dallas just cannot stop the run, until a lot of their defensive guys come back,” Whitelaw said. “Atlanta’s playing very well. I think that they win.”

Broncos (+9) over RAVENS

Whitelaw also bet on Denver +10 over Baltimore. The line has dropped, but he still recommends a play on the Broncos a week after they covered as 13-point favorites in a 28-14 win over the Panthers.

“You don’t often see a double-digit favorite one week followed by a double-digit ’dog the next, although there are no more 10s,” Whitelaw said. “Denver has a good run defense and a very good defense (overall). They’re a much (improved) team.

“I thought the game should be closer to 7, so there’s a little value with Denver. It looks like too many points there.”

Colts (+5½) over VIKINGS

Pro handicapper Scott Kellen, who went 4-1 ATS last week in the RJ Challenge and is in second place with a 25-15 mark (62.5 percent), likes the Colts to cover their seventh straight game.

“The Colts are going with Joe Flacco over Anthony Richardson (at quarterback). I rate the two pretty close to even but their styles are drastically different,” said Kellen (@SixthSenseNFL). “Flacco gives the Colts a better chance if Indy is behind in the game because of his ability to consistently make more plays in the passing game.

“The Colts have not lost a game by more than six points all year.”

Chargers (-125) over BROWNS

Pro sports bettor Cris Zeniuk’s best bet is on the Chargers on the money line over the Browns.

“The model has the Chargers favored by considerably more than the market,” said Zeniuk (@lasvegascris). “The bonus is that the Chargers are almost fully healthy on offense finally and they face a hurting Browns defense.

“(Quarterback Jameis) Winston breathed some life back into Cleveland last week. But we know who he is, and he isn’t a 300-yard passer with no interceptions. Game 2 usually sees regression to normalcy.”

ILLINOIS (+3) over Minnesota

Former Station Casinos’ Last Man Standing college football contest winner Alex White went 5-0 ATS last week in the RJ College Challenge and is in first place with a 29-15-1 mark (65.6 percent).

Her best bet is Illinois over Minnesota.

”The Fighting Illini’s only losses this year are to No. 1 Oregon and No. 3 Penn State,” said White (@alexwhitee). “While Minnesota has an elite defense, Illinois has been tested. They’ve played one of the top 15 toughest schedules. I love this home ’dog getting a whole field goal.”

Contact reporter Todd Dewey at tdewey@reviewjournal.com. Follow @tdewey33 on X.