USC should overwhelm Arizona’s porous defense

Arizona finished last season with the 114th-best defense in the FBS, according to ESPN’s SP+ college football rankings.

Along with the typical losses to graduation, the Wildcats’ defense lost safety Scottie Young Jr. (66 tackles) to West Virginia and defensive end J.B. Brown (five tackles for loss) to an opt-out.

But the real crusher was losing linebackers Colin Schooler and Tony Fields III to Texas Tech and West Virginia, respectively. They combined for 194 tackles and 16 tackles for loss in 2019.

Down four projected defensive starters, the Wildcats now must face Southern California and quarterback Kedon Slovis, who threw for 3,502 yards as a true freshman and was 40 of 55 for 381 yards against Arizona State last week.

Maybe Arizona can run the ball to shorten the game. Maybe quarterback Grant Gunnell can score enough to cover. But the Wildcats were 3-8-1 ATS in Kevin Sumlin’s second season.

The market isn’t accounting for how bad the defense will be. I also don’t trust Sumlin to find a way to compete in a game in which his team is outmatched. USC’s close call with Arizona State probably is suppressing this number.

Take USC -14.

Three more plays (home team in CAPS):

WEST VIRGINIA (-3) over Texas Christian: The Mountaineers have allowed 10, 27, 14, 17, 34 and 17 points in regulation. The Horned Frogs have the nation’s 88th-ranked offense, according to SP+. Pro Football Focus gives West Virginia the top pass-coverage grade in the country. Looking at the big picture, these two programs and their head coaches are trending in opposite directions. I expect the Mountaineers to muster enough offense behind QB Jarret Doege to cover.

South Florida (+14) over HOUSTON: Cougars receiver/returner Marquez Stevenson is one of the most important players in the country. He was mostly healthy in double-digit wins over Tulane and Navy (a combined 14 catches for 247 yards and three touchdowns; kickoff return TD). In Houston’s three losses, Stevenson had two catches for 31 yards. He didn’t play last week against Cincinnati and seems unlikely to play this week. The Bulls lost by two at Temple and at Memphis in recent weeks and covered the closing number against Cincinnati.

Arkansas (+17) over FLORIDA: Pro Football Focus grades the Razorbacks’ pass coverage at 11th in the country. Florida tight end Kyle Pitts took a scary hit over the middle against Georgia and might not play. If that happens, the Razorbacks (6-0 ATS) are capable of matching up with the Gators’ outside receivers. Florida is coming off one of the team’s biggest wins in years and might be looking ahead to a Southeastern Conference championship game against Alabama. I question whether Florida, a poor tackling team, has fixed its defense or whether Missouri and Georgia just couldn’t field capable offenses.

Last week: 2-3

Season: 21-24

Christopher Smith of AL.com and BetOnline is providing college football analysis for the Las Vegas Review-Journal. Follow @cfblocksmith on Twitter.