Texas might be overvalued, so take underdog Louisiana Tech
Texas hosts Louisiana State next week in arguably the biggest nonconference game this season, so Longhorns coach Tom Herman won’t want to show every wrinkle Saturday against Louisiana Tech and will try to limit big hits on quarterback Sam Ehlinger.
The Longhorns are hurting at running back. Two players transferred, one is out for the season, three more are out for the game, and Keontay Ingram (bone bruise) and Jordan Whittington (hernia surgery) are playing at less than 100 percent.
Receiver Joshua Moore, who figured to be a significant player in the passing game, is suspended.
Three starters return from a Texas defense that slipped last season. Throw in the Longhorns’ 7-3 record in one-possession games and their bowl victory over Georgia, and Texas might be the most overvalued Power 5 team entering the season.
Louisiana Tech, which has averaged 8.4 wins in the last five seasons, lost at Arkansas by one point in 2016, lost at South Carolina by one point in 2017 and trailed LSU by a field goal deep into the fourth quarter last season.
The Bulldogs are capable of keeping this road game close. Take them at plus 20½ points.
Four more plays (home team in CAPS):
Virginia (-2½) over PITTSBURGH: The Panthers lost four starting offensive linemen, 2,357 rushing yards and 21 touchdowns from two running backs and the majority of their defensive front seven. Virginia has the better coach (Bronco Mendenhall), the better quarterback (Bryce Perkins) and the best defensive player (Bryce Hall).
Houston (+23½) over OKLAHOMA: One assumes that first-year Houston coach Dana Holgorsen will know what to do with QB D’Eriq King, who accounted for 50 touchdowns last season despite missing games in November. Houston’s receivers have speed, and former Texas running back Kyle Porter is an upgrade. This is Jalen Hurts’ first game as quarterback at Oklahoma operating behind an offensive line that’s starting over. Houston’s defense will give up touchdowns in bunches, but I anticipate the Cougars reaching the end zone plenty themselves.
Virginia Tech (-4½) over BOSTON COLLEGE: I have Virginia Tech as a borderline top 25 team and Boston College as a borderline top 60 team in my preseason power rankings. Expect a decent bounce-back season for the Hokies’ defense after the football gods conspired against them last season. Ryan Willis and the passing game should be pretty good. Boston College is too predictable on offense against opponents with superior talent. The Eagles’ defensive backs and both lines took major personnel hits.
TENNESSEE (-26) over Georgia State: This is a perfect matchup for the Vols. Tennessee’s underrated passing game should crush one of the worst pass defenses in the FBS, especially since Georgia State should do nothing to threaten an average Tennessee offensive line.
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Christopher Smith of AL.com, NOLA.com and MyBookie is providing college football analysis for the Las Vegas Review-Journal. Follow @cfblocksmith on Twitter.
