Texas A&M ready to cover against Auburn in SEC West showdown
Auburn quarterback Bo Nix has always struggled against top defenses, a trend that has continued this season.
Against Louisiana State, Arkansas and Mississippi — teams with an average defensive SP+ ranking of No. 55 — Nix completed 66 percent of his passes for 8.2 yards per attempt and rushed for 5.8 yards per carry.
Against Georgia (SP+ No. 1) and Penn State (No. 5), those numbers sagged to 56 percent, 5.4 yards per attempt and 0.8 yards per carry. Now Auburn must face Texas A&M (No. 7) on the road after the Aggies’ bye week.
Off its own bye last week, Auburn outgained a tired, injured Ole Miss team by just 19 yards. The Rebels got six points out of five red zone trips and turned the ball over on downs three times in the second half.
Prior to that, Arkansas outgained Auburn and earned nine more first downs. But Auburn scored a defensive touchdown, held the Razorbacks to 0-for-3 on fourth down and got long touchdown passes of 39 and 71 yards.
According to Pro Football Focus, Texas A&M’s offensive grade improved in each of its last four games. Quarterback Zach Calzada has shaken off the rust after not throwing double-digit passes since 2018. A rebuilt offensive line has started to get comfortable.
Take the Aggies -4½.
Four more plays (home team in CAPS):
GEORGIA (-39) over Missouri: The Tigers’ rush defense is 130th in Expected Points Added per snap. Missouri has allowed Vanderbilt, North Texas, Southeast Missouri State and Central Michigan to run for 229 yards per game on 5.8 yards per carry. Georgia runs the ball 62.7 percent of the time. Even with the outcome decided, the Bulldogs will keep moving the ball and getting into the end zone. Missouri QB Connor Bazelak isn’t healthy and the team force-fed Tyler Badie 39 touches last week. That’s not going to cut it against Georgia’s stout defense.
Louisiana-Monroe (+3½) over TEXAS STATE: The Warhawks have made money line bettors big money this season, winning outright +23½ vs. Troy, +32 vs. Liberty and +13½ vs. South Alabama. A fumble, interception, turnover on downs and pick-six saw Louisiana-Monroe trailing Appalachian State 49-7 last week. But the Warhawks clawed within 59-28 before fumbling at the goal line in the final minute on a play that would’ve covered the spread. Texas State is 121st in EPA per snap, hasn’t won a game in regulation all season and is coming off back-to-back road losses straight up and ATS.
Tennessee (-1) over KENTUCKY: The Wildcats are dealing with injuries on their offensive and defensive lines. Kentucky scored between 13 and 20 offensive points against South Carolina, Florida, Georgia and Mississippi State. Tennessee is healthy coming off a bye week and perhaps not getting enough credit after losing a total toss-up to Ole Miss and playing Alabama within a touchdown in the fourth quarter.
NORTH CAROLINA (-2½) over Wake Forest: The Tar Heels are the best team the Demon Deacons have faced. This is Wake Forest’s third road game in its last four outings. North Carolina is fourth in offensive SP+ and 15th in rushing EPA per snap. Quarterback Sam Howell is playing his best football of the season, completing 77.4 percent of his passes for 341 yards against Notre Dame and rushing for more than 90 yards in each of his last three games.
Last week: 2-3
Season: 25-20
Christopher Smith of AL.com is providing college football analysis for the Las Vegas Review-Journal. Follow @CFBlocksmith on Twitter.
