Sharp bettors take side, total in Super Bowl LV

Tom Brady will be an underdog Sunday for only the second time in his 10 Super Bowl appearances.

The Patriots were 14-point ‘dogs to the then-St. Louis Rams in Brady’s first Super Bowl in 2002, when he helped lead New England to a 20-17 upset of “The Greatest Show on Turf.”

Nineteen years later, sharp bettors are backing the old GOAT and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers as 3½-point underdogs to another offensive juggernaut in the Kansas City Chiefs in Super Bowl LV.

The Chiefs are consensus 3-point favorites (-120) at Las Vegas sportsbooks to become the first team since Brady’s 2004 Patriots to repeat as Super Bowl champions. But the line also has sat at 3½ at BetMGM, Station Casinos and the South Point, which has been flooded with sharp money on the Bucs every time it moves the line from 3 to 3½ (-110).

“As soon as I go to 3½, the sharps jump in like it’s the last 3½ they’ll ever see in their life,” South Point sportsbook director Chris Andrews said. “It’s just the race to see who can get down first.”

Professional sports bettors Rufus Peabody and Erin Rynning also like Tampa Bay +3½.

“I tend to think Kansas City is going to be the public side here,” said Peabody (@RufusPeabody). “I would bet Tampa Bay at +3½. I make the number Kansas City -1.9. It’s really what my numbers say.”

Most of the Super Bowl spotlight has been on Brady, 43, and Chiefs wunderkind QB Patrick Mahomes, 25. But Peabody said the main reason he’s backing the Bucs is because of the Chiefs’ battered offensive line, which will be missing its two starting tackles after All-Pro Eric Fisher tore his Achilles tendon in the AFC title game.

“The loss of Eric Fisher is huge. They’re challenged on the offensive line and going against a Tampa Bay front that is quite strong,” he said. “I don’t want to underestimate Andy Reid and what he can do, especially with two weeks to game plan. But I also think there’s a certain point where you have cluster injuries and you’re not able to do as much to compensate for that.”

The Bucs sacked Green Bay QB Aaron Rodgers five times in the NFC title game.

Rynning (@ersports1) said he made a relatively small bet for himself on Tampa +3½ after making the number 2½.

“While I believe the Chiefs are the best team all season, the Bucs are not far behind with a rock-solid coaching staff, obviously a plethora of big-game experience at QB, with their own dangerous weapons and the better defense,” he said.

Super rematch

K.C. beat Tampa Bay 27-24 on Nov. 29 behind monster games by Mahomes (462 passing yards) and Tyreek Hill, who had seven catches for 203 yards and two touchdowns in the first quarter. The Bucs, who were 3½-point underdogs, trailed 27-10 before salvaging a backdoor cover with two fourth-quarter TDs.

Tampa Bay hasn’t lost since, winning seven straight, and Westgate sportsbook vice president of risk Ed Salmons expects another tight contest in the rematch.

“It feels like a close game where probably a field goal decides it,” he said. “If feels like if you can get 3½, that’s a decent bet on Tampa.

“I can’t imagine a better scenario for Tampa, as far as the Chiefs having some issues on the offensive line. All they talk about is the quarterbacks. They just ignore the offensive and defensive lines. But that’s where the game is going to be won and lost.”

Pros vs. public

While the vast majority of money wagered on the Super Bowl pours into books in the 72 hours before kickoff, the early public action has been on the Chiefs ATS, Bucs on the money line (+150) and over the consensus total of 56½ points.

Sharp bettors wagered under the opening total of 57½ and 57 and the number dropped to 56 at the Westgate before a $22,000 bet on the over pushed it back to 56½.

“As we get close to game time, it wouldn’t surprise me if the sharps go under again,” Salmons said. “Just like all big totals, the sharps bet under, because that’s what they’re programmed to do.”

Contact reporter Todd Dewey at tdewey@reviewjournal.com. Follow @tdewey33 on Twitter.