Sharp bettors take side in Patriots-Bills matchup on ‘MNF’
So much for a changing of the guard in the AFC East.
A year after the Bills won their first division title in 25 years and ended the Patriots’ 11-year reign as AFC East champions, New England is back on top in the division heading into their matchup in Buffalo on “Monday Night Football.”
Sharp action on the Patriots +3 early in the week caused the line to drop to 2½ and the betting public also is backing New England.
Buffalo is back up to a consensus 3-point favorite at Las Vegas sportsbooks, with Circa Sports at -2½ (-120).
The ticket count is almost identical at BetMGM, where 20 more tickets were written on the Bills than the Patriots as of Monday afternoon.
“But we do need the Bills for a little bit,” MGM Resorts director of trading Jeff Stoneback said. “The money is 3-1 on the Patriots.”
A BetMGM bettor placed a $50,000 wager to win $50,000 on New England +2½ (Even).
The Westgate SuperBook also needs Buffalo as the betting public is on the Patriots.
With the weather forecast calling for wind gusts of more than 40 mph and temperatures in the 20s, the consensus total is down to 41 after it opened at 46.
“The total definitely moved under because of the wind,” Westgate SuperBook vice president of risk Ed Salmons said.
The total is as low as 40½ at the Westgate and Caesars.
Buffalo (7-4) has been inconsistent, alternating wins and losses in its past seven games. In their most recent home game, the Bills were blown out 41-15 by the Colts on Nov. 21.
The Patriots (8-4) have won and covered six straight games and are riding a 19-8 cover streak as underdogs. Before getting swept by Buffalo last season, New England had won 35 of the last 40 meetings with the Bills. The Patriots are on a 6-1 ATS run at Buffalo.
“This is a huge game for both teams. Buffalo does play at Tampa next week so we could be looking at Buffalo possibly losing back to back games,” Red Rock Resort sportsbook director Chuck Esposito said. “A win would catapult the Bills back into one of the top teams in the AFC.”
The teams are evenly matched on paper as New England has the No. 1 scoring defense, allowing 15.8 points per game, and Buffalo is No. 2 (16.5 ppga).
The Bills are second in scoring (29.6 ppg) and the Patriots are sixth (28.0 ppg).
New England is 8-4 ATS and Buffalo is 6-4-1 ATS.
“If both teams have to run the ball, you have to give the advantage to the Patriots,” SuperBook vice president Jay Kornegay said. “(Bills quarterback Josh) Allen can scramble but certainly the Patriots have the better running game.”
Contact reporter Todd Dewey at tdewey@reviewjournal.com. Follow @tdewey33 on Twitter.
