QBs, sharp money cause line moves on Raiders-Panthers game

It’s unusual for a team to bench its starting quarterback and then see the betting line move in its favor. But that’s what happened to the lowly Carolina Panthers this week.

The Raiders opened as consensus 7-point favorites over the Panthers in Sunday’s game at Allegiant Stadium and were as high as -7½ at Station Sports. But when news broke Monday that Carolina has benched 2023 No. 1 overall pick Bryce Young and named veteran quarterback Andy Dalton the starter, the consensus line on the game dropped to 5½ and as low as 4½ at the SuperBook.

“There has been some optimism on the Panthers all three games so far, but Bryce Young hasn’t been able to get anything going, so the thought is Dalton will pick up the offense more,” Circa sportsbook risk manager Dylan Sullivan said.

Carolina has been outscored 73-13 this season in losses to the Saints (47-10) and Chargers (26-3) as Young fell to 2-16 as a starter.

The Raiders (1-1, 1-1 ATS) enter their home opener riding high after last week’s 26-23 upset at Baltimore as 9-point road underdogs.

“We actually opened at 7½ thinking that it’s probably going to be one of the most heavily bet games on the board in favor of the Raiders,” Red Rock Resort sportsbook director Chuck Esposito said. “They’re playing a team that you can make a case is at the bottom of the board in the NFL. I was kind of surprised the line dropped a full two points.

“I know quarterbacks make a big difference, but you’re talking about a guy that’s not very mobile and hasn’t played a lot the past year. But that shows you what the betting public thinks of Bryce Young.”

Esposito said Station Sports took sharp play on the Panthers at +7½ and +7. The Westgate SuperBook had the lowest number after taking respected play on Carolina at +5½.

“There was sharp money on Carolina season stuff going into the season, like over their win total,” SuperBook director John Murray said. “You almost cannot play any worse than they’re playing, but we thought they were going to be a halfway competitive team. We saw sharp players take them in Week 1 against New Orleans, again last week against the Chargers, and it’s coming in again this week.

“Maybe the team will rally a little bit around the new quarterback.”

The consensus line crept back up to -6 on Friday after a respected group backed the Raiders at -5. The line is still -5½ at the South Point.

Best bets

The total is 40 after climbing as high as 41½.

Professional sports bettor Cris Zeniuk recommends a play on the game to go over 40.

“Dalton filled in last year and threw for 361 yards and two touchdowns. I think he can get Carolina in the end zone this week in his nothing-to-lose role,” said Zeniuk (@lasvegascris). “(Raiders quarterback Gardner) Minshew has thrown for 250-plus yards in both games, and they have been able to move the ball.

“There are trends that point to the over when teams are winless and on the road that only help this look.”

Handicapper Doug Fitz made the Raiders his best bet last week, when he went 4-1 against the spread. But he’s fading the Raiders in this one.

“The Raiders are in a prime letdown spot after pulling off one of their biggest wins since moving to Las Vegas,” said Fitz (Systemplays.com). “Carolina is starting the capable and experienced veteran, Andy Dalton. The Raiders are 1-10 ATS when favored by more than a field goal. I would not be surprised if Carolina wins straight up.”

Contact reporter Todd Dewey at tdewey@reviewjournal.com. Follow @tdewey33 on X.