Pro bettor likes Raiders to top alternate NFL win total at Circa

The Raiders not only soared over last season’s win total of 7 at Circa Sports en route to a 10-7 record. But they also flew over their alternate win total of 8, which paid +160 at the sportsbook.

Will the Raiders reach double-digit wins in consecutive seasons for the first time since 2002?

Gamblers can bet on it at Circa, which posted alternate win totals on every NFL team. The book made each team’s alternate high total one win higher than its standard season win total and each team’s alternate low one win lower.

For example, the Raiders’ standard total is 8½ (-110). But bettors can get a bigger bang for their buck wagering over the alternate high of 9½, which pays +190.

“You certainly get a much better payout than over 8½ but that’s a significant difference and it’s going to be tough in the AFC and tough in the AFC West, for sure,” Circa NFL oddsmaker Chris Bennett said.

On the flip side, the Raiders’ alternate low total is 7½ and the over is a -215 favorite. Professional sports bettor Jeff Whitelaw already bet the Raiders to go over their standard win total of 8½ and he also recommends a play on over 7½.

“Circa knows what they are doing with the alternate wins. They are priced correctly,” Whitelaw said. “I do play them but only when I like the real number.

“I would play them over 7½ -215 if I played but haven’t so far.”

The Buffalo Bills have the highest alternate total of 13 (over +245/under -290), followed by the Tampa Bay Buccaneers at 12½ (o+185/u-215) and Green Bay Packers at 12 (o+205/u-240).

The Houston Texans have the lowest alternate total of 3½ (o-210/u+180), followed by the Atlanta Falcons at 4 (o-210/u+180) and Seattle Seahawks at 4½ (o-260/u+220).

Sharp bets

Bennett said Circa took a sharp bet on the Falcons to go over their alternate high of 6 at +250. Over 6 now pays +220 on Atlanta, which went 7-10 last season and signed former Raiders quarterback Marcus Mariota to replace Matt Ryan, who was traded to the Indianapolis Colts.

“How bad they were last year and trading Matt Ryan, the public definitely doesn’t like that team. But we took a bet over that number,” Bennett said. “And we get a little action on people trying to middle these things, betting under the alternate high and over the alternate low.”

The NFL hasn’t announced whether Browns QB Deshaun Watson will be suspended over allegations of sexual assault. He has been cleared of criminal charges but still faces 24 civil lawsuits.

But sharp bettors are banking on Cleveland to go under its alternate win totals of 10½ (-235) and 8½ (+180).

“We definitely respected those bets,” Bennett said. “I know what the thought is there, that Deshaun Watson is not going to be available for all of their games. I guess we don’t know who the quarterback is going to be but Baker Mayfield is still on the roster. He was last year and the market loved the Browns before the season.

“I don’t know what the league will do. But I keep going back to what was the opinion of the team last year with Baker Mayfield when they were 10½ on season wins. Now they have Deshaun Watson and they’re 9½.”

Cleveland, which also acquired four-time Pro Bowl wide receiver Amari Cooper after going 8-9 last season, has QB Jacoby Brissett as well.

“I understand the division has gotten better and I know Baker said ‘We’re done,’” Bennett said. “But I’m not convinced that the Browns will be bad without Deshaun Watson.”

Contact reporter Todd Dewey at tdewey@reviewjournal.com. Follow @tdewey33 on Twitter.