Odds, horse-by-horse analysis for 2021 Travers Stakes

Michael “The Wizard” Kipness has been a professional horse racing handicapper since 1987 and has been featured in The New York Times.

From Saratoga Race Course, the Las Vegas resident (@WizardPicks) analyzes the seven-horse field in Saturday’s 152nd Travers Stakes, designating each horse as a contender or a pretender.

Kipness’ full card selections and wagering strategies for the Travers — aka the Midsummer Derby — are available at wizardraceandsports.com.

Post position, horse, jockey, odds:

1. Midnight Bourbon, Ricardo Santana Jr., 9-2

Clipped heels in the stretch, losing his rider in the Haskell. Clearly second best in the Preakness. Breaking from the rail in the Travers, expect rider Ricardo Santana to waste no time putting him on the lead. The main obstacle is if he can carry his speed 1¼ miles. Gets an upgrade in riders to Ricardo Santana, who is Hall of Fame trainer Steve Asmussen’s main go-to jock. Contender.

2. Essential Quality, Luis Saez, 4-5

The deserving favorite has won seven of his eight starts, with his lone blemish a very good fourth place in the Kentucky Derby. Overcame a very tough trip in winning the Jim Dandy on July 31 in his first start at Saratoga. Worked a brilliant five furlongs over this track on Aug. 14. Has the heart of a lion. To beat him in the Travers, you must look him in the eye and prove you have the class and grit to fend him off when the real racing begins. Trainer Brad Cox continues to have an outstanding Saratoga meet. Contender.

3. Keepmeinmind, Joel Rosario, 6-1

Rode the rail in his narrow defeat to Essential Quality in the Jim Dandy. Enjoyed the rider switch to Rosario, who had him sitting a perfect trip throughout. He had every chance to upset the favorite that day. He could not, and it’s doubtful that he’ll be able to replicate or improve on that performance in the Travers. Pretender.

4. Dynamic One, Irad Ortiz Jr., 6-1

This colt was simply not ready to handle the grueling 1¼ miles in the Kentucky Derby, finishing 18th. He was given three months off, using a small stake at Saratoga to get him ready for the Travers. Reunited with Ortiz Jr, he was taken back to the rear of the field. When Ortiz asked him to make his move, Dynamic One responded with a huge run, going from last to first in a blink of an eye, prevailing by 1¾ lengths. He ran his career-best race that day, looking more physically imposing than at any time in his career. Dynamic One is bred beautifully to handle 1¼ miles. He’s in the hands of top trainer Todd Pletcher, whose barn has been on a roll the last two weeks at Saratoga. Contender.

5. Miles D, Flavian Prat, 12-1

This steadily improving colt from leading Saratoga trainer Chad Brown exits a career-best race, finishing a clear second to Dynamic One on July 30 in his first start at Saratoga. With only three career starts, Miles D is by far the least experienced horse in the Travers. The breeding is there to handle 1¼ miles, as well as the hottest trainer in the country. Brown won a total of eight races Wednesday and Thursday at Saratoga. Miles D gets a rider change to Flavian Prat, who is one of the best in America, if not the best, and is expected to go off at double-digit odds. Contender.

6. Masqueparade, Miguel Mena, 8-1

Comes into the Travers in peak form following a pair of back-to-back wins. He has good tactical speed but will have to contend with the speed of Midnight Bourbon. Masqueparade appears overmatched and is not bred well for this distance. Pretender.

7. King Fury, Jose Ortiz, 15-1

Switches back to the dirt, which is clearly his preferred surface. King Fury has proven to be a cut below his Travers rivals in previous races. Trainer Ken McPeek is also having an awful Saratoga meet. Pretender.