NFL Week 18 betting breakdown: Predictions for every game
NFL BETTING BREAKDOWN
Scott Kellen, @SixthSenseNFL
Chargers (10-6) at Raiders (4-12)
Time: 1:25 p.m., CBS
Line/total: Chargers -5, 41
Analysis: The Chargers are sitting at the No. 6 seed. If Pittsburgh loses Saturday, the Chargers could move up to the 5 seed, which is more desirable as they would play at Houston instead of Baltimore. Without knowing the Pittsburgh result at the time of this writing, I will lean on the Chargers, assuming they are playing to win this game.
Pick: Chargers 29, Raiders 22
Saints (5-11) at Buccaneers (9-7)
Time: 10 a.m., Fox
Line/total: Buccaneers -14, 43½
Analysis: A Tampa Bay win and it is in the playoffs. Saints quarterback Spencer Rattler looked good in the second half of the Washington game two weeks ago. But in two starts since, he hasn’t been very good. The Saints have been decimated by injuries at wide receiver and offensive line and are down to third-string players at some positions. Now they play a Tampa Bay team that can put up 30 points in a heartbeat, while the Saints have scored more than 14 points just once since mid-November. With all that said, the price tag on this game is expensive for Tampa Bay.
Pick: Buccaneers 27, Saints 14
Bills (13-3) at Patriots (3-13)
Time: 10 a.m., CBS
Line/total: Bills -3, 37
Analysis: Buffalo has nothing to play for and will rest starters. Quarterback Josh Allen will play to continue his consecutive starts streak, but will likely exit very early. While no team will say it wants to lose, New England is in position for the No. 1 pick in the draft. The Patriots don’t need a quarterback but could acquire other draft picks with a trade down. Losing is the best option for the future of the franchise. However, rookie QB Drake Maye will start this game for New England, and it’s hard to say which Bills starters won’t play.
Pick: Patriots 23, Bills 20
Bears (4-12) at Packers (11-5)
Time: 10 a.m.
Line/total: Packers -10, 41
Analysis: Green Bay is the No. 7 seed and needs Washington to lose to move up to the No. 6 seed, which is much more desirable to avoid the Philadelphia Eagles in the wild-card round and the No. 1 seed in the divisional round off a bye. Packers coach Matt LaFleur has said he will play to win. Green Bay will play its starters who aren’t in danger of further injury, but it will also likely rest its most valuable starters at some point. Chicago hasn’t been good, having lost 10 straight games, and hasn’t been particularly competitive in recent losses on the road. But this line still seems a little steep, knowing Green Bay will likely pull its starters at some point.
Pick: Packers 27, Bears 20
Jaguars (4-12) at Colts (7-9)
Time: 10 a.m.
Line/total: Colts -4½, 44
Analysis: This game has no playoff implications. Veteran QB Joe Flacco is expected to start for the Colts again this week in place of injured QB Anthony Richardson. That’s a bonus for Jacksonville, having a statue sitting in the pocket instead of Richardson, who can scramble. The Colts have defeated only one team by more than six points this season. Jacksonville has played close games this season when not facing elite teams.
Pick: Jaguars 24, Colts 23
Panthers (4-12) at Falcons (8-8)
Time: 10 a.m.
Line/total: Falcons -8, 47½
Analysis: Atlanta needs a win and a Tampa Bay loss to make the playoffs. Carolina had a nice run when it went 3-4 over a seven-week period. The losses were by three, three, six and 16 points to Kansas City, Tampa Bay, Philadelphia and Dallas, so no shame there. But six of those seven games were at home. The Panthers went back on the road last week and were blown out by the Buccaneers. Carolina has numerous injuries that impacted it last week and will likely do so again this week. Now the Panthers, who have one of the worst rush defenses in the league, will face a Falcons team that wants to run it every play. This is a bad matchup for Carolina.
Pick: Falcons 32, Panthers 17
Commanders (11-5) at Cowboys (7-9)
Time: 10 a.m.
Line/total: Commanders -7, 44
Analysis: Washington needs a win to remain the No. 6 seed. While Washington should win this game, the Commanders have injury concerns along their offensive line. Dallas has its own injury concerns and shut down receiver CeeDee Lamb last week. Washington has won only one game on the road this season by more than five points.
Pick: Commanders 26, Cowboys 20
Texans (9-7) at Titans (3-13)
Time: 10 a.m.
Line/total: Titans -1½, 37
Analysis: Houston is locked into the No. 4 seed. Coach DeMeco Ryans said, “Everybody has to be ready to go, and we’ll see how the game goes.” Read between the lines. The Texans will play starters who don’t have injury concerns, but it’s anybody’s guess how long they will play. But as bad as the Texans have looked the past few weeks, one would expect them to play their starters for longer than a courtesy appearance to at least have some momentum going into their playoff game next week. If Houston plays the majority of its starters for most of the game, there is clear value on the Texans. A first-half play on Houston may be the better play.
Pick: Texans 24, Titans 20
Giants (3-13) at Eagles (13-3)
Time: 10 a.m.
Line/total: Eagles -3, 37
Analysis: Philadelphia is locked into the No. 2 seed and will rest starters. Not knowing exactly who will or won’t play for the Eagles, it’s hard to predict a score. But you can only rest so many players, and the Giants have plenty of injuries themselves. I still show value on Philadelphia despite it likely resting the majority of its key skill position players.
Pick: Eagles 21, Giants 17
Dolphins (8-8) at Jets (4-12)
Time: 1:25 p.m., Fox
Line/total: Dolphins -1, 39
Analysis: Miami needs a win and a Denver loss to make the playoffs. Tyler Huntley started at quarterback last week for the Dolphins and is expected to start again this week. The Jets have plenty of injuries, and it appears QB Aaron Rodgers will start this week. Rodgers needs one touchdown pass for 500 in his career, and this could be his last game. With Miami QB Tua Tagovailoa unlikely to play, the Jets could win this game, although one must pay attention to all the Jets starters who haven’t practiced and might not play.
Pick: Jets 26, Dolphins 18
Chiefs (15-1) at Broncos (9-7)
Time: 1:25 p.m.
Line/total: Broncos -10½, 39½
Analysis: A Broncos win and they are in the playoffs. Kansas City will rest starters, and Carson Wentz will start at quarterback. But you can only place so many players on the inactive list. Defensive end Chris Jones, QB Patrick Mahomes and some of the Chiefs’ offensive linemen and receivers will likely rest. But tight end Noah Gray playing instead of Travis Kelce isn’t a massive drop-off, and Kansas City has similar situations at other positions. This is a pretty big jump and price to be laying for Denver despite the Chiefs resting starters.
Pick: Broncos 23, Chiefs 18
Seahawks (9-7) at Rams (10-6)
Time: 1:25 p.m.
Line/total: Seahawks -6½, 39
Analysis: The Rams will rest starters, including QB Matthew Stafford, running back Kyren Williams and receivers Puka Nacua and Cooper Kupp. That creates value on Seattle.
Pick: Seahawks 27, Rams 20
49ers (6-10) at Cardinals (7-9)
Time: 1:25 p.m.
Line/total: Cardinals -5, 43
Analysis: This game has no playoff implications. Niners QB Brock Purdy was hurt Monday night and will not play. Joshua Dobbs gets the start for San Francisco, which was already playing without multiple offensive linemen. This was a 49ers team that had much bigger aspirations this season. With all of their hopes gone and this being the last game of the season, on top of all the injuries, it wouldn’t surprise me if they mail this one in. This is a chance for Arizona to finish the season off right and begin to set the table for next season.
Pick: Cardinals 24, 49ers 17
Vikings (14-2) at Lions (14-2)
Time: 5:20 p.m., NBC
Line/total: Lions -3, 56½
Analysis: The NFC’s No. 1 seed goes to the winner and all the way to the No. 5 seed for the 14-3 loser. And while the top seed will get a bye and home-field advantage, the loser will likely go on the road for the majority of the playoffs. This total opened around 51 and was bumped up after Monday night to as high as 57. Despite the big move, there is still value to the over. Vikings coach Kevin O’Connell is 8-2 to the over as a road underdog, while Lions coach Dan Campbell is 14-6 to the over as a home favorite. The Lions have scored 30 points or more in 14 of those 20 home games as a favorite and 40 or more in nine of those games. Campbell will manage this game aggressively. He knows the Lions need to score because their defense is so banged up. Likewise, O’Connell will be aggressive knowing his team needs to at least get into the 30s to have a chance to win this game. Despite the issues on defense for Detroit, its offense is so good that this line also presents some value on the home team.
Pick: Lions 35, Vikings 30
