NFL Week 11 betting breakdown: Predictions for every game

BETTING BREAKDOWN

Dana Lane, PickDawgz.com, @DanaLaneSports

Raiders (2-7) at Dolphins (3-6)

Time: 10 a.m., CBS

Line/total: Dolphins -7, 44

Analysis: Miami is 2-3 in its past five games, but its three losses have been by a combined 10 points, with the Dolphins holding second-half leads in all three defeats. Despite a 3-6 record, Miami has a chance to re-enter the postseason conversation with upcoming games against teams with losing records in the Raiders and Patriots. Meanwhile, the Raiders have lost five straight, often looking lethargic and disinterested, with an average losing margin of 13 points per game. Expect the Raiders to put up a fight in the first half but fail to cover in the end.

Pick: Dolphins 24, Raiders 16

Packers (6-3) at Bears (4-5)

Time: 10 a.m.

Line/total: Packers -5½, 40½

Analysis: The Packers are set to face their longtime rivals after a well-timed bye week. This break has given Green Bay quarterback Jordan Love the chance to recover significantly from his MCL sprain, bringing him closer to full health. When it comes to handicapping, start with the offensive line. Given the Bears’ recent struggles, including allowing nine sacks to the Patriots and a dismal 1-for-14 performance on third down, it’s hard to bet on them.

Pick: Packers 20, Bears 13

Browns (2-7) at Saints (3-7)

Time: 10 a.m.

Line/total: Browns -1, 44½

Analysis: Few teams in the league have experienced as many highs and lows as New Orleans. The Saints started the season strong, outscoring the Cowboys and Panthers 91-29 to go 2-0. They then suffered a seven-game losing streak, leading to coach Dennis Allen’s dismissal. Last week’s surprising 20-17 victory over the Falcons as 3½-point underdogs offered some relief. But for the Saints to continue winning, they must improve their run defense.

Pick: Saints 21, Browns 17

Rams (4-5) at Patriots (3-7)

Time: 10 a.m.

Line/total: Rams -4½, 43½

Analysis: The Rams stumbled against the Dolphins on Monday night, but let’s not overlook their three-game winning streak before that. Given the Patriots’ nine-sack performance last week, the Rams will likely focus on getting the ball quickly to Cooper Kupp or Puka Nacua to exploit the Patriots’ weak secondary. Since 2022, the Patriots have a 16-25-3 record against the spread, with only the Panthers performing worse (16-26-2 ATS).

Pick: Rams 21, Patriots 16

Ravens (7-3) at Steelers (7-2)

Time: 10 a.m.

Line/total: Ravens -3, 48½

Analysis: The battle for control of the AFC North heats up. Baltimore has been on a roll, winning seven of its past eight games (5-2-1 ATS), while Pittsburgh has won and covered four straight. Many had written off Steelers quarterback Russell Wilson. However, since stepping in for Justin Fields, Wilson has led Pittsburgh to an average of 30.3 points per game, covering all three of his starts.

Pick: Steelers 28, Ravens 26

Jaguars (2-8) at Lions (8-1)

Time: 10 a.m.

Line/total: Lions -14, 46½

Analysis: I’m more interested in the total than the side in this one, as I tend to avoid double-digit favorites. The Lions haven’t had a convincing win since they defeated the Titans 52-14 three weeks ago. But I’ll give Detroit a pass for last week’s 26-23 win over the Texans, when it took them more than three quarters to wake up. Winning on the road is tough, and winning back-to-back road games in the NFL is even tougher. Expect Lions quarterback Jared Goff and the Detroit defense to bounce back.

Pick: Lions 23, Jaguars 7

Vikings (7-2) at Titans (2-7)

Time: 10 a.m.

Line/total: Vikings -6, 39½

Analysis: The total has dropped 2½ points to 39½, but with most of the public’s money on the over, don’t expect it to go any lower. Jump on the over quickly. It’s concerning to back Vikings quarterback Sam Darnold, who has thrown five interceptions in the past two games. But Minnesota’s running game should rejuvenate Darnold and his primary target, Justin Jefferson — who has faced a successful safety split scheme — if it can find more success than its average of 120.2 rushing yards per game.

Pick: Vikings 28, Titans 20

Colts (4-6) at Jets (3-7)

Time: 10 a.m.

Line/total: Jets -4, 43½

Analysis: Indianapolis coach Shane Steichen, a former UNLV quarterback, announced that second-year quarterback Anthony Richardson will return to the starting role this week. The Jets have lost six of their past seven games straight-up and ATS. The culture in New York isn’t positive, especially since interim coach Jeff Ulbrich took over for the fired Robert Saleh. The Jets are 9-17-1 ATS and 3-6-1 as favorites dating back to last season.

Pick: Colts 21, Jets 16

Seahawks (4-5) at 49ers (5-4)

Time: 1:05 p.m., Fox

Line/total: 49ers -6½, 48

Analysis: The Seahawks will welcome back their leading receiver, DK Metcalf, after he recovered from an MCL sprain. This is timely news, especially since 49ers quarterback Brock Purdy boasts a 5-0 record against Seattle and is fresh off a 353-yard performance in San Francisco’s 23-20 win over Tampa Bay. The Niners are 4-5 ATS overall and 3-5 ATS in their past eight games. Meanwhile, Seattle has accumulated 54 road wins since 2013, the third-most in the NFL.

Pick: 49ers 24, Seahawks 20

Falcons (6-4) at Broncos (5-5)

Time: 1:05 p.m.

Line/total: Broncos -2, 44½

Analysis: The Falcons were caught off-guard last week, losing 20-17 to the Saints as road favorites. Statistically, Atlanta should have won, but kicker Younghoe Koo missed three field goals and the pass rush was nonexistent. Falcons coach Raheem Morris should give the ball to running back Bijan Robinson as much as the game allows, because the former Texas Longhorn is becoming a star.

Pick: Falcons 21, Broncos 20

Chiefs (9-0) at Bills (8-2)

Time: 1:25 p.m., CBS

Line/total: Bills -2, 45½

Analysis: Despite Kansas City’s success, its record ATS since the 2020 season is just 44-43-2. The Bills have won the past three regular-season meetings with the Chiefs and covered four of the past five. The postseason is a different story, as Kansas City has won the past three meetings in the playoffs. The Chiefs will blitz frequently, but expect Buffalo quarterback Josh Allen to exploit the Kansas City secondary under pressure. The Chiefs rank third in the league in blitzes but only 25th in sacks.

Pick: Bills 23, Chiefs 20

Bengals (4-6) at Chargers (6-3)

Time: 5:20 p.m., NBC

Line/total: Chargers -1½, 48

Analysis: The Chargers have won and covered three consecutive games, improving to 6-2-1 or 6-3 ATS, depending on the line in their 17-10 loss to Kansas City. Los Angeles will need to contain Cincinnati’s skilled playmakers, but its secondary has been a strength all season. This matchup will likely come down to Chargers quarterback Justin Herbert versus Bengals QB Joe Burrow and who can make the fewest mistakes. I’m backing Herbert at home in what should be a fantastic way to cap off the Sunday slate.

Pick: Chargers 27, Bengals 23

Texans (6-4) at Cowboys (3-6)

Time: 5:15 p.m. Monday, ABC, ESPN

Line/total: Texans -7, 42

Analysis: The state of the Cowboys’ culture is concerning. While fans can point to injuries and even the sun being an issue, the real problem dates back to the offseason. The wealthiest team in the NFL chose not to be active in free agency, sending a message that the organization has shifted from a win-at-all-costs mentality to a 3-6 football team. I can’t support them with Dak Prescott at quarterback, and I certainly can’t with Cooper Rush, who relies on a depleted defense to provide short fields. Funny how the Cowboys were winners of 36 of 51 overall heading into the 2024 season and not once did I hear about a problem with the sun.

Pick: Texans 21, Cowboys 13