NFL Week 10 betting breakdown: Predictions for every game

Giants (2-7) vs. Panthers (2-7), at Munich

■ Time: 6:30 a.m., NFLN

■ Line/total: Giants -6½, 40

■ Analysis: Believe it or not, the Giants have never lost an international series game. They’re 3-0 and won outright as a 9½-point underdog against the Packers in 2022. But what I really like is the under. All five international games went under last year. This season, they’re 2-1 to the under. It also helps that Giants quarterback Daniel Jones has a quarterback rating of 82.9, which is 27th in the NFL.

■ Pick: Giants 21, Panthers 10

Bills (7-2) at Colts (4-5)

■ Time: 10 a.m.

■ Line/total: Bills -4, 46½

■ Analysis: The Bills could be looking ahead to next week’s rematch with the Chiefs, who beat them again in a close playoff game last season. The Bills are 0-4 straight up and 0-3-1 against the spread in their last four games prior to facing Kansas City. The Colts are 7-1 ATS in their last eight games against AFC East opponents. Indianapolis is 7-2 ATS this season.

■ Pick: Colts 21, Bills 17

Vikings (6-2) at Jaguars (2-7)

■ Time: 10 a.m.

■ Line/total: Vikings -7, 43

■ Analysis: Minnesota is on a 3-7 ATS run heading into the first of consecutive road games. Jaguars coach Doug Pederson is 14-7-1 ATS in his career as a home underdog. The Vikings could come out flat following last week’s come-from-behind victory over the Colts at home on “Sunday Night Football.” I can also see Minnesota being overconfident playing an inferior opponent in Jacksonville.

■ Pick: Jaguars 23, Vikings 21

Steelers (6-2) at Commanders (7-2)

■ Time: 10 a.m.

■ Line/total: Commanders -2½, 45

■ Analysis: Pittsburgh is 5-0 ATS in its last five games against NFC opponents. Steelers quarterback Russell Wilson is 18-4-1 ATS in his career as an underdog against opponents coming off back-to-back wins, including 11-0-1 ATS when getting four points or less. Wilson has a QB rating of 111.9 with three touchdown passes and no interceptions, albeit only after two starts.

■ Pick: Steelers 24, Commanders 21

Falcons (6-3) at Saints (2-7)

■ Time: 10 a.m.

■ Line/total: Falcons -3½, 46½

■ Analysis: Sometimes you have to hold your nose and play ugly ’dogs. The Saints have lost seven in a row after an impressive 2-0 start to the season and fired coach Dennis Allen on Monday. Over the last 30 games after a coach has been fired, teams are 18-12 ATS, although that system lost earlier this season after the Jets fired Robert Saleh. I have a feeling the Saints did not like playing for Allen, so I think they’ll be a motivated home ’dogs.

■ Pick: Saints 24, Falcons 20

Broncos (5-4) at Chiefs (8-0)

■ Time: 10 a.m., CBS

■ Line/total: Chiefs -8, 42

■ Analysis: Kansas City coach Andy Reid is only 43-55 ATS in his last 98 games when favored by more than seven points. The Chiefs play a lot of close games, and Denver is 4-1 ATS in its last five games against Kansas City. The Broncos are also 16-11-1 ATS in their last 28 games as underdogs to the Chiefs.

■ Pick: Chiefs 31, Broncos 27

49ers (4-4) at Buccaneers (4-5)

■ Time: 10 a.m., Fox

■ Line/total: 49ers -6½, 50

■ Analysis: San Francisco running back Christian McCaffrey is scheduled to return to action after missing his team’s first eight games with Achilles tendinitis. The 49ers are 11-7 ATS over their last 18 games coming off a nondivision home game. Road favorites coming out of their bye week are 92-58-4 ATS (61.3 percent) since 1999.

■ Pick: 49ers 27, Buccaneers 18

Patriots (2-7) at Bears (4-4)

■ Time: 10 a.m.

■ Line/total: Bears -6, 38½

■ Analysis: This is an ugly game and hard to handicap. The Pats are 5-2 ATS in their last seven games against NFC North opponents. The Bears are 8-2 ATS over their last 10 games as home favorites. I don’t have a strong opinion on this one.

■ Pick: Bears 21, Patriots 16

Titans (2-6) at Chargers (5-3)

■ Time: 1:05 p.m.

■ Line/total: Chargers -7½, 39

■ Analysis: The Chargers are only the sixth team since 1990 to give up 20 points or less in their first eight games. The Titans have scored more than 20 points only once this season. The only way to play this one is to take the under.

■ Pick: Chargers 17, Titans 13

Eagles (6-2) at Cowboys (3-5)

■ Time: 1:25 p.m., CBS

■ Line/total: Eagles -7½, 43

■ Analysis: The Cowboys could be better off without quarterback Dak Prescott. Backup quarterback Cooper Rush is 5-1 straight-up and ATS as a starter. Dallas is 9-1 ATS in its last 10 NFC East division home games. The home team in this series is 10-1 straight-up and ATS so home field means a great deal when these teams play each other. The Eagles are 3-9 ATS in their last 12 division road games. The number is an overreaction to the Prescott injury.

■ Pick: Cowboys 28, Eagles 24

Jets (3-6) at Cardinals (5-4)

■ Time: 1:25 p.m.

■ Line/total: Jets -1½, 46½

■ Analysis: This is a tale of opposing teams going in opposite directions. The Jets are coming off of their first win following a five-game losing streak. Quarterback Aaron Rodgers has been mediocre and wide receiver Davante Adams has mostly been missing in action since being acquired in a trade with the Raiders three weeks ago. The Cardinals have won three in a row and they are on an 8-3 ATS run in games before their bye week.

■ Pick: Cardinals 28, Jets 20

Lions (7-1) at Texans (6-3)

■ Time: 5:20 p.m., NBC

■ Line/total: Lions -3½, 49

■ Analysis: I can’t bet against the Lions, who lead the NFL with a 7-1 ATS record and are on an extended 40-15 cover streak overall. One particular trend in Houston’s favor is quarterback C.J. Stroud is 6-0 ATS as an underdog of two points or more against opponents with a .500 record or better. The preferable play is on the over. The two teams could reach the total by halftime given their respective styles.

■ Pick: Lions 37, Texans 31

Dolphins (2-6) at Rams (4-4)

■ Time: 5:15 p.m. Monday, ESPN

■ Line/total: Rams -1½, 49

■ Analysis: The Rams have won three in a row and their offense with quarterback Matthew Stafford is clicking on all cylinders. Miami keeps shooting itself in the foot with stupid penalties. Last week, an unnecessary personal foul on the Dolphins kept Buffalo’s final drive alive, allowing the Bills to win the game on Tyler Bass’ 61-yard field goal with five seconds left. The Rams are 1-6 ATS in their last seven games against AFC East opponents. I still like Los Angeles at home against struggling Miami.

■ Pick: Rams 31, Dolphins 27