NFL forecast: Take 5-7 Lions as favorites over 10-2 Vikings

A few weeks ago, many bettors were surprised when the 6-3 Dallas Cowboys were 2½-point road favorites over the 8-1 Minnesota Vikings.

But oddsmakers, who rely on power ratings rather than win-loss records, made the right team the favorite as the Cowboys crushed Minnesota 40-3.

Sportsbooks posted a similar line this week when they made the 5-7 Detroit Lions 2-point home favorites over the 10-2 Vikings.

Circa sportsbook operations manager Jeff Benson gave his take on the line Monday on Twitter (@JeffreyBenson12).

“This week the mighty world beater Minnesota Vikings take their inflated 10-2 record & +10 point differential on the road where they are a dog to the lowly 5-7 Detroit Lions,” he wrote. “No, Vegas isn’t trying to trap you. This is simply what the market thinks of this very league average team.”

This is only the 10th time in the Super Bowl era that a team with a winning percentage of at least .800 is an underdog to a team with a losing record in December or January, according to ESPN. In the previous nine spots, the underdog went 0-9 straight up and ATS.

Eight of those nine instances were in Week 16 or 17 when the winning teams rested their starters. But I’ll trust the oddsmakers on this one and back a Detroit team that has won four of its last five games while going 5-0 ATS.

The Lions, averaging 31.7 points in their last four games, are 11-4 ATS at home under coach Dan Campbell and 19-10 ATS overall. Detroit has covered the last four meetings with Minnesota, including a 28-24 Week 3 loss in which it squandered a 24-14 lead in the fourth quarter.

Four more plays (home team in CAPS):

Browns (+5½) over BENGALS: Cincinnati has won and covered four straight and six of its last seven. But the lone loss in that stretch was a 32-13 beatdown at Cleveland on Halloween on “Monday Night Football.” The Browns, who have won and covered back-to-back games, have dominated the AFC North series in recent years, winning the last five meetings and eight of nine. We’ll bank on Cleveland to keep it close in Deshaun Watson’s second start.

TITANS (-3½) over Jaguars: Tennessee won seven of eight games while going 8-0 ATS before going 0-2 ATS in back-to-back losses to the Bengals and Eagles. The Titans should bounce back at home against a Jacksonville team that was lit up by the Lions last week in a 40-14 loss. Tennessee, which ranks 11th in scoring defense (20.0 ppga), has won the last five meetings with the Jaguars and nine of the last 10 while going 8-2 ATS.

49ERS (-3½) over Buccaneers: The Niners have won nine of their last 10 home games while going 8-2 ATS. Tampa Bay is working on a short week after Monday night’s comeback win over New Orleans and has to travel across the country. San Francisco’s dominant defense, which allows a league-low 15.8 ppg, should shut down the Bucs’ anemic offense, which ranks 27th in the league in scoring with 18.1 ppg, and have its way with Tampa’s injury-riddled offensive line.

Patriots (-1½) over CARDINALS: After winning and covering three straight, New England went 0-2 ATS in back-to-back Thursday losses to the Vikings and Bills. Bill Belichick is 62-34-1 ATS following a loss with the Patriots, including 7-3-1 ATS since the start of last season and 3-1-1 ATS this season. Arizona is 1-6 straight up at home this season.

Last week: 3-2

Season: 36-26-3

Contact reporter Todd Dewey at tdewey@reviewjournal.com. Follow @tdewey33 on Twitter.