NFL countdown: Atlanta Falcons face NFL’s toughest schedule

This is the ninth in a series of 32 NFL team betting previews in 32 days leading up to the league’s Sept. 10 season opener. We’ll count down the teams from the lowest season win total to the highest.

It’s been four years since the 2016 Atlanta Falcons, one of the highest-scoring teams in NFL history, blew a 28-3 lead in Super Bowl LI over the New England Patriots in a 34-28 overtime loss.

Bettors are still waiting for the Falcons to regain their pre-meltdown form from that season, when they averaged 33.8 points per game, good for eighth-best all time.

“Since the year they choked in the Super Bowl, every year it’s the same thing with Atlanta,” Westgate sportsbook vice president of risk Ed Salmons said. “They have a disappointing year, and everyone tells you over the next seven months how they’re going to surprise people. And then they go out and go 7-9. It’s like Groundhog Day every year.”

Atlanta went 10-6 in 2017 and is coming off back-to-back 7-9 seasons.

The Falcons started 1-7 last season, and there was speculation that coach Dan Quinn would be fired. But they saved his job by finishing 6-2 and winning their final four games.

“They finished strong and played awfully hard for their coach,” Sunset Station sportsbook director Chuck Esposito said. “But that team is a major question mark. I could see them winning the NFC South or finishing last in that division.”

Atlanta’s win total is 7½, and it’s the 10-1 third choice to win the NFC South in what shapes up as a two-team race between New Orleans (-125) and Tampa Bay (+140).

The Falcons were 13th in the league in scoring last season (23.8 ppg) and added running back Todd Gurley and tight end Hayden Hurst, who replaces Austin Hooper. The offense is led by 2016 NFL MVP Matt Ryan and receivers Julio Jones and Calvin Ridley.

“This team can score with anybody in the league,” Esposito said. “But they need better defensive play.”

Atlanta, which had the 11th-worst scoring defense in the league last season (24.9 ppg), added pass rusher Dante Fowler Jr., who had 11½ sacks last season for the Rams.

The Falcons must overcome a brutal schedule to top their win total and make a playoff run. Atlanta has the No. 1 most difficult slate based on opponents’ 2020 season win totals (138½) and fifth-toughest based on opponents’ 2019 win percentage (.525).

Besides four games against the Buccaneers and Saints, the Falcons will play the Cowboys and eight games against the rugged NFC North and AFC West.

“Atlanta has the hardest schedule in the NFL this year,” Salmons said. “I don’t like Atlanta at all. The team needs to fire the coach and redo things.”

Contact reporter Todd Dewey at tdewey@reviewjournal.com. Follow @tdewey33 on Twitter.