NFL betting breakdown: Week 9

Raiders (4-3) at Chargers (2-5)

Time: 1:05 p.m., KVVU-5

Line/total: Chargers -1, 52½

Analysis: The Chargers have the better talent and the better quarterback in Justin Herbert over Derek Carr. But they can’t hold on to leads. They’ve blown leads of at least 17 points three times this season. Las Vegas coach Jon Gruden is superior to Los Angeles coach Anthony Lynn. The Raiders could be in a letdown spot coming off a big win at Cleveland. This game is a toss-up, so I’ll pass.

By the numbers: The Raiders are 4-3 ATS and the Chargers 4-2-1 ATS. … Since 1993, the Raiders are 52-78 straight up and 43-85 ATS against teams with a losing record. … Los Angeles had won and covered four straight in the series before a Las Vegas sweep last season. … The Raiders have a 5-1-1 over-under record this season, and the Chargers are on a 4-0 over run.

Pick: Chargers 28, Raiders 27

Seahawks (6-1) at Bills (6-2)

Time: 10 a.m.

Line/total: Seahawks -3, 55

Analysis: Seahawks quarterback Russell Wilson and wide receiver D.K. Metcalf are probably the best QB-WR combination in the NFL. The problem is Seattle’s defense is one of the league’s worst. The Seahawks are last in the league in total defense, allowing 460.9 yards per game, and 24th in scoring defense, giving up 28.4 points per game.

By the numbers: Wilson leads the league in touchdown passes (26) and passer rating (120.7). He ranks third in completion percentage (71.5) and seventh in passing yards (2,151).

Pick: Bills 28, Seahawks 24

Broncos (3-4) at Falcons (2-6)

Time: 10 a.m.

Line/total: Falcons -4, 49½

Analysis: This is a pretty simple scenario for me: I can’t trust Atlanta as a favorite. The Falcons can’t even win games after having big leads, let alone cover a number as favorites. I’ll take my chances with anyone they play getting a field goal or more.

By the numbers: Denver is 5-2 ATS as an underdog, including 3-0 ATS on the road. … Atlanta is 0-4 ATS as a favorite and 3-5 ATS overall.

Pick: Broncos 27, Falcons 24

Bears (5-3) at Titans (5-2)

Time: 10 a.m.

Line/total: Titans -6½, 47

Analysis: I have a reliable system that puts me on the Bears. I think the number is too high and the Titans are unreliable favorites in this spot. Chicago’s offense finally exceeded 300 yards last week behind quarterback Nick Foles, perhaps a sign of better things to come for this woeful offense.

By the numbers: The Bears are 5-2 ATS as underdogs. The Titans are 1-5 ATS as favorites. … Tennessee has a dubious history of being 18-35 ATS when it’s favored by 3½ to seven points at home since 1993. … The Titans have gone over in six straight games, and the over is 16-4 with Ryan Tannehill at quarterback.

Pick: Titans 27, Bears 23

Lions (3-4) at Vikings (2-5)

Time: 10 a.m.

Line/total: Vikings -4½, 50½

Analysis: This is a tremendous spot for Detroit. I expect the Lions to bounce back from last week’s 20-point home loss to the Colts, and I expect a letdown from the Vikings after their improbable 28-22 upset at Green Bay.

By the numbers: Detroit is 3-1 ATS on the road. The Vikings are 0-2 ATS as favorites. … Minnesota is 1-4 ATS the past three seasons after a victory over a division rival. … The over is 13-5 in the Vikings’ last 18 regular-season games.

Pick: Vikings 27, Lions 24

Ravens (5-2) at Colts (5-2)

Time: 10 a.m., KLAS-8

Line/total: Ravens -1, 48

Analysis: This should be a close game, but I’ll give the slight edge to the Colts at home against the short-handed Ravens. Baltimore activated six players from the reserve/COVID-19 list Saturday, including linebacker L.J. Fort. But Fort, who started the past six games, has been ruled out with a finger injury. The Ravens also will be without All-Pro cornerback Marlon Humphrey, who tested positive Monday and already had been ruled out.

By the numbers: Baltimore is 0-4 ATS in its last four games after playing the Steelers, and it’s on an 0-3-1 spread skid overall. … Indianapolis is riding an 11-3 cover streak as nondivision home underdogs. … The Colts are 3-1 ATS when the line is -3 to +3. … The Ravens are 3-3 ATS as favorites.

Pick: Colts 21, Ravens 19

Panthers (3-5) at Chiefs (7-1)

Time: 10 a.m.

Line/total: Chiefs -10½, 52½

Analysis: It’s fairly common knowledge that Carolina QB Teddy Bridgewater performs at a high level ATS. He’s 21-4 ATS as an underdog. But a little known gem is what Kansas City coach Andy Reid’s teams do the game before their bye week. Reid’s teams are 9-14 straight up and 8-14-1 ATS in games before their bye weeks. Those results put me on the Panthers, but it’s a weak endorsement because I respect the Chiefs’ superior talent.

By the numbers: Carolina has covered its last four games as an underdog, including the past three on the road. … Kansas City has covered 15 of its last 17 games.

Pick: Chiefs 31, Panthers 27

Texans (1-6) at Jaguars (1-6)

Time: 10 a.m.

Line/total: Texans -7, 50½

Analysis: If Jaguars QB Gardner Minshew was playing, this might have been a somewhat meaningful game to handicap. Both teams are a mess, and neither defense can stop anyone. Houston is 30th in the league in scoring defense, allowing 31.0 ppg. Jacksonville is 31st in scoring defense, allowing 31.4 ppg. The over is the preferred option.

By the numbers: Houston rushes for 84.9 ypg and the Jaguars for 96.6. … The Texans average 282.7 yards passing, so they can be effective through the air. Houston allows 250.9 yards passing and Jacksonville 281.9. … The Texans have won the last five meetings, going 4-1 ATS. But they’re on a 1-7 spread slide overall, and the Jaguars are on an 0-5 ATS skid.

Pick: Texans 34, Jaguars 30

Giants (1-7) at Washington (2-5)

Time: 10 a.m.

Line/total: Washington -2½, 43

Analysis: The only reason I’m siding with the Giants is because I have a reliable system that makes them a play. They already have beaten Washington in a close game, winning 20-19 on Oct. 18. This should be another close game.

By the numbers: New York is on a 5-2 ATS run as an underdog, including its last four games in the role. … Washington is on a 1-4 ATS skid as a favorite, including 0-2 ATS as a home favorite of three points or fewer.

Pick: Football Team 24, Giants 22

Steelers (7-0) at Cowboys (2-6)

Time: 1:25 p.m., KLAS-8

Line/total: Steelers -14, 44

Analysis: I’m passing on this game. The Cowboys are expected to start Garrett Gilbert at quarterback after he took the majority of reps in practice this past week ahead of Cooper Rush, Dak Prescott’s backup since 2017. Either will be an upgrade over Ben DiNucci, who was overmatched and unqualified in last week’s loss at Philadelphia. I’m also not laying double digits. That’s something I never do in the NFL.

By the numbers: Pittsburgh leads the NFL with a 6-1 ATS record, including 4-1 ATS as a favorite. … The Steelers are 2-0 ATS against NFC East opponents in the Eagles and the Giants. … Dallas is the NFL’s only winless team ATS, going 0-8.

Pick: Steelers 35, Cowboys 14

Dolphins (4-3) at Cardinals (5-2)

Time: 1:25 p.m.

Line/total: Cardinals -4½, 49½

Analysis: Miami routed the Rams last week because of its defense, turnovers and special teams. Rookie QB Tua Tagovailoa had a nice debut, but the Dolphins had only 145 total yards and were outgunned by 326 yards. Cardinals QB Kyler Murray improves with every game and has a 104.5 rating in his past four games. The number seems low, and it’s an overreaction to Miami’s last game.

By the numbers: Murray is 10-5 ATS in his career in nondivision games, including 4-1 ATS vs. AFC opponents. … Arizona and Miami are both 5-2 ATS this season. … The Cardinals are 15-7-1 ATS under coach Kliff Kingsbury. … Arizona is on an 8-3-1 under run, and the under is 5-2 in Dolphins games this season.

Pick: Cardinals 27, Dolphins 21

Saints (5-2) at Buccaneers (6-2)

Time: 5:20 p.m., KSNV-3

Line/total: Buccaneers -4, 50½

Analysis: The Saints have already beaten Tampa Bay, winning by 11 points in Week 1. I don’t agree with Bucs QB Tom Brady’s confidence in receiver Antonio Brown, who will hurt the team in the long run. It’s hard to pass up getting more than a field goal in a division game between the two best teams in the NFC South.

By the numbers: Saints coach Sean Payton is 34-12-2 ATS as an underdog vs .500 or better teams, including 19-2-1 ATS as an underdog of more than three points. … New Orleans has gone over in all seven games this season, and five of the last six meetings have gone over. … The over is 17-7 in Tampa Bay games coached by Bruce Arians, whose teams are on a 32-15 over streak overall.

Pick: Saints 31, Buccaneers 27

Patriots (2-5) at Jets (0-8)

Time: 5:15 p.m., ESPN

Line/total: Patriots -8½, 41½

Analysis: Another disaster matchup on “Monday Night Football.” I would normally take a division home underdog, but I can’t back the awful Jets under any circumstances. The Patriots aren’t good, either, and QB Cam Newton seems clueless. I’ll pass on this game.

By the numbers: The Jets are 1-7 ATS overall this season and 1-6 ATS in their last seven division home games. … New York also has lost and failed to cover four of its last five Monday night games. … New England is on a four-game losing streak and a 1-3 ATS skid. … The Jets are on a 10-4 under surge, and seven of the last eight meetings have gone under.

Pick: Patriots 28, Jets 10