NFL betting breakdown: Week 5

BETTING BREAKDOWN

Dana Lane, @DanaLaneSports, PickDawgz.com

Raiders (1-3) at Chiefs (3-1)

Time: 5:15 p.m. Monday, ESPN

Line/total: Chiefs -7, 51½

Analysis: The Raiders can turn their season around with a win in Kansas City in prime time. They will likely try to establish Josh Jacobs as much as possible to keep the ball out of the hands of Patrick Mahomes. Jacobs is coming off a 144-yard rushing effort against Denver, while prized free agent Davante Adams had one of his best games as a Raider with 101 yards receiving. The Raiders have the firepower to stay with the Chiefs for most of the night, but their inability to produce in the red zone will bite them again.

By the numbers: The Raiders have failed to produce a profit for bettors since moving to Las Vegas, going 25-28 against the spread. Since 2012, they’re 74-88 ATS. … The Raiders are on a 34-29-1 ATS run as underdogs of five points or more.

Pick: Chiefs 26, Raiders 23

Giants (3-1) vs. Packers (3-1), London

Time: 6:30 a.m., NFLN

Line/total: Packers -8, 41

Analysis: This all comes down to Giants QB Daniel Jones and the health of his sprained left ankle. Jones is progressing fine and is expected to start Sunday. That’s good news, considering backup Tyrod Taylor suffered a concussion in Sunday’s win over Chicago. Taylor will travel to London and is listed as questionable. The public has moved this number from -6½ to -8, betting against two QBs who are less than 100 percent.

By the numbers: The Giants are riding a 7-3 cover streak in October. … The Packers are on a 10-11 ATS slide when favored by seven or more points.

Pick: Packers 26, Giants 20

Chargers (2-2) at Browns (2-2)

Time: 10 a.m.

Line/total: Chargers -2½, 47½

Analysis: The Chargers will bring the league’s top-rated passing offense (307.3 ypg) into Cleveland, which must figure out how to avoid another fourth-quarter collapse. After blowing a 13-point lead with 2:02 left in a Week 2 loss to the Jets and a fourth-quarter edge last week against Atlanta, the Browns are not too far away from a 4-0 record. The Chargers are last in second-half point differential (-44).

By the numbers: The Browns have managed at least 350 total yards in every game this season, something that hasn’t happened since 1958. … Cleveland went 3-1 ATS last season against the AFC West.

Pick: Browns 23, Chargers 20

Lions (1-3) at Patriots (1-3)

Time: 10 a.m.

Line/total: Patriots -3½, 45½

Analysis: It’s been a long time since we’ve said there isn’t anything wrong with the Lions’ offense. Detroit is leading the league in scoring (35 ppg) and total offense (437 ypg). But the Lions are last in the league in scoring defense (35.3 ppg). Last week, a furious comeback against Seattle made the score respectable, but the truth is the Seahawks were cruising until they forgot how to stop the run in the second half.

By the numbers: Detroit is the first team in NFL history to score 140 points or more and allow 140 points or more in the first four games of the season. … Since 2003, no team in the NFL has been a more reliable bet than the Patriots, going 179-120-10 ATS (59.8 percent). … The Lions have gone over in all four games.

Pick: Patriots 23, Lions 17

Falcons (2-2) at Buccaneers (2-2)

Time: 10 a.m., KVVU-5

Line/total: Buccaneers -9½, 46½

Analysis: The Falcons are a .500 team following wins over Seattle and Cleveland and are worth a look as an almost double-digit underdog. I don’t think any of us are sure where the Buccaneers are right now with their leader, Tom Brady, hiring divorce lawyers during a two-game losing streak. It’s been 20 years since a Brady team has had a three-game losing streak, so don’t expect a loss Sunday. But laying 9½ points is a lot to ask.

By the numbers: Brady is 10-0 against the Falcons in his career. With a win, he’ll match John Elway (vs. New England) and Andrew Luck (vs. Tennessee) with a record 11 straight wins against one opponent. … Every Falcons game this season has been decided by four points or fewer. … Atlanta is 4-0 ATS this season. … The Falcons have turned a profit in three of the last four seasons as underdogs.

Pick: Buccaneers 30, Falcons 24

Seahawks (2-2) at Saints (1-3)

Time: 10 a.m.

Line/total: Saints -5½, 45½

Analysis: There is so much talk about how sloppy the Saints have been over the last three weeks. But the Seahawks committed 11 penalties in last week’s 48-45 win over the Lions. With this number moving in Seattle’s direction, bettors have long forgotten how Detroit almost erased a 15-point fourth-quarter deficit. It’s a good rule of thumb to not put your cash behind poor defenses, and the Seahawks rank 31st in total defense.

By the numbers: Only Tom Brady (314) has averaged more passing yards per game against Seattle than Andy Dalton (305.7). … The Saints have produced seven straight winning seasons ATS.

Pick: Saints 26, Seahawks 17

Texans (0-3-1) at Jaguars (2-2)

Time: 10 a.m.

Line/total: Jaguars -7, 43½

Analysis: After watching Trevor Lawrence turn the ball over five times in last week’s loss to the Eagles, I’m not rushing to bet on the Jaguars. The Texans have won eight straight games against Jacksonville.

By the numbers: Since 2008, Jacksonville is 36-67 ATS at home. … The Jaguars are on a 5-11 spread slide as home favorites of -7 or more.

Pick: Jaguars 21, Texans 17

Steelers (1-3) at Bills (3-1)

Time: 10 a.m., KLAS-8

Line/total: Bills -14, 45½

Analysis: The number is right where it should be, so let’s focus on the total. With QB Kenny Pickett getting his first career start for the Steelers, it’s not a surprise to see the public pushing this total down some. Truth is, I think Pickett and Josh Allen are going to be in a shootout for most of the game until Buffalo pulls away in the second half. Forget about Pickett’s three picks last week. He will be much better.

By the numbers: Allen has thrown for at least one TD in 18 straight home games, tied with Jim Kelly for the longest streak in Bills history. … Buffalo is riding a 29-21 over run at home.

Pick: Bills 38, Steelers 24

Dolphins (3-1) at Jets (2-2)

Time: 10 a.m.

Line/total: Dolphins -3, 46

Analysis: The Jets have lost 12 straight AFC East games. But that’s going to change Sunday. With Tua Tagovailoa out with a concussion, QB Teddy Bridgewater will start for Miami. Zach Wilson will get his second start of the season for the Jets after leading a comeback win over the Steelers last week. Wilson got better as the game went on after starting out 8-for-24 for 124 yards. In the fourth quarter, Wilson went 10-for-12 for 128 yards and two TDs. Expect that to carry over.

By the numbers: The Dolphins are 29th in rushing (69.3 ypg). … Miami is on an 0-5 ATS skid in October.

Pick: Jets 23, Dolphins 21

Titans (2-2) at Commanders (1-3)

Time: 10 a.m.

Line/total: Titans -1½, 43

Analysis: This number seems off to me, especially when it opened at pick. The Titans have won two straight games to get back to .500 and face a Commanders team that has lost three straight. I expected Tennessee to open as a 3-point to a 5-point favorite. So when I saw pick, it started to look like a trap.

By the numbers: As favorites, the Titans are on spread slides of 8-13 and 38-53. … Washington coach Ron Rivera is 91-83-3 ATS in his career.

Pick: Commanders 21, Titans 20

Bears (2-2) at Vikings (3-1)

Time: 10 a.m.

Line/total: Vikings -7½, 44

Analysis: For a team that talks about how the offense will only improve when QB Kirk Cousins and coach Kevin O’Connell have some games under their belt, Minnesota’s 3-1 start isn’t bad. But until the Vikings can show the ability to finish off drives consistently, I hesitate to lay more than a TD. Cousins and Bears QB Justin Fields rank Nos. 30 and 31 in completion percentage. Experienced bettors know that when you have two struggling QBs — you guessed it — bet the over.

By the numbers: Minnesota had to manufacture fourth-quarter comebacks in each of the last two weeks to pull out wins. … The Vikings are on a 1-4 ATS skid as favorites of 7 or more.

Pick: Vikings 26, Bears 20

49ers (2-2) at Panthers (1-3)

Time: 1:05 p.m.

Line/total: 49ers -6½, 39½

Analysis: This looks too easy. The NFL’s worst offense is facing the league’s best defense. The Niners lead the league in opposing three-and-outs (40.9 percent). I expect Carolina offensive coordinator Ben McAdoo to move Baker Mayfield out of the pocket to create more time to go through his progression. This also will help solve the problem of Mayfield’s passes getting tipped at the line of scrimmage. Last week, the 6-foot-1-inch QB had five passes tipped by the Cardinals.

By the numbers: The 49ers and Panthers are the top two teams in red-zone defense, with San Francisco allowing 1.18 yards per play inside its 20 and Carolina 1.63. … Since 2014, the Niners are 58-72 ATS. Carolina is only slightly better at 62-69-2 ATS, but it’s 35-29-1 ATS at home.

Pick: 49ers 23, Panthers 20

Cowboys (3-1) at Rams (2-2)

Time: 1:25 p.m., KVVU-5

Line/total: Rams -5½, 42½

Analysis: The Rams’ offensive line better figure things out quick against one of the most talented defenses in the league, as Los Angeles QB Matthew Stafford has been sacked 16 times this season. The Rams have a reasonable chance of creating their own havoc against Cowboys QB Cooper Rush, who has ridden Dallas’ stout defense to three straight wins after Dak Prescott was sidelined with a broken thumb.

By the numbers: Since 2003, the Rams are 41-35 ATS in October. It’s Los Angeles’ only profitable month in that span. … Rams coach Sean McVay is 3-1 ATS vs. Dallas.

Pick: Rams 26, Cowboys 16

Eagles (4-0) at Cardinals (2-2)

Time: 1:25 p.m.

Line/total: Eagles -5½, 49

Analysis: The Jaguars jumped out to a 14-0 lead over the Eagles last week, but Philadelphia outscored Jacksonville 29-7 the rest of the way to not only win but cover, too. The Eagles lead the league in turnover margin at +8. But they’ve had problems winning in the desert, losing 10 of the last 13 meetings. Philadelphia last won in Arizona in 2001.

By the numbers: The Cardinals are on a 27-15 cover streak as underdogs. … Arizona has covered six of the last seven meetings. … The Eagles are 31-37 ATS since 2018, 14-20 ATS on the road.

Pick: Cardinals 24, Eagles 23

Bengals (2-2) at Ravens (2-2)

Time: 5:20 p.m., KSNV-3

Line/total: Ravens -3½, 48

Analysis: Confidence won’t be an issue for QB Joe Burrow when he leads the Bengals back into Baltimore and attempts to beat the Ravens for the third straight time. The last time these AFC North foes got together, it was a revenge spot for the Ravens after they were humiliated 41-17 earlier last season. Burrow threw for 525 yards in the rematch, and Cincinnati rolled to a 41-21 win, sweeping the Ravens for the first time since 2015.

By the numbers: The Bengals are on an 11-7 cover run on the road. … Baltimore is on a 5-9 spread slide as a favorite.

Pick: Bengals 23, Ravens 20