NFL betting breakdown: Week 2
BETTING BREAKDOWN
Doug Fitz, Systemplays.com, @fitz_doug
Cardinals (0-1) at Raiders (0-1)
Time: 1:25 p.m., KLAS-8
Line/total: -5½, 51½
Analysis: The Cardinals suffered a 44-21 loss last week to the Chiefs. The Raiders offense looked sluggish and somewhat confused, as quarterback Derek Carr had a horrible outing, throwing three interceptions in a 24-19 loss to the Chargers. This number is a bit too generous to the Raiders, who opened as 3½-point favorites.
By the numbers: The Raiders have failed to cover six of their past nine games as home favorites. … Arizona is 13-3-1 ATS as away underdogs. … The Cardinals are 1-5 ATS in their past six games overall.
Pick: Cardinals 28, Raiders 24
Dolphins (1-0) at Ravens (1-0)
Time: 10 a.m.
Line/total: Ravens -3½, 44½
Analysis: Both teams had decisive wins last week, with Miami topping the Patriots 20-7 and Baltimore beating the Jets 24-9. But this matchup is considerably more difficult for both teams, as each side has a mobile quarterback who can keep drives going.
By the numbers: The Ravens were surprisingly outgained by 104 yards last week against the lowly Jets. … Miami’s defense allowed only 271 yards to the Patriots. … Baltimore has covered five of its past six home openers.
Pick: Ravens 24, Dolphins 23
Jets (0-1) at Browns (1-0)
Time: 10 a.m.
Line/total: Browns -6½, 39½
Analysis: I have a system that applies to the Jets at this inflated number against a Cleveland team that struggles in the favorite role. The system went 30-19 ATS last season, cashing at a 61.2 percent clip.
By the numbers: The Browns have failed to cover in seven of their past nine games as home favorites. … In their last meeting in 2020, the Jets recorded an outright 23-16 upset as 6½-point underdogs, right at the number in this game.
Pick: Browns 21, Jets 17
Commanders (1-0) at Lions (0-1)
Time: 10 a.m.
Line/total: Lions -1½, 47½
Analysis: I have a system that applies to the Commanders in this game that is 394-306 ATS (56.2 percent) since 2005. One thing you can count on in Detroit home games is that they’re almost always high scoring.
By the numbers: The Lions have won five of their previous six meetings with Washington. … Detroit is favored for the first time since midway through the 2020 season against Carolina, a span of 24 games. … The Lions are riding a 12-6 cover streak since the start of last season.
Pick: Commanders 31, Lions 28
Colts (0-0-1) at Jaguars (0-1)
Time: 10 a.m.
Line/total: Colts -3, 45
Analysis: You could look at this as a revenge play for the Colts after the Jaguars beat them in Week 18 last season to deny Indianapolis a playoff spot. The Colts are overrated, and I don’t trust them laying points on the road. Indianapolis erased a 20-3 deficit at Houston in Week 1 before settling for a 20-20 tie.
By the numbers: The Jaguars have failed to cover eight of their past 10 home openers. … The Colts are 8-4 ATS in their past 12 games as away favorites. … Jacksonville has won and covered the past seven meetings with Indianapolis at home.
Pick: Colts 24, Jaguars 21
Buccaneers (1-0) at Saints (1-0)
Time: 10 a.m., KVVU-5
Line/total: Buccaneers -2½, 44
Analysis: The Saints have had Tampa Bay’s number, winning seven of the past eight meetings and 17 of 22, including all four regular-season games with Tom Brady starting at quarterback for the Bucs. I don’t see any reason to buck that trend.
By the numbers: Tampa Bay has failed to cover five of its past nine games as a road favorite. … The Saints are 11-5 ATS in their past 16 games against NFC South opponents. … New Orleans is on a 6-2 under run.
Pick: Buccaneers 27, Saints 26
Panthers (0-1) at Giants (1-0)
Time: 10 a.m.
Line/total: Giants -2, 43½
Analysis: The same 30-19 ATS system I outlined in the Jets-Browns game also comes in on Carolina. The Panthers lost 25-3 last season at MetLife Stadium, so there is also a revenge situation if you subscribe to that.
By the numbers: The Giants are on an 0-10 ATS slide in home openers. … The Panthers have lost and failed to cover 13 of their past 15 games overall.
Pick: Panthers 21, Giants 16
Patriots (0-1) at Steelers (1-0)
Time: 10 a.m., KLAS-8
Line/total: Patriots -2½, 40½
Analysis: The Patriots looked dazed and confused on offense in last week’s 20-7 loss at Miami. The only reason they’re favored is because reigning NFL Defensive Player of the Year T.J. Watt is out for Pittsburgh. This is an overreaction.
By the numbers: The Steelers are on a 14-4-1 ATS run as home underdogs. … New England is on a 10-4 over streak.
Pick: Steelers 27, Patriots 20
Falcons (0-1) at Rams (0-1)
Time: 1:05 p.m.
Line/total: Rams -10, 46
Analysis: The conventional wisdom is that the defending Super Bowl champion Rams will bounce back at home in a big way after their 31-10 loss to Buffalo in the NFL season opener. The problem with that scenario for me is they need to cover double digits, and laying double digits in the NFL is a recipe for disaster.
By the numbers: Atlanta is 8-3 ATS in their past 11 nondivision road games. … The Rams are 1-4 ATS in their past five games as double-digit favorites.
Pick: Rams 31, Falcons 23
Seahawks (1-0) at 49ers (0-1)
Time: 1:05 p.m.
Line/total: 49ers -9½, 41½
Analysis: The 49ers will bounce back with a win after losing their opener 19-10 at Chicago. But the spread is too high. San Francisco QB Trey Lance needs more time to mature as a starter, whereas Seattle QB Geno Smith is experienced, albeit mostly as a backup.
By the numbers: The 49ers are on an 0-5 spread slide in home openers. … The Seahawks are 8-2 ATS as division road underdogs. … San Francisco is 2-14 ATS in its past 16 games as a division home favorite.
Pick: 49ers 28, Seahawks 24
Bengals (0-1) at Cowboys (0-1)
Time: 1:25 p.m.
Line/total: Bengals -7, 41½
Analysis: The obvious question is how is Dallas going to perform with QB Cooper Rush taking over for injured Dak Prescott? I don’t know, so I’m not recommending either side. This number is too high and an overreaction to Prescott’s absence. Dallas opened as a 1-point favorite.
By the numbers: The Cowboys are riding a 16-6 cover streak dating to the 2020 season. … Dallas is 3-1 ATS in its past four games against Cincinnati with an average victory margin of 12 points. … The Bengals are on a 9-0 ATS run on the road and 6-0 under streak.
Pick: Bengals 31, Cowboys 28
Texans (0-0-1) at Broncos (0-1)
Time: 1:25 p.m.
Line/total: Broncos -10, 45
Analysis: This spread is too high because of the expected bounce-back by Denver after its Monday night defeat at Seattle and the perception of the Broncos being the superior team.
By the numbers: Denver has failed to cover 15 of its past 21 games as a home favorite, but that dismal stretch was before the Broncos acquired quarterback Russell Wilson. … The Texans are on a 2-5 spread slide on the road. … Denver is riding a 13-5 under run.
Pick: Broncos 24, Texans 17
Bears (1-0) at Packers (0-1)
Time: 5:20 p.m., KSNV-3
Line/total: Packers -10, 41½
Analysis: Two-time reigning NFL MVP Aaron Rodgers tends to rebound after a loss. The Bears usually regress after a big win. Therefore, a blowout is possible after Green Bay lost 23-7 at Minnesota in Week 1 and Chicago upset San Francisco 19-10. But the high spread is the great equalizer, especially in a division game. I’ll pass.
By the numbers: The Packers have won 11 of the past 12 games against the Bears while going 9-3 ATS. … Chicago is on a 3-11 spread slide in NFC North matchups. … Green Bay is 7-1 ATS in its past eight games as a home favorite. … The Packers have covered 14 consecutive games after a straight-up loss.
Pick: Packers 41, Bears 31
Titans (0-1) at Bills (1-0)
Time: 4:15 p.m. Monday, ESPN
Line/total: Bills -10, 47½
Analysis: This is a tough call. I like Buffalo, which looked every bit the clear Super Bowl favorite in its blowout win over the reigning Super Bowl champion Rams in the NFL opener. But the number is too inflated for me. I’ll pass.
By the numbers: The Bills have lost their past two meetings with the Titans. … Buffalo is 8-3 ATS in its past 11 games as a nondivision home favorite. … Tennessee has covered five of its past seven games as a road underdog.
Pick: Bills 35, Titans 28
Vikings (1-0) at Eagles (1-0)
Time: 5:30 p.m. Monday, KTNV-13
Line/total: Eagles -2, 49½
Analysis: I see this matchup of two much improved 1-0 teams as too close to call. Minnesota, under new offensive-minded coach Kevin O’Connell, beat Green Bay 23-7 in the opener. Philadelphia led Detroit 38-21 before settling for a 38-35 win. This nightcap of a “Monday Night Football” doubleheader features two of the NFL’s best wide receivers in Justin Jefferson of the Vikings and A.J. Brown of the Eagles. I have no opinion on either side.
By the numbers: The Eagles have covered four consecutive games as home favorites. … The Vikings won the past two matchups. … Minnesota is riding a 22-11 over streak. … Philadelphia is on a 6-1 over run.
Pick: Eagles 24, Vikings 23
