NFL betting breakdown: Week 18

NFL BETTING BREAKDOWN

Lee Sterling, Paramountsports.com, @paramountsports

Packers (13-3) at Lions (2-13-1)

Time: 10 a.m., KVVU-5

Line/total: Packers -3, 44½

Analysis: With the Packers clinching home-field advantage throughout the playoffs, I can’t see them playing many starters. Detroit quarterback Tim Boyle has looked comfortable the past two games filling in for Jared Goff, who is questionable. Lions coach Dan Campbell said he expects Goff to play. I give both Detroit quarterbacks the edge over Green Bay backup QB Jordan Love.

By the numbers: The Lions are on a 10-4 under streak. … Detroit is on a 6-2 cover run and is 10-6 ATS this season.

Pick: Lions 23, Packers 17

Bears (6-10) at Vikings (7-9)

Time: 10 a.m.

Line/total: Vikings -5½, 44½

Analysis: There are a lot of meaningless games on Sunday’s card. But this might be the only one in which I will be shocked if either coach is still employed after Black Monday. When these teams met in Chicago five weeks ago, the Bears were missing 14 players and a few coaches. I rarely back road underdogs with nothing to play for in the final week of the season, but Chicago is playing with passion.

By the numbers: The Bears have scored 22 points or more points in four of their past five games. … Vikings QB Kirk Cousins’ 30 touchdown passes to seven interceptions is usually indicative of a team with a winning record.

Pick: Bears 27, Vikings 23

Colts (9-7) at Jaguars (2-14)

Time: 10 a.m.

Line/total: Colts -14½, 43½

Analysis: A win and the Colts are in the playoffs. For the Jaguars to compete, they will need to score some points to keep up with Indianapolis and NFL leading rusher Jonathan Taylor. Jacksonville has topped 17 points once since Week 6. Carson Wentz was rusty in the Colts’ home loss to the Raiders after missing the entire week on the COVID-19 list. Trevor Lawrence threw three more interceptions in last week’s 50-10 loss at New England and probably will be playing from behind all day.

By the numbers: The Jaguars’ defense has been left out to dry all season, as the offense has owned the time of possession edge in only two of 16 games. … Since Week 7, Lawrence has thrown for three touchdowns and nine interceptions with 5.5 yards per attempt.

Pick: Colts 34, Jaguars 13

Titans (11-5) at Texans (4-12)

Time: 10 a.m.

Line/total: Titans -10, 42½

Analysis: Tennessee beating Miami 34-3 last week and just needing a win to clinch the No. 1 seed isn’t enough to get me to buy in on the Titans. Before that blowout, they hadn’t cracked the 20-point barrier in their previous five games. Houston QB Davis Mills has improved over the last month, and with nothing to lose at home, the pressure is all on the Titans.

By the numbers: The Texans are riding a 6-1 ATS streak at home against Tennessee. … This is the first time since 2003 that the Titans have won 11 games or more in back-to-back seasons.

Pick: Titans 27, Texans 20

Washington (6-10) at Giants (4-12)

Time: 10 a.m.

Line/total: Washington -7, 37

Analysis: Washington QB Taylor Heinicke lit up New York in the first game, so there’s no reason he can’t do it when the Giants are in much worse shape and have topped 20 points once in their past seven games. Joe Judge might live to coach another season in New York, but the roster will be overhauled.

By the numbers: The first meeting went way over the total of 41, as Washington won 30-29 in Week 2. … But the Football Team is on an 8-3 under streak, and the Giants are on an 8-2 under run.

Pick: Washington 31, Giants 12

Steelers (8-7-1) at Ravens (8-8)

Time: 10 a.m., KLAS-8

Line/total: Ravens -3½, 40½

Analysis: Both teams know that they have little chance of getting to the postseason. The Steelers have lost four in a row on the road, allowing 38½ points per game in those games. The Steelers gave an “A” effort last week in QB Ben Roethlisberger’s send-off. I doubt we’ll see that same intensity. Both teams have a lot of starters out, but I expect Baltimore to avenge its earlier loss to Pittsburgh.

By the numbers: Baltimore is 3-1 ATS in the four games Lamar Jackson has been out. … The Ravens’ five-game losing streak is the longest of the John Harbaugh era.

Pick: Ravens 24, Steelers 20

Bengals (10-6) at Browns (7-9)

Time: 10 a.m.

Line/total: Browns -6½, 37

Analysis: No Joe Burrow at quarterback for the Bengals, no problem. Brandon Allen is one of the better backup quarterbacks in the NFL. Cleveland looks like a team that has quit, and its coaching staff seems to be getting little out of a talented roster. Browns QB Baker Mayfield has been ruled out. Laying points at home with a team that could be taken apart in the offseason by management is a recipe for disaster.

By the numbers: The Browns have scored 24 points or fewer in seven straight games. … Bengals wideout Ja’Marr Chase set an NFL single-game rookie record for receiving yards last week with 266.

Pick: Bengals 24, Browns 23

Patriots (10-6) at Dolphins (8-8)

Time: 1:25 p.m.

Line/total: Patriots -6, 40

Analysis: If you want to bet New England, you’re late to the party. The Patriots opened as 2½-point favorites. There is no value betting them at this inflated line. New England scored 16 points at home in their first meeting with the Dolphins. If the Bills go up big early against the Jets, you also run the risk of the Patriots pulling their starters early.

By the numbers: New England has intercepted 23 passes this season. … Miami’s offense ranks 31st in rushing and 25th in total yards.

Pick: Patriots 20, Dolphins 16

Jets (4-12) at Bills (10-6)

Time: 1:25 p.m.

Line/total: Bills -16½, 40½

Analysis: The Bills have an edge in every major offensive or defensive category, and the only thing that might slow their offense is a 60 percent chance of snow. The biggest weapon lately for the Jets has been wide receiver/kick returner Braxton Berrios, but he probably wouldn’t even see the field on offense if he played for the Bills. Buffalo crushed the Jets 45-17 in Week 10.

By the numbers: New York QB Zach Wilson has been sacked 25 times in six road starts. … Buffalo hasn’t punted in its past two games.

Pick: Bills 37, Jets 14

Panthers (5-11) at Buccaneers (12-4)

Time: 1:25 p.m., KLAS-8

Line/total: Buccaneers -8, 41½

Analysis: In their first meeting two weeks ago, the Bucs cruised to a 32-6 win with seven sacks. The Panthers have topped 21 points once in their past 10 games.

By the numbers: The Panthers have the NFL’s second-worst spread record at 5-11. … Over the past four games, three Carolina quarterbacks have thrown for only 737 yards and two touchdowns with five interceptions, six fumbles and 19 sacks.

Pick: Buccaneers 28, Panthers 9

Saints (8-8) at Falcons (7-9)

Time: 1:25 p.m.

Line/total: Saints -3½, 39½

Analysis: The Saints are probably favored only because they haven’t been eliminated from the playoffs. Their defense is stellar, but the offense has surpassed 18 points once in the past six games. In the first meeting, Falcons QB Matt Ryan was 23-for-30 for 11.4 yards per attempt in a 27-25 win.

By the numbers: The Falcons are 7-2 straight up against teams with a .500 record or less. … The one constant positive for Atlanta has been rookie tight end Kyle Pitts. He’s the second tight end to have more than 1,000 receiving yards in his rookie season.

Pick: Falcons 31, Saints 30

Seahawks (6-10) at Cardinals (11-5)

Time: 1:25 p.m.

Line/total: Cardinals -5½, 48

Analysis: The Cardinals can clinch the division title if they win and the 49ers beat the Rams. I have a feeling that QB Russell Wilson is playing his final game for the Seahawks. Seattle has finally found a ground game, as running back Rashaad Penny has rushed for at least 135 yards in three of the past four games.

By the numbers: Arizona QB Kyler Murray has thrown for only six touchdowns in his past six games, with five interceptions and seven fumbles. … Seattle is averaging only 22.3 points.

Pick: Cardinals 27, Seahawks 26

49ers (9-7) at Rams (12-4)

Time: 1:25 p.m., KVVU-5

Line/total: Rams -4½, 44½

Analysis: Rams coach Sean McVay has lost five in a row to the 49ers and coach Kyle Shanahan. Jimmy Garoppolo could start at quarterback for the 49ers, but even if Trey Lance gets the nod, I’m OK with backing San Francisco. He threw for 249 yards and two touchdowns in last week’s 23-7 win over Houston.

By the numbers: The 49ers have won four straight home games for the first time since 2013. … Niners running back Elijah Mitchell is healthy again and has five 100-yard rushing games.

Pick: 49ers 27, Rams 24

Chargers (9-7) at Raiders (9-7)

Time: 5:20 p.m., KSNV-3

Line: Chargers -3, 49

Analysis: Two teams that haven’t been in an important game in a long time. The Chargers might have a top-10 roster, as far as talent is concerned. Los Angeles coach Brandon Staley’s fourth-down gambles early in the season were money, but they haven’t worked out so well in the past month. The Chargers have one glaring weakness: They can’t stop the run. They have allowed more than 175 rushing yards six times and are 29th in the NFL in rushing defense (136.7 ypga). The Raiders’ Josh Jacobs has rushed for 244 yards in the past three games and could be the difference.

By the numbers: Raiders receiver Hunter Renfrow has 99 catches and his first season with 1,000 receiving yards with 1,025. … Las Vegas is 11-21 ATS after a win.

Pick: Raiders 26, Chargers 23