NFL betting breakdown: Week 16

BETTING BREAKDOWN

Cris Zeniuk, @lasvegascris, @vegassynergy, Wt.buzz/lvc

Browns (10-4) at Jets (1-13)

Time: 10 a.m.

Line/total: Browns -9½, 47½

Analysis: I made the line 13. Cleveland has been improving exponentially each week and will play for the AFC North title if Pittsburgh loses to Indianapolis on Sunday. The Browns are playing their fourth road game in five weeks in a potential letdown spot with the Steelers on deck next week. But they still need to win a game or get some help to clinch a playoff spot. The Jets, who stunned the Rams as 17-point underdogs last week for their first win, should have three or four wins with the effort they’ve shown. New York is a good first-quarter wager each week. The Browns should grind the clock running the ball and can exploit the Jets through the air if they need to score in a hurry.

By the numbers: Cleveland is the only team with a winning record that has been outscored (374-368). … The Browns are on a 1-6 ATS slide as road favorites, though they won 23-3 at New York last season. … Teams 0-9 or worse are 2-9 ATS after their first win.

Pick: Browns 27, Jets 13

Bengals (3-10-1) at Texans (4-10)

Time: 10 a.m.

Line/total: Texans -7, 46

Analysis: I made the line Texans -3. Bengals quarterback Ryan Finley might have found some confidence after Monday’s upset win over the Steelers as two-touchdown underdogs. Houston rates one point higher than Cincinnati in my metrics and has no reason to be favored by a TD. Injuries and suspensions are in abundance for the Texans, who rank No. 31 in total defense, allowing 402.6 yards per game. Houston’s poor rushing defense (150.5 ypg) should allow mobile Finley to break off some runs and move the sticks. One of my favorite NFL betting slogans is “Don’t bet bad teams, unless you’re betting against a bad team laying points.”

By the numbers: Houston is 2-6 ATS as a home favorite. … The Bengals have gone under in four straight games, and the Texans have gone under in three straight.

Pick: Texans 23, Bengals 17

Colts (10-4) at Steelers (11-3)

Time: 10 a.m., KLAS-8

Line/total: Colts -1, 43½

Analysis: I made the line Colts -2. Should we buy low and sell high? The Steelers couldn’t possibly look worse than they did in Monday’s loss to the Bengals. Ben Roethlisberger’s noodle arm was an embarrassment of foul-ups. Wagering on the Colts has been a weekly event in the last 10 to 12 weeks, as they have always been underrated. This is a teeter totter-game, where we just don’t believe our lying eyes and flip perception. We look to take advantage of gifted value. Pittsburgh was -2½ on Sunday, and now it’s getting points. Metrics don’t support a side here. But years of experience tell me to expect the Steelers to give maximum effort and avoid the risk of losing the division title to the Browns next week.

By the numbers: Pittsburgh is 6-0 vs. the AFC South, and Indianapolis is 0-5 vs. the AFC North. … The Steelers are 9-2 ATS as home underdogs after a loss.

Pick: Colts 21, Steelers 20

Bears (7-7) at Jaguars (1-13)

Time: 10 a.m.

Line/total: Bears -7½, 47

Analysis: There’s some helium in this overinflated line, which I made 5½. Nobody thinks the Jaguars will play to win, and the Bears are miraculously revived from their coma in time for a shot at the playoffs. This is a must win for Chicago to keep its postseason hopes alive and a must lose for Jacksonville to keep the No. 1 draft pick for generational QB Trevor Lawrence. This is an easy choice. Nobody should lay 7½ here. It’s the Jaguars or sit it out.

By the numbers: The Bears are on an 0-5 spread skid as favorites. … Chicago is 4-9 ATS on the road. … The Jaguars are on a 6-2-1 ATS surge in their final home game of the season.

Pick: Bears 23, Jaguars 16

Panthers (4-10) at Football Team (6-8)

Time: 10 a.m.

Line/total: Football Team -1, 41½

Analysis: This is a matchup of teams rolling in different directions. Washington is rolling on a possible run to the playoffs with coach Ron Rivera, and his former team is rolling on square blocks after losing eight of its last nine. The Football Team controls its destiny and will rely on its No. 4 total defense to pick up the slack for its injury-riddled No. 29 total offense. Carolina coach Matt Rhule hasn’t had much to work with in his first season, but the future looks bright. Rivera is reportedly bitter about his dismissal as Panthers coach and would like to flaunt a playoff berth, which Washington could clinch with a win. QB Alex Smith looks as if he might play, and that helps the Football Team’s chances. Picking Washington looks too easy, and we know what that usually means — the Panthers win this somehow, though I have no idea how.

By the numbers: Washington is 9-5 ATS and Carolina 8-6 ATS. … Washington is 3-0 to the under. … Useless amusing stat: Washington is 7-1 ATS in game 15, and Carolina is 0-6 ATS in game 15.

Pick: Panthers 23, Football Team 20

Giants (5-9) at Ravens (9-5)

Time: 10 a.m.

Line/total: Ravens -9½, 44

Analysis: I made this line 12. The Giants have won their last three road games, but face a mighty task at Baltimore. The Ravens slumped in the middle of the season after the injury bug bit them, but they are coming on stronger than ever in their quest for a playoff spot. New York gave people false hope in recent weeks, only to turn in the worst prime-time performance of the season in Sunday night’s 20-6 loss to the Browns. A healthier Ravens team should be able to name the score.

By the numbers: The Ravens have eight wins by 20 points or more since last season. … Baltimore is 7-3 ATS vs. teams with losing records.

Pick: Ravens 31, Giants 13

Falcons (4-10) at Chiefs (13-1)

Time: 10 a.m., KVVU-5

Line/total: Chiefs -11, 53½

Analysis: Atlanta is 4-10 but has outscored its opponents 355-353. The Chiefs are on an 0-5-1 spread slide, winning each game by one score with no covers. Kansas City is not my top-rated team, based on the metrics of results. Its run defense is near the bottom of the NFL (123.5 ypga), making overall defensive metrics simply average. Falcons wideout Julio Jones is out again, and QB Matt Ryan seems intent to choke in as many games as possible. Atlanta has been playing hard but falling short. It blew a 17-point lead last week, and there’s no reason to think the Falcons will feel like getting up for another beatdown this week.

By the numbers: Atlanta is 0-7 in nonconference road games. … The Falcons are 1-5 vs teams with a win percentage of .700 or better.

Pick: Chiefs 38, Falcons 24

Broncos (5-9) at Chargers (5-9)

Time: 1:05 p.m.

Line/total: Chargers -3, 49

Analysis: I made the line Chargers -1½. Denver is down to its fourth-string cornerbacks and dealing with other injuries. The Chargers blew a 24-3 lead in a 31-30 loss to the Broncos in Week 8. Los Angeles coach Anthony Lynn is likely the first NFL coach who dings the betting line because of horrid coaching decisions weekly. Motivation is questionable on both sides, but Denver gets a little relief from the elite teams it has faced recently.

By the numbers:: The Chargers are 2-7-1 ATS vs. the AFC West. … Los Angeles is 2-8 as a home favorite. … Denver leads the NFL in giveaways with 30. … The Broncos have three consecutive upset wins in the series.

Pick: Chargers 24, Broncos 23

Rams (9-5) at Seahawks (10-4)

Time: 1:25 p.m., KVVU-5

Line/total: Seahawks -1, 47½

Analysis: The Rams don’t have the killer instinct. They allow teams to hang around, and they have flat performances. Los Angeles is balanced, though, and many think it will make a Super Bowl run. Seattle lost 23-16 to the Rams in Week 10, but the Seahawks were riddled with injuries then and are on the mend now. Seattle’s defense is no longer the sieve it was to start the season. The sharps love the Rams this week, though running back Cam Akers is out.

By the numbers: Teams that lost as favorites of 14 points or more are 7-3-1 ATS in the next game. … The Rams have won four of the last five meetings.

Pick: Seahawks 27, Rams 24

Eagles (4-9-1) at Cowboys (5-9)

Time: 1:25 p.m.

Line/total: Eagles -3, 49

Analysis: I made this line pick. Eagles fans are optimistic about rookie QB Jalen Hurts. Dallas will never lay down at home against its division rival. Both teams are a mess of poor coaching, injuries and unattainable expectations. A Washington win would mercifully bump these pretenders from playoff contention. Many are running to the window with fists full of money to play the Eagles, but I have to look the other way. It feels as if this game will be full of mishaps.

By the numbers: The Eagles are on an 0-5 slide on the road. … The home team has won the last four meetings. … Dallas is on a 6-0 run as a home underdog.

Pick: Cowboys 31, Eagles 28

Titans (10-4) at Packers (11-3)

Time: 5:20 p.m., KSNV-3

Line/total: Packers -3, 55½

Analysis: I made this line Packers -4. Tennessee tops Cleveland as the NFL’s most overrated team. The Titans are more average than people think. Their No. 26 total defense (390.5 ypg) won’t be good enough for playoff success. My metrics make them the league’s 14th best overall team, while most think they‘re in the top 10. Green Bay is much better on defense than the Titans and the more complete team. And all we ask is for them to win by a small margin at home, on national TV, for the No. 1 playoff seed.

By the numbers: Green Bay has won 14 of its last 16 home games. … Tennessee has scored 30 points or more in five straight games. … The teams are tied for the fewest giveaways in the league with nine each.

Pick: Packers 34, Titans 30

Bills (11-3) at Patriots (6-8)

Time: 5:15 p.m., ESPN

Line/total: Bills -7, 46

Analysis: The Bills have their act together, winning seven of their last eight games with six straight covers and ending the Patriots’ run of 11 consecutive AFC East titles. Buffalo QB Josh Allen has found his groove with great accuracy and TD passes to 12 receivers. He runs as well as any other quarterback in the league and has curtailed the mistakes. The Bills are getting fully healthy at the perfect time. They might want to twist the knife on “Monday Night Football,” and Bill Belichick might not be able to coach his way out of it.

By the numbers: New England is 16-0 straight up and 15-1 ATS in its last 16 home games against a division rival it lost to in the season’s first meeting. … The Patriots are on a 10-1 cover streak as home underdogs. … New England is on a 6-0 under run.

Pick: Bills 27, Patriots 17