NFL betting breakdown: Week 15
Mark Franco, FrancoSports.com, VegasInsider.com
Texans (4-9) at Colts (9-4)
Time: 10 a.m.
Line/total: Colts -7½, 50½
Analysis: The Colts will be headed to the playoffs, and the Texans will be in rebuild mode over the next couple of years. Indianapolis sacked quarterback Deshaun Watson five times in its 26-20 win Dec. 6 at Houston. The Texans have struggled to protect Watson, as he has been sacked 39 times, third-most in the NFL. Houston has an anemic rushing attack that is last in the league with 1,121 yards. Look for Indianapolis to have a solid game running the ball on Houston’s No. 31 rush defense (152.3 yards per game allowed).
By the numbers: The Texans are 1-6 ATS vs. teams with a winning record. … They’re 3-12-2 ATS in the last 17 meetings with the Colts. … The Colts are riding a 4-1 cover streak.
Pick: Colts 31, Texans 13
Lions (5-8) at Titans (9-4)
Time: 10 a.m.
Line/total: Titans -11½, 51½
Analysis: Derrick Henry has a chance to become the eighth player in NFL history to rush for 2,000 yards in a season. The way Detroit gives up yards on the ground, he should get much closer to that milestone Sunday. Henry has racked up 1,532 rushing yards with three games to go. He will be facing the league’s fourth-worst rushing defense (132.8 ypga) in the Lions.
By the numbers: The Lions are on a 1-12 spread slide after allowing more than 250 yards passing in their previous game. … Detroit is on a 4-0 over surge in its last four games after a loss.
Pick: Titans 31, Lions 17
49ers (5-8) at Cowboys (4-9)
Time: 10 a.m., KLAS-8
Line/total: 49ers -3, 45
Analysis: Originally scheduled for prime time, the 49ers-Cowboys game is now a clash of NFC division cellar dwellers. Dallas is coming off a 30-7 win at Cincinnati, but it’s 0-3 against the NFC West and has lost three straight home games by a combined margin of 103-45. San Francisco has lost five of its past six games, including last week’s 23-15 loss to Washington. Giveaways have plagued both teams, as only the Broncos (29) entered Week 15 with more turnovers than the 49ers (25) and Cowboys (24).
By the numbers: Dallas is 3-10 ATS this season. … The Cowboys are on a 1-8 spread skid vs. the NFC. … The 49ers are 16-7 ATS as road favorites.
Pick: 49ers 27, Cowboys 21
Buccaneers (8-5) at Falcons (4-9)
Time: 10 a.m.
Line/total: Buccaneers -6½, 48½
Analysis: Tampa Bay is sixth in the NFC, good for a playoff spot. The Bucs beat the Vikings 26-14 last week at home. Tom Brady was efficient, going 15 of 23 for 196 yards and two touchdowns, giving him 30 touchdown passes in a season for the eighth time. While Tampa Bay is poised to break a 13-year playoff drought, Atlanta is hoping to play the spoiler’s role in another lost season.
By the numbers: The Bucs are 6-2 ATS as road favorites. … The Falcons are 1-4 ATS vs. teams with a winning record. … Seven of the past eight meetings have gone over, including the last four.
Pick: Buccaneers 27, Falcons 17
Patriots (6-7) at Dolphins (8-5)
Time: 10 a.m.
Line/total: Dolphins -1½, 41½
Analysis: Miami is trying to reach the playoffs for the first time since 2016 and will most likely need to beat New England to do so. The Patriots are staring at what probably will be their first nonplayoff season since 2008. New England defeated the Dolphins 21-11 in the season opener. But the Patriots have failed to win more than two consecutive games this season and lack weapons. A multitude of Miami starters are questionable with injuries, including tight end Mike Gesicki, wide receiver DeVante Parker, guard Ereck Flowers, linebackers Elandon Roberts and Kyle Van Noy, and safety Bobby McCain. Dolphins rookie quarterback Tua Tagovailoa passed for a season-high 316 yards in last week’s loss to the Chiefs.
By the numbers: Miami is riding an 8-0 cover streak. … The Patriots are on an extended 38-18-3 ATS run as underdogs. But they’re 2-6 ATS in the last eight meetings in Miami. … New England is on an 8-2 under run after scoring fewer than 15 points in its previous game.
Pick: Dolphins 20, Patriots 13
Seahawks (9-4) at Washington (6-7)
Time: 10 a.m., KVVU-5
Line/total: Seahawks -6½, 43
Analysis: For the third time in four weeks, Seattle will face the first-place team from the lowly NFC East. The Seahawks split the first two games, edging the Eagles 23-17 on the road before losing at home to the Giants 17-12. Seattle will face Washington backup QB Dwayne Haskins, who will replace injured starter Alex Smith. Smith suffered a strained right calf in last week’s 23-15 victory at San Francisco. The Seahawks will have to contend with a strong Football Team defense that scored twice against the 49ers.
By the numbers: Washington has won and covered its past four games. … The Football Team is on a 6-2-1 under run. … Seattle is on a 2-4 ATS skid. … The Seahawks are on a 10-4 under streak as road favorites.
Pick: Football Team 21, Seahawks 20
Bears (6-7) at Vikings (6-7)
Time: 10 a.m.
Line/total: Vikings -3, 47
Analysis: Minnesota is coming off a 26-14 loss at Tampa Bay. Running back Dalvin Cook topped 100 yards for the third time in four games, but mistakes elsewhere added up. The Vikings are one game out of the final NFC wild-card spot. Mitch Trubisky has passed for at least 242 yards in each of his three starts since replacing Nick Foles. He threw for 267 yards and three TDs in last week’s 36-7 home rout of Houston as the Bears snapped a six-game losing streak. The Vikings defense dominated in a 19-13 victory in Week 10.
By the numbers: Chicago is 1-7 ATS after an ATS win. … The Bears are on a 3-9 spread skid on the road. … The Vikings are 38-13 ATS after a loss. … Minnesota is 7-1 ATS in Week 15. … The home team is 7-3 ATS in the last 10 meetings.
Pick: Vikings 23, Bears 17
Jaguars (1-12) at Ravens (8-5)
Time: 10 a.m.
Line/total: Ravens -12½, 48
Analysis: Baltimore will look to take another step toward making the playoffs for the third straight season against Jacksonville, mired in a franchise-record 12-game losing streak. The Ravens still trail the Browns (9-4), Colts (8-5) and Dolphins (8-5) in the race for the three wild cards. But Baltimore closes with three teams that have a combined record of 8-30-1 in the Jaguars, Giants and Bengals. The Ravens are coming off their biggest victory of the season in Monday night’s 47-42 win at Cleveland.
By the numbers: The Jaguars are 2-6 ATS vs. AFC teams. … The Ravens are 13-5 ATS vs. the AFC and 7-0 ATS in December. … Jacksonville is on an 8-2 under run in December. … Baltimore is on an 8-3 under streak vs. the AFC.
Pick: Ravens 31, Jaguars 13
Jets (0-13) at Rams (9-4)
Time: 1:05 p.m.
Line/total: Rams -17, 43½
Analysis: The Rams lead the NFL in total defense, allowing 285.8 yards per game, and they’re third in scoring defense (18.9 ppg) and sacks (42). The Jets might be the worst team we’ve seen in many years.
By the numbers: New York is on an 18-38-4 ATS slide as a road underdog and is 1-5 ATS in its last six road games. … The Rams are riding a 17-8-1 cover streak as favorites.
Pick: Rams 27, Jets 6
Eagles (4-8-1) at Cardinals (7-6)
Time: 1:05 p.m.
Line/total: Cardinals -6½, 49½
Analysis: This matchup will feature two former Oklahoma quarterbacks and two teams competing for their playoff lives. Eagles QB Jalen Hurts replaced the struggling Carson Wentz last week and led Philadelphia to a pivotal 24-21 upset win over New Orleans. Arizona’s defense (eight sacks) and QB Kyler Murray’s running were the difference in last week’s 26-7 win at the Giants. DeAndre Hopkins is a big reason Arizona is in position to make the playoffs. The star receiver has 94 receptions for 1,155 yards and five TDs.
By the numbers: Philadelphia is 0-5 ATS after an ATS win and 0-4 ATS in the last four meetings at Arizona. … The Cardinals are 8-3 ATS vs. teams with a losing record. … The Eagles are on a 6-1 under run vs. the NFC. … Arizona is on a 6-0 under streak vs. teams with a losing record.
Pick: Cardinals 27, Eagles 17
Chiefs (12-1) at Saints (10-3)
Time: 1:25 p.m., KLAS-8
Line/total: Chiefs -3, 52½
Analysis: A potential Super Bowl preview. Kansas City sits alone atop the AFC, and New Orleans is tied with Green Bay for the best record in the NFC, though it’s the No. 2 seed because of a loss to the Packers. Quarterback Drew Brees is expected to return for the Saints in a matchup with NFL leading passer Patrick Mahomes. New Orleans had its nine-game winning streak snapped at Philadelphia last week. The Chiefs have won eight straight. Mahomes recorded his sixth consecutive 300-yard game in last week’s win at Miami. But he could face strong pressure from the Saints, who are second in total defense (298.4 ypga) and tied for seventh in sacks (36).
By the numbers: Kansas City is on an 0-5 spread skid. … The Saints are riding a 6-1 cover streak as home underdogs. … The Chiefs are on a 7-3 under uptick on the road. … New Orleans is on a 5-1 under run.
Pick: Chiefs 23, Saints 20
Browns (9-4) at Giants (5-8)
Time: 5:20 p.m., KSNV-3
Line/total: Browns -6½, 44
Analysis: The Browns and Giants are looking to rebound after seeing their respective four-game winning streaks end last week. Baker Mayfield has Cleveland bidding for its first playoff appearance since 2002. The brash quarterback has accounted for nine touchdowns in his last three games. Browns running backs Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt lead the NFL’s third-ranked rushing offense (156.2 yards per game) against New York’s seventh-ranked rush defense (101.5 ypga). Myles Garrett and former Giant Olivier Vernon have combined for 17½ of Cleveland’s 34 sacks. They should add to that total against New York, which has allowed the third-most sacks (41) in the league. Colt McCoy is expected to start at quarterback for the Giants in place of injured Daniel Jones.
By the numbers: The Browns are on a 2-10 spread slide on the road. … The Giants are 6-0 ATS after an ATS loss. … New York is on a 7-1 ATS surge as an underdog.
Pick: Giants 23, Browns 20
Steelers (11-2) at Bengals (2-10-1)
Time: 5:15 p.m. Monday, ESPN
Line/total: Steelers -14½, 40
Analysis: Pittsburgh has lost two straight games, but has clinched a playoff spot and can wrap up the AFC North title with a win. In a game the Steelers would normally overlook, I see them coming to play all out. A key area for Pittsburgh is opening up the offense, an aspect offensive coordinator Randy Fichtner said has been difficult to work on with three games in a 12-day span that ended with Sunday’s 26-15 loss at Buffalo. The Bengals will turn to QB Ryan Finley, and I expect him to have a difficult time vs. a fired-up Pittsburgh defense.
By the numbers: The Steelers are 16-3-2 ATS in the last 21 meetings in Cincinnati. … The Bengals are 1-5 ATS in December. … Pittsburgh is riding an 8-1 under run in December.
Pick: Steelers 34, Bengals 13
