NFL betting breakdown: Week 14

NFL BREAKDOWN

“Dr. Alan” Dumond, Wizardraceandsports.com, @WizardPicks

Jets (7-5) at Bills (9-3)

Time: 10 a.m., KLAS-8

Line/total: Bills -10, 43

Analysis: The Bills have won three straight and enter this key AFC East matchup seeking revenge from a loss to the Jets earlier this season in New York. The Jets are coming off a disappointing loss last week at Minnesota, where they only scored one touchdown in six red zone trips. But the Jets have been much more productive since Mike White took over the QB reins from Zach Wilson. New York’s defense has kept it competitive in most of its games, and I expect to see another good defensive effort here. However, the call here is for the Bills to prevail and get their same-season division revenge.

By the numbers: Bills WR Stefon Diggs has caught a TD pass in each of the last three games and six out of eight. … The Jets are 4-2 straight-up and ATS on the road.

Pick: Bills 24, Jets 14

Browns (5-7) at Bengals (8-4)

Time: 10 a.m.

Line/total: Bengals -5½, 46½

Analysis: The Bengals enter this AFC North battle as one of the NFL’s hottest teams, having won four in a row and eight of 10 after an 0-2 start. Cincinnati is seeking revenge from a blowout loss to the Browns earlier this season in Cleveland. Browns QB Deshaun Watson was rusty and less than impressive last week in his season debut, a 27-14 win over Houston. I expect Watson to play much better in his second game and for Nick Chubb, the NFL’s second-leading rusher, to be fed the ball early and often. This will be a much closer game then most people are predicting.

By the numbers: The Browns have won the last five meetings and eight of the last nine. … Bengals QB Joe Burrow is the NFL’s second-ranked QB with 3,446 passing yards, 25 TD passes and eight interceptions.

Pick: Bengals 27, Browns 23

Texans (1-10-1) at Cowboys (9-3)

Time: 10 a.m.

Line/total: Cowboys -17, 44

Analysis: This is the NFL’s version of David vs. Goliath, with the largest point spread of the NFL season. The Cowboys are the far superior team on both sides of the ball, and also have a huge coaching advantage. But laying double digits in the NFL is always risky, as evidenced by fact that double-digit underdogs are 11-7 ATS this season. The Texans will have a puncher’s chance to cover the inflated line with QB Davis Mills back under center — if they can get the run game going with Dameon Pierce to limit the Cowboys’ offensive possessions.

By the numbers: Dallas is third in the NFL in scoring (27.7 points per game), trailing only the Chiefs and Eagles. … Despite their terrible record, the Texans have lost only one game by at least 18 points this season. … Cowboys QB Dak Prescott has thrown for 10 TDs and five interceptions since returning from his thumb injury.

Pick: Cowboys 31, Texans 17

Vikings (10-2) at Lions (5-7)

Time: 10 a.m.

Line/total: Lions - 2, 51½

Analysis: The Vikings lead the NFC North with a surprising 10-2 record, and can clinch the division title with a win. Minnesota has won nine games by eight points or fewer. The Lions are playing their best football right now, as they have gone 4-1 straight-up and 5-0 ATS in their last five games. Detroit will be be playing with same-season division revenge after losing 28-24 to the Vikings earlier this year at Minnesota. I expect another close, high-scoring game.

By the numbers: The Lions average 26.3 ppg, but they allow an NFL-worst 27.0 ppg. … The Vikings average 24.1 ppg and give up 23.3 ppg. … Minnesota RB Dalvin Cook is the NFL’s fifth-leading rusher with 927 yards.

Pick: Lions 31, Vikings 27

Eagles (11-1) at Giants (7-4-1)

Time: 10 a.m., KVVU-5

Line/total: Eagles -7, 45

Analysis: The Eagles have vastly overperformed preseason predictions. They’ve already flown over their season win total of 9½ and can clinch a playoff berth with a win. Philadelphia QB Jalen Hurts is having an MVP season, and the defense has limited eight of 12 opponents to 17 points or fewer. The Giants have also overperformed, already equaling their season win total of 7. Philadelphia coach Nick Sirianni and New York coach Brian Daboll have done fantastic jobs. Laying points on the road in a division game is always risky. To keep this one competitive, the Giants will need to establish the run game with Saquon Barkley to limit the possessions of the explosive Eagles offense.

By the numbers: The Eagles rank second in the NFL in scoring at 28.2 ppg. … Barkley is the NFL’s fourth-leading rusher with 1,055 yards. … The Giants have an 8-4 under mark.

Pick: Eagles 24, Giants 20

Ravens (8-4) at Steelers (5-7)

Time: 10 a.m.

Line/total: Steelers -1½, 36½

Analysis: Baltimore QB Lamar Jackson is out, and backup Tyler Huntley will start. The Ravens have won five of their last six games, while the Steelers have won three of four. Five of the last six meetings have been decided by five points or less. Three of the last four meetings have produced 39 points or fewer. With the Ravens starting Huntley and the Steelers starting rookie QB Kenny Pickett, expect another close, low-scoring game.

By the numbers: The Ravens have held three of their last four opponents to 13 points or less. … The Steelers have held three of their last four opponents to 17 points or fewer. … Pittsburgh has won the last four meetings.

Pick: Ravens 20, Steelers 16

Jaguars (4-8) at Titans (7-5)

Time: 10 a.m.

Line/total: Titans -3½, 41

Analysis: Both teams were blown out on the road last week and will be looking to bounce back. The Jaguars have an abysmal 1-5 road record. The Titans fired general manager Jon Robinson in response to last week’s embarrassing 35-10 loss to the Eagles, and this should help motivate Tennessee. Titans RB Derrick Henry is the NFL’s third-leading rusher, with 1,078 yards, and Tennessee looks primed to get the bounce-back win at home. Division games tend to be lower scoring, and this sets up to be a lower-scoring affair.

By the numbers: The Titans have held opponents to 3.6 yards per rush and 83 rushing yards per game, and have allowed only five rushing TDs. … Jaguars QB Trevor Lawrence played two awful games against Tennessee last season, throwing only one TD and five interceptions.

Pick: Titans 23, Jaguars 16

Chiefs (9-3) at Broncos (3-9)

Time: 1:05 p.m.

Line/total: Chiefs -9, 43½

Analysis: Both teams are coming off narrow losses. The Chiefs have bounced back after their previous two defeats this season, winning each subsequent game by double digits. On the flip side, it’s the same old story for the Broncos. Their defense continues to play well, but their pathetic offense can’t score enough points to get a much-needed win. The Russell Wilson trade has turned out to be colossal mistake for Denver. Laying points on the road in a division game is always risky, but it’s very unlikely that the Broncos will be able to score enough points to cover against the Patrick Mahomes-led, high-powered Chiefs offense.

By the numbers: The Broncos rank dead last in the NFL in scoring at 13.8 ppg. … The Chiefs lead the league in scoring with 29.2 ppg. … Denver is the NFL’s best under team (11-1).

Pick: Chiefs 28, Broncos 13

Buccaneers (6-6) at 49ers (8-4)

Time: 1:25 p.m., KVVU-5

Line/total: 49ers -3½, 37

Analysis: We have a lopsided QB matchup as Tom Brady, aka the GOAT, squares off against Brock Purdy, aka Mr. Irrelevant. But the 49ers are favored. On top of that, during coach Kyle Shanahan’s tenure in San Francisco, the Niners are 8-29 straight-up and 15-22 ATS in games not started by QB Jimmy Garoppolo. The Bucs have struggled on offense this season and are an NFL-worst 3-8-1 ATS. But there is too much value in getting Brady as an underdog vs. Purdy to look any other way. Both defenses are rock solid, and this shapes up to be a lower-scoring affair, likely decided by a field goal.

By the numbers: The 49ers lead the league in scoring defense, giving up only 15.8 ppg. … The Bucs rank fifth in scoring defense, allowing only 18.3 ppg.

Pick: Bucs 20, 49ers 17

Panthers (4-8) at Seahawks (7-5)

Time: 1:25 p.m.

Line/total: Seahawks -3½, 44½

Analysis: Seahawks QB Geno Smith is playing the best football of his NFL career. Seattle has already exceeded preseason expectations, surpassing its season win total of 5½, and it’s very much alive in the NFC playoff hunt. On the flip side, the Panthers, coming off of their bye week, have gone 3-3 straight-up and 5-1 ATS under interim coach Steve Wilks. Carolina will start QB Sam Darnold, who is coming off a well-played game vs. the Broncos. This shapes up to be a close game and could be decided by a field goal.

By the numbers: The Panthers have limited their last three opponents to 15 points or fewer while posting a 3-0 under mark. … The Seahawks have scored 27 points or more in five of their last six while posting a 4-2 over record.

Pick: Seahawks 24, Panthers 21

Dolphins (8-4) at Chargers (6-6)

Time: 5:20 p.m., KSNV-3

Line/total: Dolphins -3, 53½

Analysis: This is a bad scheduling spot for Miami, which is playing the second of back-to-back road games on the West Coast, and is favored. The Dolphins have a high-powered offense, and they will likely have success against a Chargers defense that gives up an average of 25.8 ppg. On the flip side, Los Angeles needs to win this game badly to stay in contention for a wild-card playoff spot. The Chargers have played close games recently, with their last five games decided by seven points or fewer and three of those games decided by three points or fewer. Another close game is expected here, and a higher-scoring affair seems likely.

By the numbers: Chargers QB Justin Herbert is the NFL’s fourth-ranked passer with 3,339 passing yards, 20 TDs and seven interceptions. … In 15 road starts in his NFL career, Dolphins QB Tua Tagovailoa is 6-8-1 ATS.

Pick: Chargers 30, Dolphins 27

Patriots (6-6) at Cardinals (4-8)

Time: 5:15 p.m. Monday, ESPN

Line/total: Patriots -1½, 43½

Analysis: Both squads are looking to snap a two-game losing streak. The Cardinals have an awful 1-6 home record, while the Patriots are 3-3 on the road. New England’s offense looked horrible last time out in a 24-10 loss to the Bills, but it should find success against Arizona’s No. 31 scoring defense, which allows 26.8 ppg. On the flip side, the Cardinals also should find some success against a Patriots defense that has given up 57 points in the last two games. New England has the coaching advantage with Bill Belichick over Arizona’s Kliff Kingsbury, and that could turn out to be the difference in what will most likely be a higher-scoring affair.

By the numbers: The Cardinals are riding a 5-0-1 over run. … The Patriots have won and covered five of their last eight games.

Pick: Patriots 27, Cardinals 24