NFL betting breakdown: Week 14

BETTING BREAKDOWN

Joe D’Amico, Aasiwins.com, Gamechangerz.ca, Pickdawgz.com, Sportsmemo.com

Raiders (6-6) at Chiefs (8-4)

Time: 10 a.m., KLAS-8

Line/total: Chiefs -10, 48

Analysis: Despite the Chiefs winning five consecutive games, they have been double-digit favorites only once this season, failing to cover in a 20-17 win over the Giants. To say the Raiders have experienced a disappointing campaign would be an understatement. However, quarterback Derek Carr leads the NFL’s No. 2-ranked passing attack, averaging 291.3 yards per game. And defending the pass has been a major issue for Kansas City’s secondary, ranked No. 24 in the league.

By the numbers: The Raiders are 5-1 ATS as road underdogs. … The Chiefs are 3-9 ATS as home favorites.

Pick: Chiefs 27, Raiders 24

Saints (5-7) at Jets (3-9)

Time: 10 a.m.

Line/total: New Orleans -6, 43

Analysis: The Saints are mired in a five-game losing streak and must win if they’re going to salvage their season. No matter who is under center, New Orleans is expected to get a boost from the return of running back Alvin Kamara and a few other key players. And facing New York’s league-worst scoring defense, which gives up 30.6 points per game, should remedy any offensive ailments.

By the numbers: The Saints are 17-8 ATS as road favorites. … The Jets are an NFL-worst 3-9 ATS this season.

Pick: Saints 24, Jets 17

Jaguars (2-10) at Titans (8-4)

Time: 10 a.m.

Line/total: Tennessee -8½, 43½

Analysis: When running back Derrick Henry went down, so did the Tennessee offense. The Titans went from scoring 34 points to 28 to 23 to 13 in each of their past two games. Granted, Jacksonville averages a mere 15.0 points per game. But with the Titans struggling to cross the goal line, there is no way they should be laying nearly double digits in what should be a low-scoring game.

By the numbers: Tennessee is on a 5-2 under uptick at home. … Jacksonville is on a 10-1 under streak this season.

Pick: Titans 20, Jaguars 13

Ravens (8-4) at Browns (6-6)

Time: 10 a.m.

Line/total: Cleveland -3, 42½

Analysis: This is one of the toughest games on the card to handicap. These teams met two weeks ago in Baltimore, where the Ravens won 16-10 despite four interceptions by Lamar Jackson. Both offenses are struggling, as Baltimore has averaged 15.2 ppg in its past four games and Cleveland has scored 10.0 ppg in its past three. Both defenses have tightened up recently, so expect another low-scoring matchup.

By the numbers: The under is 7-3 in the past 10 meetings. … The Ravens are riding a 5-0 under streak in their past five road games. … The Browns have gone under in four of their past five home games.

Pick: Ravens 17, Browns 14

Falcons (5-7) at Panthers (5-7)

Time: 10 a.m.

Line/total: Panthers -2½, 41

Analysis: Carolina parted ways with offensive coordinator Joe Brady during the bye week, and Christian McCaffrey, its only true offensive weapon, is out for the season. The Panthers are on a two-game slide (straight up and ATS) and face a division rival that has covered nine of the past 12 meetings. When, like Carolina, you’re second in total defense (290.9 yards per game allowed) and seventh in scoring defense (21.1 ppga) and are 5-7, there are deep problems on offense that can’t be solved until the offseason.

By the numbers: The Falcons are 11-4 ATS vs. teams with a losing record and 4-1 ATS on the road. … The Panthers are 2-5 ATS vs. the NFC and 1-7 ATS as home favorites.

Pick: Falcons 23, Panthers 20

Cowboys (8-4) at Football Team (6-6)

Time: 10 a.m.

Line/total: Cowboys -4½, 48

Analysis: The public moved on Washington early in the week because it has won and covered four straight. But the Football Team won’t be able to keep pace with Dallas’ high-flying offense. The Cowboys got back key players on both sides of the ball in last week’s 27-17 win at New Orleans. Quarterback Dak Prescott and the NFL’s No. 4-ranked passing attack will shred Washington’s 30th-ranked pass defense.

By the numbers: The Cowboys are 7-0 ATS vs. the NFC, 5-1 ATS on the road and riding a 12-4 cover streak overall.

Pick: Cowboys 30, WFT 17

Seahawks (4-8) at Texans (2-10)

Time: 10 a.m.

Line/total: Seahawks -8½, 40½

Analysis: This game has “trap” written all over it. The Seahawks haven’t laid this many points since December 2020, when they faced the lowly Jets. I made this line closer to 6. Seattle crushes bettors when it’s a favorite, and the Seahawks aren’t that dependable ATS away from home, either.

By the numbers: Seattle is 1-4 ATS as a favorite, 3-9 ATS on the road and 1-7 ATS as a road favorite.

Pick: Seahawks 24, Texans 20

Lions (1-10-1) at Broncos (6-6)

Time: 1:05 p.m.

Line/total: Broncos -11, 42

Analysis: Winning and covering are two entirely different things. Getting their first win of the season will take a ton of pressure off the Lions. Detroit is one of the NFL’s best ATS teams, going 8-4 with four consecutive covers. There is no debating the Broncos have an outstanding defense, but their offense leaves a lot to be desired. There is no way they should be laying double digits to any foe.

By the numbers: Denver is 4-10-1 ATS as a home favorite. … The Lions are 4-0 ATS as a visitor. … Detroit is on a 5-0 under run on the road, and Denver is on a 5-1 under streak at home.

Pick: Broncos 21, Lions 13

Giants (4-8) at Chargers (7-5)

Time: 1:05 p.m., KVVU-5

Line/total: Chargers -9, 43

Analysis: Los Angeles has alternated wins and losses in its past six games, and New York has done the same in its past seven. The only difference is the Chargers are on a 2-5 spread slide, and the Giants are riding a 4-2 ATS surge. New York’s offense is one of the NFL’s weakest, but its defense has held steady.

By the numbers: The Giants are 21-8 ATS on the road. … The Chargers are 18-40-1 ATS at home.

Pick: Chargers 27, Giants 20

49ers (6-6) at Bengals (7-5)

Time: 1:25 p.m.

Line/total: San Francisco -2, 49

Analysis: Banged-up Bengals quarterback Joe Burrow and running back Joe Mixon will line up against a 49ers defense looking for redemption after last week’s loss to the rival Seahawks. Defensive lineman Nick Bosa (12 sacks) and San Francisco’s swarming pass rush will spend almost as much time in the Cincinnati backfield as the Bengals. The 49ers’ potent running game will exploit the Bengals’ leaky run defense and allow QB Jimmy Garoppolo to open up the passing attack.

By the numbers: The road team is 3-1-1 ATS in the past five meetings. … Cincinnati is 1-4 ATS at home.

Pick: 49ers 31, Bengals 21

Bills (7-5) at Buccaneers (9-3)

Time: 1:25 p.m., KLAS-8

Line/total: Buccaneers -3½, 54½

Analysis: The Bills are 4-2 on the road, but that includes wins over two last-place teams in the Jets and Saints and a loss to the last-place Jaguars. Now they travel to Tampa to face a Bucs team that has won and covered three straight. Tampa Bay QB Tom Brady will dissect Buffalo’s overworked and overrated defense. On the flip side, Bills QB Josh Allen is in for a long day lining up against a defense that is back at full strength and ranks second against the run. Without a successful ground game to lean on, Allen is going to be a sitting duck.

By the numbers: The Buccaneers are 4-0 ATS at home and 12-3-2 in December.

Pick: Buccaneers 34, Bills 23

Bears (4-8) at Packers (9-3)

Time: 5:20 p.m., KSNV-3

Line/total: Packers -12½, 43

Analysis: Rookie QB Justin Fields will return from injury for Chicago, but it won’t make a difference as the Bears rank 30th in scoring (16.8 ppg). The Packers’ fifth-ranked defense will shut down the lackluster unit. Green Bay QB Aaron Rodgers yelled “I still own you” to the Soldier Field crowd Oct. 17, when the Packers thumped the Bears 24-14. A win will move Green Bay closer to owning its division and the NFC.

By the numbers: Chicago is 1-4 ATS at Lambeau Field and 7-21 ATS vs. Green Bay overall.

Pick: Packers 28, Bears 17

Rams (8-4) at Cardinals (10-2)

Time: 5:15 p.m. Monday, ESPN

Line/total: Cardinals -2½, 51½

Analysis: This is an ideal opportunity for the division-leading Cardinals to expand their lead in the NFC West. Arizona QB Kyler Murray returned for last week’s win and cover over the Bears, completing 11 of 15 passes for 123 yards, two touchdowns and no interceptions while rushing for 59 yards and two TDs. Los Angeles has lost three of its past four games and is on a 1-5 spread slide. The Rams can throw the ball, but Arizona counters with one of the NFL’s best pass defenses and the No. 4 scoring defense (18.7 ppga).

By the numbers: The Rams are 2-5 ATS on the road. … Arizona is 4-0 ATS vs. the NFC West.

Pick: Cardinals 34, Rams 21