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NFL betting breakdown: Week 12

Updated November 28, 2020 - 2:07 pm

Dana Lane, @DanaLaneSports

Raiders (6-4) at Falcons (3-7)

Time: 10 a.m., KLAS-8

Line/total: Raiders -3, 53½

Analysis: The Raiders are in position to secure just their second playoff appearance since their Super Bowl run in 2002. But it’s tough to expect the same ferocity Las Vegas showed in last week’s intense 35-31 home loss to rival Kansas City. Hopefully for Raiders fans, the 2020 team won’t repeat what it did last season, when it started 6-4 but finished 1-5 while averaging 14.7 points in that span. This team is better than last year’s squad, though.

By the numbers: The Falcons are riding an 8-3 ATS streak as underdogs and a 10-4 cover streak as home underdogs. … Las Vegas is tied for the NFL’s top over-under record at 7-2-1. … The Falcons have won three of four games after an 0-5 start.

Pick: Falcons 31, Raiders 24

Cardinals (6-4) at Patriots (4-6)

Time: 10 a.m.

Line/total: Cardinals -2, 49

Analysis: Hard to imagine that a New England win would be classified as an upset, but the Patriots are still trying to find an identity. With the arrival of the undisciplined Cardinals, this might be the week that gives the Patriots clarity on what they can still achieve. Arizona leads the league in accepted penalties against (79), which have led to an NFL-high 24 stalled drives. I’m not comfortable betting on Arizona second-year starting quarterback Kyler Murray against a Bill Belichick defense that won’t have to game plan for Larry Fitzgerald, who was placed on the COVID-19 list.

By the numbers: The Patriots are 8-1 ATS in their last nine games as home underdogs. … The Cardinals are on a 5-0 under run on the road and 7-3 under surge overall.

Pick: Patriots 26, Cardinals 21

Giants (3-7) at Bengals (2-7-1)

Time: 10 a.m.

Line/total: Giants -6, 44

Analysis: I’m not ready to go all-in on the Bengals, especially in Brandon Allen’s first start in a calendar year. But there’s no way I’m laying six points on the road with New York. The home team has won the last 10 meetings, and the Giants are 16-23 after their bye week. After the Bengals lost quarterback Joe Burrow, this normally would be a pass for me. But everything I’m hearing out of Cincinnati is positive, with a feeling of “Win this one for Joe.”

By the numbers: Cincinnati is 6-1 ATS in its last seven games after a loss. … The underdog has covered the last four meetings. … The Bengals are on a 7-2 over run after a loss.

Pick: Giants 26, Bengals 23

Browns (7-3) at Jaguars (1-9)

Time: 10 a.m.

Line/total: Browns 7, 48½

Analysis: This is not one of my favorite games. It’s always hard to feel good about having the Jaguars on a ticket, especially with Mike Glennon at quarterback. But with Tennessee and Baltimore up next for the Browns, I imagine that they’ll try to quietly get out of Jacksonville without injuries or showing too much on film to their conference rivals. Expect an ugly, low-scoring game.

By the numbers: Cleveland is 1-9 ATS in its last 10 road games and 1-4 ATS in the past five meetings. … The under is 8-2 in the Jaguars’ last 10 games vs. teams with a winning record.

Pick: Browns 21, Jaguars 16

Panthers (4-7) at Vikings (4-6)

Time: 10 a.m.

Line/total: Vikings -3, 49½

Analysis: It’s been tough for Carolina with star running back Christian McCaffrey playing in only three games. He’s been ruled out of this game, too, but there is a bright spot with the expected return of QB Teddy Bridgewater. The Panthers probably will lean on Mike Davis, who leads all running backs in receptions with 49. The Panthers are coming off a 20-0 shutout of Detroit, and their defense will do just enough to allow Bridgewater to pull this one out in the fourth quarter.

By the numbers: The Panthers are on a 6-1 cover streak as underdogs. … The underdog has covered five of the last six meetings.

Pick: Panthers 26, Vikings 23

Titans (7-3) at Colts (7-3)

Time: 10 a.m.

Line/total: Colts -3, 51½

Analysis: I’ve seen this scenario before, where a team’s depleted defensive line (Colts) faces the league’s leading rusher (Derrick Henry). This appears to be a chance for Henry to have a huge day, but sports betting is rarely that easy. We don’t give enough credit to backups, and Indianapolis’ reserves will get the chance to prove their worth for the NFL’s No. 2 total defense. We also can’t overlook Frank Reich’s stellar coaching staff. Henry will get his yards, but the Colts’ defense will come up big again.

By the numbers: Indy is 14-5 ATS vs. teams with a winning record and 8-3 ATS vs. the AFC South. … The favorite is 13-3 ATS in the last 16 meetings. … The under is 14-5 in the last 19 meetings in Indianapolis.

Pick: Colts 28, Titans 21

Chargers (3-7) at Bills (7-3)

Time: 10 a.m.

Line/total: Bills -4½, 52½

Analysis: Buffalo QB Josh Allen is ahead of Los Angeles QB Justin Herbert in regards to the maturation process. But don’t just blindly wager on the Bills because you think they’ll be fired up after Arizona stole a 32-30 victory from them two weeks ago. Herbert has topped 300 yards passing five times and needs three TD passes to become the fourth rookie to reach 25. There’s a chance that Chargers running back Austin Ekeler returns from a hamstring injury, and I expect the Los Angeles offense to be efficient enough to stay within the number.

By the numbers: The Chargers are 13-6-2 ATS in their last 21 road games and 32-15-4 ATS in their past 51 games as road underdogs. … Los Angeles has covered the last four meetings. … The Chargers are on a 39-19-1 under streak after a win.

Pick: Bills 27, Chargers 24

Dolphins (6-4) at Jets (0-10)

Time: 10 a.m.

Line/total: Dolphins -6½, 44½

Analysis: I’ll take the Jets and cross my fingers while pinching my eyes tight. The Jets have resembled an NFL team in their last two games with chances to beat the Chargers and Patriots. New York is a much better team when Denzel Mims, Jamison Crowder and Breshad Perriman are on the field at the same time, as they will be Sunday. I expect Sam Darnold to take some shots early to alleviate Miami’s pressure up front.

By the numbers: The Dolphins are on a 9-19-1 spread slump after scoring fewer than 15 points in their previous game. … The Jets are 5-2 ATS in their last seven games as home underdogs. … The over is 7-1 in Miami’s last eight games after a loss.

Pick: Dolphins 26, Jets 21

Saints (8-2) at Broncos (4-6)

Time: 1:05 p.m., KVVU-5

Line/total: Saints -6½, 42½

Analysis: New Orleans has been on a defensive roll since its bye week. The Saints have held four of their last five opponents to fewer than 300 yards of total offense and have given up one touchdown in their past three games. Running backs Melvin Gordon and Phillip Lindsay must find success against the Saints’ stout run defense for Denver to stay close. I’m encouraged enough by the play of the Broncos’ offensive line to back them.

By the numbers: Denver is on a 14-5-1 under streak after a win and 14-6 under run at home. … New Orleans is 1-4 ATS in the last five meetings.

Pick: Saints 21, Broncos 17

49ers (4-6) at Rams (7-3)

Time: 1:05 p.m.

Line/total: Rams -6½, 44½

Analysis: This is the hardest game on the board for me because the number is exactly where I had it. The 49ers have been hit hard by injuries, but got good news when Richard Sherman, Raheem Mostert and Jeff Wilson Jr, were added to the active roster. Kyle Shanahan has had two weeks to prepare for the Rams, a team the Niners beat 24-16 in Week 6. The Rams will win, but have a bit of a letdown after Monday night’s victory at Tampa Bay.

By the numbers: The underdog has covered seven of the last 10 meetings … San Francisco is 7-3 ATS in the past 10 meetings and 5-2 ATS in the last seven meetings in Los Angeles. The over is 5-2 in the last seven meetings in Los Angeles.

Pick: Rams 26, 49ers 21

Chiefs (9-1) at Buccaneers (7-4)

Time: 1:25 p.m., KLAS-8

Line/total: Chiefs -3½, 56½

Analysis: The focus always will be on Tom Brady, but Tampa Bay’s defense should at least share the spotlight. The Buccaneers rank second against the pass in DVOA (Defense-adjusted Value Over Average), a number similar to WAR in baseball, and first against the run. The Chiefs rank 14th and 30th, respectively. The last time Brady came into a game with something to prove, the Bucs scored 46 points against Carolina.

By the numbers: Tampa has covered four of its last five games after a loss. … Kansas City is on a 6-2 under streak on the road.

Pick: Buccaneers 30, Chiefs 24

Bears (5-5) at Packers (7-3)

Time: 5:20 p.m., KSNV-3

Line/total: Packers -9½, 43½

Analysis: The Bears have leaned far too much on their defense after getting off to a promising start against a soft schedule. Injuries on the offensive line have contributed to Chicago’s four-game losing streak (1-3 ATS), along with erratic quarterback play, a nonexistent running game and head-scratching play calling. Until I can rely on Chicago’s pass protection, I’m not backing the Bears.

By the numbers: Chicago is 5-14 ATS in the last 19 meetings and is on a 7-15 spread slide overall. … The Packers are 7-0 ATS after a loss and 14-3 ATS after an ATS loss.

Pick: Packers 30, Bears 16

Seahawks (7-3) at Eagles (3-6-1)

Time: 5:15 p.m. Monday, ESPN

Line/total: Seahawks -5½, 49

Analysis: With a win, the Eagles will lead the woeful NFC East with six weeks left. It appears struggling Philadelphia QB Carson Wentz will start, but he’ll be on a short leash against Seattle’s porous defense. Seahawks QB Russell Wilson is 9-0 against Philadelphia.

By the numbers: Seattle is last in the league in passing yards allowed (343.7 per game). … The Seahawks are on an 0-3 spread skid on the road.

Pick: Seahawks 27, Eagles 24

Ravens (6-4) at Steelers (10-0)

Time: 4:10 p.m. Tuesday, KSNV-3

Line/total: Steelers -7½, 41½

Analysis: This game was moved from Thanksgiving night after several Ravens players and staff tested positive for COVID-19. The virus has decimated Baltimore’s offensive line and running game. Pittsburgh won the first meeting 28-24, but there’s little reason to be involved with a game with so many question marks. You can expect a big effort from Baltimore’s defense, but it won’t be enough to hand the Steelers their first loss.

By the numbers: The Ravens are on a 1-8 ATS slide after a loss. … The Steelers are on a 7-1 cover streak. … Pittsburgh is on a 17-7-2 under uptick vs. the AFC.

Pick: Steelers 26, Ravens 20

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