NFL BAD BEATS BLOG: Wild-card round starts with improbable upset
Welcome to the first day of the NFL wild-card playoffs.
In the first game, the Seattle Seahawks play at their NFC West rivals the San Francisco 49ers. Then, the Jacksonville Jaguars host the Los Angeles Chargers.
Refresh this blog throughout the games to track bad beats, movement on the live betting line, halftime bets and more.
UPDATES
8:40 p.m.: That’s it for today. Favorites went 1-1 against the spread, and totals were 2-0 to the over. The 49ers used a big second half to cover in a 41-23 win, while the Jaguars recorded one of the biggest postseason comebacks in NFL history to beat the Chargers 31-30. Jacksonville was +2000 on the live line in the second quarter.
8:35 p.m.: Here are betting results from today’s games, with some key boxscore stats:
— 49ers 41, Seahawks 23 (at Santa Clara, Calif.)
Full-game winners: 49ers -9, over 42, 49ers -500
First-half winners: Seahawks +6, over 20½ (Seahawks 17-16)
Second-half winners: 49ers -6, over 21½ (49ers 25-6)
Yards per play: Seahawks 5.3, 49ers 7.9 (49ers lead 505-332 in total yards)
Turnovers: 49ers +2 (2-0)
Biggest lead: Seahawks 14-13, 17-16; 49ers 41-17
— Jaguars 31, Chargers 30 (at Jacksonville)
Full-game winners: Jaguars +2, over 46½, Jaguars +115 ML
First-half winners: Chargers -½, over 23 (Chargers 27-7)
Second-half winners: Jaguars -3, over 23 (Jaguars 24-3)
Yards per play: Chargers 4.6, Jaguars 5.6 (Jaguars lead 390-320 in total yards)
Turnovers: Chargers +5 (5-0)
Biggest lead: Chargers 27-0; Jaguars 31-30
8:29 p.m.: FINAL: Jaguars 31, Chargers 30. Riley Patterson nailed a 36-yard field goal as time expired, and the Jaguars rallied from a 27-point deficit to pull the upset as +115 money-line underdogs. The game went over the total of 46½.
8:21 p.m.: Two-minute warning. Chargers 30, Jaguars 28. The Jaguars are -240 on the live line, Chargers +195.
8:18 p.m.: The Jaguars get another stop and take over at their own 21 with 3:09 left to play. A field goal could win it. The Chargers are -120 on the live line, Jaguars -110.
8:13 p.m.: Will there be a successful 2-point conversion (yes +320) cashes.
8:11 p.m.: Christian Kirk makes the catch in the corner of the end zone and it’s a one-possession game. The Jaguars trail the Chargers 30-28 with 5:25 left in the fourth quarter after the two-point conversion is successful. The Chargers are -180 on the live line (Jaguars +150).
7:59 p.m.: The Chargers chew up a good chunk of time, but Cameron Dicker hooks the field-goal attempt and the Chargers remain in front of the Jaguars 30-20 with 8:47 left in the fourth quarter. The Chargers are -600 on the live line (Jaguars +420), spread -6½, total 57½.
7:42 p.m.: END OF THE THIRD QUARTER. Chargers 30, Jaguars 20. The Chargers are -450 on the live line (Jaguars +340), spread -6, total 62.
7:37 p.m.: Zay Jones finds a soft spot in the Chargers secondary and snags the 39-yard touchdown from Trevor Lawrence for the Jaguars. The Chargers lead the Jaguars 30-20 with 44 seconds to go in the third quarter after the two-point conversion failed. The Chargers are -600 on the live line (Jaguars +420), spread -7½, total 63½.
LAWRENCE TO ZAY JONES. 39-YARD TD. #SuperWildCard
📺: #LACvsJAX on NBC
📱: Stream on NFL+ https://t.co/LG9lf52l9m pic.twitter.com/E7VZZpAExe— NFL (@NFL) January 15, 2023
7:33 p.m.: Cameron Dicker splits the uprights from 50 yards and the Chargers lead the Jaguars 30-14 with 2:58 left in the third quarter. The Chargers are -1100 on the live line (Jaguars +650), spread -10½, total 58½.
7:25 p.m.: That’s a big drive from the Jaguars. Marvin Jones makes a diving catch in the end zone and suddenly it’s Chargers 27, Jaguars 14 with 5:11 to go in the third quarter. The Chargers are -700 on the live line (Jaguars +475), spread -10½, total 57½.
7:04 p.m.: The Chargers get the ball to start the second half.
6:54 p.m.: Second-half line: Jaguars -3, total 23.
6:51 p.m.: HALFTIME: Chargers 27, Jaguars 7. First-half winners: Chargers -½, over 23. The favorite forced four turnovers to cover easily.
6:48 p.m.: The Jaguars have life. Evan Engram’s touchdown reception cuts the Chargers lead to 27-7 in the final minute of the half. The Chargers are -3000 on the live line (Jaguars +1200), spread -17½, total 57½.
6:31 p.m.: Chargers 27, Jaguars 0 with 4:25 left in the second quarter. The Chargers are -6000 on the live line (Jaguars +2000), spread -23½, total 54½.
6:28 p.m.: Keystone Cops on the punt, and the Chargers recover the loose ball with 5:14 left until halftime.3Nothing is going the Jaguars’ way. The Chargers are -6000 on the live line (Jaguars +2000), spread -25½, total 56½.
6:20 p.m.: Asante Samuel Jr. snags his third interception of the half and the Chargers’ fourth. This is quickly getting into blowout territory.
6:14 p.m.: Gerald Everett beats man coverage and scores on a 9-yard reception. The Chargers are cruising, up 24-0 over the Jaguars midway through the second quarter. The Chargers are -3000 on the live line (Jaguars +1200), spread -20½, total 53½.
The @Chargers open a 24-0 lead in the first half! #SuperWildCard
📺: #LACvsJAX on NBC
📱: Stream on NFL+ https://t.co/LG9lf52l9m pic.twitter.com/mGJCzOYRqi— NFL (@NFL) January 15, 2023
6:00 p.m.: END OF THE FIRST QUARTER. Chargers 17, Jaguars 0. First-quarter winners: Chargers -½, over 9½.
5:56 p.m.: Austin Ekeler scoots outside and lowers his shoulder to get into the end zone. The Chargers lead the Jaguars 17-0 with 44 seconds left in the first quarter thanks to three takeaways. The Chargers are -900 on the live line (Jaguars +575), spread -14½, total 52½.
5:54 p.m.: Hat trick. The Chargers pick off Trevor Lawrence for the third time. Big swing after the pass interference penalty on first down was waved off.
5:38 p.m.: Cameron Dicker is good from 22 yards and the Chargers lead the Jaguars 10-0 at the 5:30 mark of the first quarter. All of Los Angeles’ points have come off turnovers. The Chargers are -380 on the live line (Jaguars +290), spread -7½, total 50½.
5:28 p.m.: That’s interception No. 2 for the Chargers defense. Not a good start for Trevor Lawrence. The Chargers are -380 on the live line (Jaguars +290), spread -7½, total 50½.
5:21 p.m.: Austin Ekeler was 5-1 at the Westgate SuperBook to score the game’s first touchdown.
5:19 p.m.: Austin Ekeler cashes in on the turnover, scoring on a 13-yard run. The Chargers lead the Jaguars 7-0 early in the first quarter and are -260 on the live line (Jaguars +210), spread -6½, total 52½.
5:17 p.m.: The Chargers defense comes up with a big play early, intercepting Trevor Lawrence in the opening minute. Los Angeles takes over at the plus 18-yard line.
5:16 p.m.: The Chargers and Jaguars have kicked off. Jacksonville gets the ball first.
5:09 p.m.: The Chargers are now -2 at the Westgate SuperBook.
5:00 p.m.: This evening’s game:
— Chargers (-2½, 46½, -135) at Jaguars (+115), 5:20 p.m.
4:52 p.m.: Here are some of the props we’ll be tracking today for the Chargers-Jaguars game:
Team totals: Chargers 24½ (under -13), Jaguars 22½ (over -120).
Alternate point spreads: Chargers -7½ (+250), +3½ (-240); Jaguars +7½ (-300), -3½ (+200).
General props: First score will be a touchdown (yes -170/no +150); largest lead 14½ points (under -140); longest TD 41½ yards; will there be a made field goal in the first quarter (yes even/no -120); will the game go to overtime (yes +1,000/no -2,000); will there be a defensive or special teams TD (yes +270/no -330); will there be a successful 2-point conversion (yes +320/no -380); will both teams make 33-yard or longer field goals (yes +110/no -130); will there be a lead change in the fourth quarter (yes +270/no -330); will either team score three straight times (yes -185/no +165); will there be a score in the final two minutes of the first half (yes -330/no +270); will the game be tied again after 0-0 (yes even/no -120).
Chargers props: Justin Herbert 25½ completions (over -12), 39½ attempts, 279½ passing yards, longest completion 37½ yards, 1½ TD passes (over -145), will throw an interception (yes +105/no -125); Austin Ekeler 90½ rushing+receiving yards, will score a TD (yes -155/no +135); Keenan Allen 82½ receiving yards, 6½ receptions (over -160), will score a TD (yes +120/no -140); Cameron Dicker 6½ kicking points (over -130).
Jaguars props: Trevor Lawrence 22½ completions, 34½ attempts (under -120), 245½ passing yards, longest completion 35½ yards, 1½ TD passes, will throw an interception (yes +110/no -130); Travis Etienne 95½ rushing+receiving yards, will score a TD (yes even/no -120); Christian Kirk 58½ receiving yards; Zay Jones 45½ receiving yards; Evan Engram 39½ receiving yards; Riley Patterson 6½ kicking points (over -125).
4:34 p.m.: FINAL: 49ers 41, Seahawks 23. QB Brock Purdy accounted for four TDs, and the favorites used a dominant second half to cover as 9-point favorites. The game went over the total of 42.
4:30 p.m.: 49ers 41, Seahawks 23 with 1:48 remaining. Geno Smith goes over 1½ TD passes.
4:15 p.m.: Brandon Aiyuk can’t make the catch in the corner of the end zone to complete what would have been a spectacular TD. Instead they settle for a field goal and lead the Seahawks 41-17 with 4:56 left in the fourth quarter.
4:06 p.m.: And now the 49ers intercept Geno Smith. It’s snowballing on the Seahawks.
4:03 p.m.: Deebo Samuel way over 59½ rushing+receiving yards.
4:02 p.m.: The 49ers are dominating the second half. Deebo Samuel turns the short completion into a 74-yard touchdown. The 49ers lead 38-17 with 10:51 left in the fourth quarter.
3:50 p.m.: Successful 2-point conversion (yes +400) hits.
3:48 p.m.: Brock Purdy extends the play and then finds Elijah Mitchell open in the flat for a 7-yard touchdown. The two-point conversion is good to George Kittle and the 49ers lead 31-17 with 14:02 remaining. The 49ers are -4000 on the live line (Seahawks +1400), spread -13½, total 57½.
Brock. Purdy. PLAYMAKER.@BrockPurdy13 #SuperWildCard
📺: #SEAvsSF on FOX
📱: Stream on NFL+ https://t.co/96NMtTe9OX pic.twitter.com/WjmJ95VmGx— NFL (@NFL) January 14, 2023
3:46 p.m.: Brock Purdy is over 215½ passing yards.
3:43 p.m.: END OF THE THIRD QUARTER. 49ers 23, Seahawks 17. The 49ers are -1000 on the live line (Seahawks +625), spread -8½, total 52½.
3:38 p.m.: Nick Bosa pounces on the loose football, and the 49ers defense comes up with a big play leading 23-17 late in the third quarter. The 49ers are -800 on the live line (Seahawks +525), spread -8½, total 53½.
3:20 p.m.: Brock Purdy caps a 13-play drive with a 1-yard TD run and the 49ers lead the Seahawks 23-17 midway through the third quarter. The 49ers are -550 on the live line (Seahawks +400), spread -6½, total 55½.
3:11 p.m.: The 49ers get the ball to start the second half.
3:00 p.m.: Second-half line: 49ers -6, total 21½.
2:57 p.m.: HALFTIME: Seahawks 17, 49ers 16. First-half winners: Seahawks +6, over 20½. Jason Myers nailed a 56-yard kick for the outright cover by the underdog after a roughing-the-passer penalty with 1 second left in the half moved Seattle into field-goal position.
2:52 p.m.: The 49ers take a 16-14 lead over the Seahawks on a Robbie Gould field goal late in the second quarter. He’s over 7½ kicking points.
2:47 p.m.: Brandon Aiyuk is over 42½ receiving yards after that long reception.
2:42 p.m.: Two-minute warning. The 49ers are -250 on the live line (Seahawks +200), total 51½.
2:33 p.m.: Geno Smith floats a perfect pass down the sideline and D.K. Metcalf brings it in for a 50-yard touchdown. The Seahawks lead 14-13 with 5:01 left in the second quarter and the first-half over is in. The 49ers are -350 on the live line (Seahawks +270), spread -6½, total 53½.
2:27 p.m.: The 49ers drive stalls but they add Robbie Gould’s short field goal and now lead the Seahawks 13-7 midway through the second quarter. The 49ers are -700 on the live line (Seahawks +475), spread -10½, total 47½.
2:19 p.m.: Brock Purdy is high-stepping.
.@BrockPurdy13 high-stepping for the first down
📺: #SEAvsSF on FOX
📱: Stream on NFL+ https://t.co/96NMtTe9OX pic.twitter.com/kriq4IyIZJ— NFL (@NFL) January 14, 2023
2:13 p.m.: Kenneth Walker III gets to the edge and scores on a 7-yard run. Seattle trails 10-7 with 13:14 left in the second quarter. That was a big response for Seahawks bettors. The 49ers are -550 on the live line (Seahawks +400), spread -9½, total 49½.
2:07 p.m.: END OF THE FIRST QUARTER. 49ers 10, Seahawks 0. First-quarter winners: 49ers -3, over 7½. The 49ers are -700 on the live line (Seahawks +475), spread -13½, total 45½.
1:56 p.m.: McCaffrey was 4-1 at the Westgate SuperBook to score the first touchdown and -175 to score anytime TD.
1:53 p.m.: Brock Purdy slides out of pressure and finds Christian McCaffrey in the flat for a 3-yard touchdown. That was all set up by McCaffrey’s 66-yard run on the first play of the drive. The 49ers lead 10-0 with 5:11 left in the first quarter and are -1400 on the live line (Seahawks +800), spread -16½, total 44½.
.@BrockPurdy13 goes through his progressions and finds @CMC_22 for the TD! #FTTB #SuperWildCard
📺: #SEAvsSF on FOX
📱: Stream on NFL+ https://t.co/96NMtTe9OX pic.twitter.com/MnZuTjbYYO— NFL (@NFL) January 14, 2023
1:41 p.m.: Brock Purdy’s accuracy is a little off on the first drive and the 49ers settle for a 34-yard field goal from Robbie Gould to lead 3-0 over the Sehawks early in the first quarter. The 49ers are -550 on the live line (Seahawks +400), spread -11½, total 40½.
1:35 p.m.: The Seahawks gain 9 yards on first down and end up going three-and-out.
1:33 p.m.: Cool retro end zone art.
1:32 p.m.: The Seahawks and 49ers are underway from soggy Santa Clara, California.
1:25 p.m.: The 49ers are down to -9 at the Westgate SuperBook.
1:23 p.m.: Update from Station Casinos:
STN Sports betting outlook 🏈
Early game:
71% on the 49ers -points
59% on the overLate game:
52% on the Jags +points
61% on the over— Station Casinos Sports Betting (@STNSportsApp) January 14, 2023
Big bets continue to flood in ahead of kickoff! A few notables that have been placed:
🏈Seahawks win & Giants 1H +1.5 ($5,765 parlay to collect $56,680)
🏈49ers -9.5 ($30,000 to collect $57,272)
🏈Seahawks +9.5 ($20,000 to collect $38,181)
— Station Casinos Sports Betting (@STNSportsApp) January 14, 2023
1:18 p.m.: The latest from BetMGM:
Odds and insights for the Seahawks and the Niners 👇 pic.twitter.com/qd54U6njvs
— BetMGM 🦁 (@BetMGM) January 14, 2023
Most bet player props Seahawks-49ers at @BetMGM
CMC over 78.5 rushing yards (-115)
Eli Mitchell over 39.5 rushing yards (-115)
George Kittle over 44.5 receiving yards (-135)
Geno Smith under 226.5 passing yards (-115)
Brock Purdy under 218.5 passing yards (-110)
— John Ewing 🦁 (@johnewing) January 14, 2023
1:15 p.m.: Big bets from Caesars Sportsbook:
A NV bettor placed a $167,958.35 parlay on the 49ers (-500 ML) and Chargers (-145 ML) both winning today to win $172,591.70.
Is this going to cash? pic.twitter.com/UhyYbGcgN4
— Caesars Sportsbook (@CaesarsSports) January 14, 2023
SEAHAWKS TO PULL OFF THE UPSET?!
This morning, a Nevada bettor put $50K on the Seahawks ML (+420) 😱
Potential win: $210,000 pic.twitter.com/V5zUczRtMo
— Caesars Sportsbook (@CaesarsSports) January 14, 2023
1:05 p.m.: Here is today’s schedule:
— Seahawks (+400) at 49ers (-9½, 42, -500), 1:30 p.m.
— Chargers (-2½, 47, -145) at Jaguars (+125), 5:20 p.m.
1 p.m.: Here are some of the props we’ll be tracking today for the Seahawks-49ers game:
Team totals: Seahawks 15½, 49ers 25½ (over -120).
Alternate point spreads: Seahawks +3½ (+230), +17½ (-300); 49ers -3½ (-270), -17½ (+250).
General props: First score will be a touchdown (yes -150/no +130); largest lead 14½ points (over -120); longest TD 37½ yards; will there be a made field goal in the first quarter (yes even/no -120); will the game go to overtime (yes +1,200/no -3,000); will there be a defensive or special teams TD (yes +270/no -330); will there be a successful 2-point conversion (yes +400/no -500); will both teams make 33-yard or longer field goals (yes +110/no -130); will there be a lead change in the fourth quarter (yes +375/no -450); will either team score three straight times (yes -220/no +190); will there be a score in the final two minutes of the first half (yes -280/no +240); will the game be tied again after 0-0 (yes +150/no -170).
Seahawks props: Geno Smith 20½ completions (over -120), 32½ attempts, 217½ passing yards, longest completion 34½ yards, 1½ TD passes (under -200), will throw an interception (yes -155/no +135); Kenneth Walker III 56½ rushing yards, will score a TD (yes +170/no -190); D.K. Metcalf 55½ receiving yards, will score a TD (yes +270/no -330); Tyler Lockett 60½ receiving yards; Jason Myers 5½ kicking points.
49ers props: Brock Purdy 18 completions (over -120), 27½ attempts (under -120), 215½ passing yards, longest completion 35½ yards, 1½ TD passes (over -115), will throw an interception (yes +105/no -125); Christian McCaffrey 117½ rushing+receiving yards, will score a TD (yes -175/no +155); Deebo Samuel 59½ rushing+receiving yards; Brandon Aiyuk 42½ receiving yards; George Kittle 49½ receiving yards; Robbie Gould 7½ kicking points (under -120).
Contact David Schoen at dschoen@reviewjournal.com or 702-387-5203. Follow @DavidSchoenLVRJ on Twitter.