Jon Rahm among best bets for PGA Tour’s Players Championship

Recreational golfers everywhere can relate to Jon Rahm, the world’s No. 1 player, after he missed a 10-inch putt in last week’s Arnold Palmer Invitational.

The missed gimme putt didn’t stop oddsmakers from installing Rahm as the clear favorite to win the Players Championship, which tees off Thursday at TPC Sawgrass in Ponte Vedra Beach, Florida.

Handicapper Wes Reynolds, co-host of VSiN’s “Long Shots” golf betting show, and Westgate SuperBook oddsmaker Jeff Sherman like Rahm as one of their best bets to win golf’s unofficial fifth major.

Rahm opened as high as 14-1 and is still 12-1 at BetMGM and Caesars Sportsbook.

“He’s been in single digits in his last few tournaments,” Sherman said. “When he opened at 14-1, that seemed like an overadjustment on him in relation to everybody else.”

Reynolds noted that Rahm has won twice on Pete Dye designs and is a fan of Dye layouts.

“Rahm continues to be one of the world’s best off the tee, but posted his best approach numbers since August last week at Bay Hill,” he said. “The putter let him down from being in contention, but putting has the most variance of anything, so he can clearly turn it around here at Sawgrass, where he was the 54-hole leader three years ago and finished tied for ninth last year.”

Sherman also took Rahm (-150) in a matchup over Collin Morikawa.

Here are Sherman’s other best bets (with comments):

Hideki Matsuyama, 30-1

“He’s just been solid this year. It feels like it’s not going to be too much for him to overcome to get a win based on the way he’s been playing.”

Matthew Fitzpatrick, 39-1

“He’s running fantastic. His last three tournaments on the PGA Tour have all been top-10 finishes, and he finished ninth here last year.”

Billy Horschel, 50-1

Joaquin Niemann, 54-1

Sherman got Niemann at 70-1, and Horschel at 80-1. “The prices were very inviting on them with the way they’re playing. Niemann is coming off a recent win, and Horschel was in contention last week and always plays well in Florida.”

Here are Reynolds’ other best bets:

Daniel Berger, 28-1

“Berger is looking for redemption from two weeks ago at the Honda Classic. He led by six heading to the 18th on Saturday, but carded a bogey on 18 and then faltered down the stretch Sunday in tough conditions to finish fourth. He has two top-10 finishes here.”

Brooks Koepka, 40-1

“Koepka has drifted down enough in the market to make this an attractive price. He is the joint course record holder at TPC Sawgrass with a 63.”

Shane Lowry, 42-1

“Lowry, like Berger, posted his best-ever Players finish last year with an eighth. The weather is expected to play a factor over the weekend, and the Irishman is one of the world’s best playing under inclement conditions.”

Sungjae Im, 44-1

“Im has past success in the Sunshine State with a victory at the 2020 Honda Classic and top-four finishes at the Arnold Palmer Invitational and the Valspar Championship.”

Gary Woodland, 80-1

“Woodland looked like he was going to win at Bay Hill last week with an eagle at 16, but promptly gave it back with a double bogey at 17 and tied for fifth.”

Alex Noren, 90-1

“Noren has finished in the top six in two of his last three events with a tie for sixth in Phoenix and a tie for fifth at the Honda Classic.”

Contact reporter Todd Dewey at tdewey@reviewjournal.com. Follow @tdewey33 on Twitter.