Handicapper warns: Don’t bet against Nick Saban, Alabama

Normally, handicapper Paul Stone dives deep into statistics when breaking down a matchup.

He’s not doing that for Monday’s College Football Playoff title game between Alabama and Georgia in Indianapolis.

“It’s more of a less sophisticated approach,” Stone said. “It’s Alabama. It’s the national championship game. It’s Nick Saban, one of the greatest coaches of all time.”

Stone is backing the Crimson Tide as underdogs. He played Alabama +3, but said he would still play a half-unit on the Tide at +2½ and put the other half on the money line, widely available at +120 in Las Vegas. (Wynn Las Vegas had +125 on Saturday afternoon.)

The total is 52½.

Alabama is an underdog to Georgia for the second time this season. In the Southeastern Conference title game Dec. 4, the Crimson Tide rolled to a 41-24 victory as 6½-point underdogs.

The Bulldogs are still favored for the rematch, but the line has been adjusted four points after the decisive Alabama victory.

The line was at Georgia -3 on Friday before dipping to 2½. Westgate SuperBook sportsbook director John Murray said “very sharp guys” took Alabama +3 to force the line move across the market.

“Now have seen sharp money on both sides,” Murray said via text message. “Public heavy on Alabama money line. Also took sharp action over 52. … Expecting the most heavily bet college football game ever for the SuperBook.”

The Westgate is offering a rarely seen 8-cent line (-104 for spread bets instead of -110) and a 10-cent money line (Georgia -130/Alabama +120). That will continue until kickoff, Murray said.

Red Rock Resort sportsbook director Chuck Esposito also said the public was heavily backing Alabama, especially on the money line. He said he likes Georgia to get revenge Monday.

“The ’Dawgs will be barking, but it won’t be the underdogs,” Esposito said.

Despite Alabama’s earlier blowout victory, Stone said he understands the case for Georgia. The Bulldogs are favored for a reason.

“Georgia’s body of work for its first 12 games compared to Alabama’s first 12 games is far superior,” he said.

Georgia did not allow an opponent to score more than 17 points in a game all season until playing Alabama, then the Bulldogs dominated Michigan 34-11 in the CFP semifinals.

Alabama did not look like a typically dominant Crimson Tide squad for most of the season. Alabama lost to Texas A&M 41-38 and struggled in wins over Florida (31-29), Louisiana State (20-14), Arkansas (42-35) and Auburn (24-22).

However, facing elimination with a loss to Georgia in the SEC title game, the Crimson Tide played by far their best game of the season, with quarterback Bryce Young locking up the Heisman Trophy by throwing for 421 yards and three touchdowns and rushing for 40 yards and another score.

Alabama then eased past Cincinnati 27-6 in the CFP semifinals, relying mostly on its defense and running game against the smaller Bearcats.

Stone said he also thinks Alabama has a psychological edge. Saban is 4-0 against Georgia coach Kirby Smart, including a 26-23 overtime victory in the 2017 title game.

“Alabama might be inside Georgia’s head a little bit,” Stone said. “If Alabama gets ahead early, Georgia has to think, ‘Here we go again.’”

Contact Jim Barnes at jbarnes@reviewjournal.com or 702-383-0277. Follow @JimBarnesLV on Twitter.