Florida could have value on inflated line against Alabama

A few weeks ago, Florida ranged between +11 and +13 in Southeastern Conference championship game lookahead lines.

Florida lost 37-34 to Louisiana State last week mostly due to incredible misfortune.

ESPN’s Bill Connelly created a stat called win expectancy, which uses statistics to retroactively measure the percentage of time a team would win a game. The Gators had a 99.4 percent win expectancy against LSU, which was by far the largest number of any FBS team in a loss this season.

That’s not considering that Florida played without tight end Kyle Pitts, one of the best skill players in the country who coach Dan Mullen said had a great week of practice for Saturday’s showdown against Alabama.

Alabama has covered the spread in seven consecutive games since a 63-48 win at Mississippi. The Crimson Tide defense has climbed the ranks in advanced metrics by feasting on Mississippi State, Kentucky and Arkansas. The trio scored a combined six points against Alabama.

The Tide offense won’t have an issue scoring. Florida should focus on eliminating big plays and testing Mac Jones’ patience. The Tide quarterback can sometimes force throws downfield to his athletic receivers in coverage.

I don’t see a reason to inflate the number four-plus points based on last week. Florida’s offense will score enough on Alabama to cover. Take the Gators +17½.

Four more plays (home team in CAPS):

Tulsa (+15) over CINCINNATI: The Golden Hurricane are 8-2 ATS as underdogs the past two seasons, including outright wins as 16½- and 20½-point underdogs. Cincinnati hasn’t faced a defense ranked in the SP+ top 40. Tulsa sits at No. 26. Expect the Tulsa defense to key on Desmond Ridder, who has turned into a good dual-threat quarterback. The rest of Cincinnati’s offense isn’t going to intimidate a team like Tulsa, which held Oklahoma State to 16, Central Florida to 26 and Southern Methodist to 24. The Bearcats’ defense should be even more dominant. But this is too many points for a cold, potentially windy defensive struggle.

ARMY (+2½) over Air Force: The wrong team is favored. The Falcons dominated Navy, New Mexico and Utah State, which are a combined 6-17. Air Force also lost to the only two teams it has played with a winning record. Army is 8-2 with losses at Cincinnati and at Tulane. Army’s defense is sixth in the country in points per possession allowed. With a total in the 30s and a strong record of unders when service academies play, give me the home underdog.

Arizona State (-7) over OREGON STATE: Arizona State ranks in the top 25 in offensive and defensive points per possession. The Sun Devils rank 30th in the 247Sports team talent composite compared to 56th for the Beavers. Oregon State will be able to move the chains by running the ball. But this is the best defense the Beavers have faced all season. The bigger mismatch should be the Sun Devils offense against a Beavers defense that’s 118th in success rate allowed and 93rd in points per possession allowed.

Oklahoma (-5½) over Iowa State: Matt Campbell has been impressive against the Sooners, covering the past five meetings with two outright wins. That includes a 37-30 home victory on Oct. 3. However, this is the first time that the Cyclones have been an underdog of less than a touchdown. In the first meeting, Oklahoma couldn’t stop Breece Hall, loaded the box and gave up some explosive passes. But the Sooners are playing better defense and may not need to commit as many bodies to stopping Hall.

Last week: 3-1

Season: 31-36

Christopher Smith of AL.com and BetOnline is providing college football analysis for the Las Vegas Review-Journal. Follow @cfblocksmith on Twitter.