Double-digit underdog Ole Miss could threaten Missouri

Missouri is a curious team.

Clemson transfer quarterback Kelly Bryant has kept the offense moving, and the defense has been outstanding. The Tigers (4-1) lost a fluke game to Wyoming and yet rank 10th in SP+ entering Saturday’s home game against Mississippi.

However, there are a few data points that models such as SP+ might not see:

— Cale Garrett, a potential All-Southeastern Conference linebacker and probably the team’s best player, suffered a season-ending pectoral tendon injury.

— Bryant called himself “90 percent” after a knee sprain he suffered last weekend. His legs are a big part of Missouri’s offense.

— Missouri has scored 41 nonoffensive points in five games. If you don’t account for that, the Tigers average 37 points per game. If you do, they average 28.8.

— Mississippi QB John Rhys Plumlee is making his third start. He’s an athletic ball of energy, just what you would expect from a Rich Rodriguez quarterback. He rushed for 109 yards against Alabama and 165 against Vanderbilt.

I played under 57 on this game earlier in the week, and I’ll take Ole Miss plus 12½.

Four more plays (home team in CAPS):

Maryland (-3½) over PURDUE: Injuries have decimated a Boilermakers team that I thought might be a fringe bowl team. Maryland is without starting quarterback Josh Jackson, but I don’t think that will matter. The Terrapins are tied for sixth in the country with 15 running plays of at least 20 yards. Purdue is missing both its starting defensive tackles and preseason All-Big Ten linebacker Markus Bailey. Don’t expect Purdue’s offense to keep up, as the Boilermakers are without QB Elijah Sindelar and probably receiver-kick returner Rondale Moore.

South Carolina (+23) over GEORGIA: The Bulldogs are 124th in seconds per play and 123rd in plays per game. Their games average fewer than 22 possessions. It’s difficult to win by at least four scores against a competent Power Five opponent when your team has the ball only 10 or 11 times. South Carolina QB Ryan Hilinski (elbow) is healthier off a bye.

North Texas (+3) over SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI: Before the season, I thought the Golden Eagles were one of the better Group of Five teams. I viewed Southern Miss not as a New Year’s Six contender but as a potential C-USA title team. I wasn’t counting on the defense to fall from 27th to 95th in SP+. Southern Miss has played two pass-first offenses, Troy and Alabama, and gave up a combined 91 points and 1,004 yards. North Texas QB Mason Fine has thrown for 9,136 yards since the start of 2017.

Southern California (+10½) over NOTRE DAME: The return of QB Kedon Slovis is significant for a Trojans team that is underrated in the market in part because of the narrative surrounding coach Clay Helton. I’m hoping Helton and offensive coordinator Graham Harrell allow Slovis to throw more on early downs, when he’s had more success than in obvious passing situations. Notre Dame’s pass defense has posted impressive numbers, especially in preventing long plays, and I expect the Fighting Irish safeties to play deep. USC’s receivers will have chances to win matchups on high-percentage throws. Notre Dame’s defense will get tested in a different way than it did against Louisville, Georgia and Virginia. USC’s defense has to avoid explosive plays from RB Jafar Armstrong, who is returning from injury.

Last week: 5-0

Season: 17-11-2

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Christopher Smith of AL.com, NOLA.com and MyBookie is providing college football analysis for the Las Vegas Review-Journal. Follow @cfblocksmith on Twitter.