Conference championship week best bets

Alabama was a 12-point favorite over Florida at Circa in the Southeastern Conference football title game before the Gators’ stunning loss last week to Louisiana State.

The Crimson Tide are now consensus 17½-point favorites over Florida in Saturday’s game. The line move hasn’t stopped the betting public from jumping all over Alabama in what William Hill sportsbook director Nick Bogdanovich said “could be an NFL-sized decision.”

“We’re going to need Florida for a wheelbarrow full of money,” he said. “No one’s going to want to bet Florida after last week, and Alabama can score 70 if they want.”

Alabama is riding a 7-0 cover streak and has steamrolled its past five opponents by a combined score of 253-36.

“I’m not sure why anyone would want to step in front of Alabama right now,” Bogdanovich said. “Florida hasn’t shown they can stop anyone.”

Florida (+17½) over Alabama

That said, handicapper Dana Lane recommends a play on the Gators. Lane went 41-27-2 ATS (60.3 percent) this season to repeat as the Review-Journal College Challenge champion. His two-year record in the contest is 83-60-2 (58 percent).

“The Gators offense is one of the best in the country, while their defense, although not impressive statistically, is in some ways a product of their ability to score quickly,” said Lane (@DanaLaneSports). “I’m more than happy to take 17½ points with a team that can easily match Alabama score for score with a defense that is better than people think.”

Clemson is -10½ over Notre Dame in the Atlantic Coast Conference championship game, a rematch of the 47-40 double-overtime game won by the Fighting Irish on Nov. 7 in South Bend, Indiana.

Eric Parkila (@ParkilaSports) and Paul Stone (@PaulStoneSports) have best bets on the side and total. Parkila went 5-0 last week to finish a point behind Lane in the RJ Challenge at 40-28-2 (58.8 percent). Stone was the 2018 champ, took second last year and third this season. His three-year RJ Challenge record is 117-90-3 (56.5 percent)

Notre Dame (+10½) over Clemson

The Tigers were without standout quarterback Trevor Lawrence and three defensive starters in the loss at Notre Dame. But Stone still likes the Irish plus the double digits, noting that they’re 8-4 ATS in their last 12 games as underdogs.

“Notre Dame knows it can beat Clemson because it has,” Stone said. “Ian Book has blossomed as a senior, is a gamer, and can hurt teams with his arm and his feet. I think the Irish put up a fight and keep it within single digits.”

Westgate vice president of risk Ed Salmons also leans to Notre Dame.

“Notre Dame is better than people think and has a lot to prove with Lawrence in there this game,” he said. “They need a lot of things to happen to win. But I think they can keep the game competitive and stay within the number.”

Notre Dame-Clemson Under 60

Parlika expects Lawrence to help keep this game under the total.

“Clemson will have Lawrence this time around, and his ability to make plays in the run game will make this matchup a little lower scoring than the first,” Parkila said. “Clemson gets the win, but it stays under the total.”

Oklahoma (-5½) over Iowa State

In the Big 12 title game, Salmons likes the Sooners, who were as low as -5 at BetMGM on Friday after they closed as 8-point favorites in a 37-30 loss at Iowa State in October. Oklahoma has allowed an average of 15.6 points in its last five games.

“I had the line 6½, 7. Oklahoma -5 is a decent bet. That line seems cheap,” Salmons said. “Oklahoma has played really good defense this year.”

In the Big Ten championship game, Westgate sportsbook director John Murray said Ohio State has dropped from -20½ to -18½ over Northwestern because of “COVID rumors.”

Contact reporter Todd Dewey at tdewey@reviewjournal.com. Follow @tdewey33 on Twitter.