College football forecast: Take the points with Utah State

Conventional wisdom says this will be a disaster considering my credentials as a college football handicapper are sorely lacking.

Math was never a strength of mine. A handful of years ago, the line moved after I bet against Wisconsin, and I actually thought that wager had something to do with it.

What a donkey.

Publishing my picks could end up being more awkward than making eye contact with a panhandler on the freeway exit during a red light.

And yet, here we are, harboring dreams of a decent showing. Sort of like Utah State, which is a 42-point underdog at the Westgate Superbook against Alabama on Saturday.

The Aggies are hoping to keep the score respectable against the nation’s top-ranked team after failing to cover as 24½-point home favorites in their opener against Connecticut.

But let’s be honest. Utah State wasn’t all that interested in last week’s game and spent the entire offseason focused on this matchup against the host Crimson Tide.

In addition, it’s worth backing Aggies coach Blake Anderson, whose teams have covered in nine of his past 11 games as a underdog dating to his time at Arkansas State.

Alabama isn’t known to run up the score on nonconference opponents and, more significantly, will be looking ahead to next week’s game at Texas. According to @Bet_Labs, favorites of 30 or more points playing their opener have gone 35-49 ATS in the past five seasons.

That’s enough to convince a square like me. Take the Aggies and the points.

Here are four more plays for Saturday:

Notre Dame-Ohio State O59: The Buckeyes have the nation’s top offense and will be tough for Notre Dame to contain. But this is more about Ohio State’s porous defense, which allowed 87 points in its final two games last season. New defensive coordinator Jim Knowles must fix a unit that was vulnerable to strong rushing attacks and couldn’t get off the field on third down. The Irish should have enough on offense with tight Michael Mayer and a talented line to keep pace.

Rutgers-Boston College U48: This just feels like a 3-yards-and-a-cloud-of-rubber-pellets kind of matchup that should be shown on TV in black and white. Nine of Boston College’s 12 games stayed under the total in 2021. The only reason for pause is the Eagles offense should improve with the return of quarterback Phil Jurkovec.

North Texas +11 over Southern Methodist: The Mean Green have been a covering machine lately, winning six straight against the spread in the regular season. There’s probably a bit of recency bias at work with this pick after last week’s victory. North Texas failed to cover in six of its past seven meetings with SMU.

Cincinnati-Arkansas U52: The Bearcats lost several key players to the NFL but return an experienced defensive line and secondary. That should be enough to slow the Razorbacks’ ground game, which was tops among Power Five teams last season. If Cincinnati goes with Ben Bryant at quarterback, don’t expect much in the way of offense.

Last week: 0-0

Season: 0-0

Contact David Schoen at dschoen@reviewjournal.com or 702-387-5203. Follow @DavidSchoenLVRJ on Twitter.