College football forecast: Back underdog Kansas on road

One of college football’s oldest cliches is that the most improvement takes place between the first and second games.

Let’s hope that rings true here after a dumpster-fire showing in Week 1.

Not only did four of the five picks crash and burn, but they weren’t really close, either. That’s what happens when you back mediocre and bad teams to cover. Lesson learned.

For example, Hawaii is a stay-away as a 51½-point underdog at Michigan on Saturday, despite what the data indicates.

According to ESPN, this is the ninth game with a spread of 50 points or more between FBS teams since 2000 and favorites are 2-6 against the spread. They’re 4-13 ATS going back to 1990.

But the Rainbow Warriors can’t be trusted in this spot. Too many other variables involved with time changes and such.

Instead, it’s time to jump on Kansas while there’s still a tiny bit of value remaining.

The Jayhawks are getting 13½ points at West Virginia and might be starting to turn the corner under second-year coach Lance Leipold, having covered four straight. Kansas is 1-8 straight up in its past nine against the Mountaineers, including eight straight losses, but is 6-2-1 ATS in that stretch.

Meanwhile, West Virginia hasn’t lost straight up to the Jayhawks in five home games since 2012 and the closest margin of victory was 16 points.

Maybe that lesson about backing bad teams didn’t sink in after all.

Here are four more plays for Saturday:

Central Michigan -4½ over South Alabama: The Chippewas got the backdoor cover as 20½-point underdogs at Oklahoma State in the opener and are 23-11 ATS under coach Jim McElwain, who is in his fourth season. This appears to be a tough road spot for the Jaguars. Central Michigan has won three consecutive home openers SU.

Old Dominion-East Carolina U51: That was a brutal ending for East Carolina money-line bettors last week with two missed kicks late in the fourth quarter to fall short. The under trend is tough to pass up here. Old Dominion is on a 9-5 under streak. The Pirates are on an under streak as well, with six of the past eight staying under the total.

Baylor +3 over Brigham Young: At the risk of being a total square, this number seems suspicious. Would this game be a pick ‘em on a neutral field? Would Baylor be a 3-point favorite at home? It has to be a trap. Or maybe it’s the altitude. Call me a sucker, but I’ll take the Bears and the points.

Miami -25 over Southern Mississippi: After watching more Atlantic Coast Conference action in two weeks than the past two years combined, it looks like Miami could be the top team in the conference. The Hurricanes are 6-2 ATS in their past eight and are facing a Southern Miss team that hasn’t covered in 17 of its past 26 outings.

■ Last week: 1-4

■ Season: 1-4

Contact David Schoen at dschoen@reviewjournal.com or 702-387-5203. Follow @DavidSchoenLVRJ on Twitter.