College football best bets: Fade feel-good Colorado team

A lot of sharp bettors had Colorado on a list of “bet against” teams before the season.

Mark Dantonio’s resignation as Michigan State coach, followed by an intense courtship between Michigan State and then-Colorado coach Mel Tucker, led to a late February hiring in Boulder.

Colorado hired Karl Dorrell, an NFL receivers coach with Pac-12 ties, after Tucker took the Spartans job. Dorrell compiled a winning record as UCLA coach from 2003 to 2007. But the coronavirus pandemic started disrupting sports soon after Colorado hired Dorrell, who had not worked for a college program in 13 years.

At 4-0, the Buffaloes (4-0 ATS) are a tremendous story. But Colorado has benefited from a poor schedule, beating teams ranked Nos. 40, 57, 66 and 102 in ESPN’s SP+ rankings.

Utah, decimated by COVID-19 in a loss to Southern California and unlucky in a defeat at Washington, is 21st in those rankings. Colorado has scored only 20 and 24 points in its last two wins. Despite losing so much talent, the Utes’ defense is good at preventing efficiency.

The market has overreacted to a relatively small sample size for Utah and Colorado. Throw in a 10 a.m. kickoff in Boulder and the wrong team is favored. Take Utah +2½.

Four more plays (home team in CAPS):

Louisiana State (+23½) over FLORIDA: The headlines in Baton Rouge tell of a doomsday after a magical 2019 season. Things are going as poorly as anyone could have imagined for LSU less than one year after Joe Burrow led an extremely talented team to a national championship. But I made this line Florida -18. Even if the Gators dominate, they should be looking toward next week’s Southeastern Conference title game against Alabama and pulling their starters in the second half. LSU’s progress has been two steps forward, 1½ steps back since a season-opening loss to Mississippi State. But despite some blowout losses, the Tigers are playing slightly better football, especially on defense.

WASHINGTON STATE (+2½) over California: Before Cal’s 21-17 victory over Oregon last week, the Bears looked like a strong candidate for a winless season. Washington State gave up four first-quarter touchdowns — including on drives of 4, 31 and 34 yards — in a deceivingly bad loss to USC. Cal is 119th in passing success rate allowed and doesn’t have the offense to fully exploit the Cougars.

Wisconsin (-1½) over IOWA: According to Pro Football Focus, Wisconsin has the fifth-best rush defense in the country, grading behind only Clemson among Power 5 programs. Iowa quarterback Spencer Petras ranks ahead of only Northwestern’s Peyton Ramsey in quarterback rating among Big Ten starters. This is a matchup of similar teams, but the Badgers are slightly better at executing this style of play. Wisconsin’s defense, rush offense and short passing game will be enough to win and cover.

Southern Cal (-2½) over UCLA: The Bruins have played surprisingly well against the pass, ranking 10th in sack rate and 24th in passing success rate allowed. But UCLA opponents Cal and Arizona rank in the triple digits in passing success rate and explosiveness, and Arizona State ranks 116th in passing success rate. USC is 26th in that stat.

Last week: 1-4

Season: 28-35

Christopher Smith of AL.com and BetOnline is providing college football analysis for the Las Vegas Review-Journal. Follow @cfblocksmith on Twitter.