Breaking down Week 12 of the NFL season
Dolphins (2-8) at Browns (4-6)
Time: 10 a.m.
Line/total: Browns -10½, 46
Analysis: Cleveland has a huge edge running the ball, averaging 122 rushing yards to Miami’s 60. With Miami having the second-worst rushing defense (148 yards per game), Cleveland RBs Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt should have success, enabling the Browns to control the clock and force Miami to play from behind. Cleveland’s pass defense ranks No. 6, allowing 217 yards per game.
By the numbers: Cleveland has won the first two games of this three-game homestand. … After allowing 163 points in the first four games, the Dolphins have allowed 142 in their last six.
Pick: Browns 29, Dolphins 14
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Broncos (3-7) at Bills (7-3)
Time: 10 a.m.
Line/total: Bills -4, 37
Analysis: Both offenses are better at running than passing, and each excels at pass defense. Buffalo QB Josh Allen has performed better than his Broncos counterpart, Brandon Allen. Denver has faced the much tougher schedule — their foes are 49-44 against the rest of the league. Buffalo’s foes are 30-60. Four of Denver’s seven losses have been by four or fewer points.
By the numbers: The Bills and Broncos are two of six teams allowing fewer than 10.35 yards per pass completion.
Pick: Bills 19, Broncos 13
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Steelers (5-5) at Bengals (0-10)
Time: 10 a.m.
Line/total: Steelers -6, 38
Analysis: This is a rematch from Week 4 when the Steelers won 27-3 and held the Bengals to a season-low 175 yards. Cincinnati has scored 17 or fewer points in eight of 10 games. Last week’s 17 points allowed to Oakland was the Bengals’ best defensive effort. QB Ryan Finley has been held to 150 and 73 net yards in his two starts.
By the numbers: The Bengals are last in yards per play differential, allowing 1.9 more per play than they gain. … Cincinnati allows a league-worst 13.4 yards per pass completion.
Pick: Steelers 23, Bengals 13
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Giants (2-8) at Bears (4-6)
Time: 10 a.m.
Line/total: Bears -6, 40
Analysis: Only Tampa Bay (25) has turned the ball over more than the Giants (24). New York has the better offense and the Bears the better defense, and those edges offset as both have been outgained by 60 yards per game. The Bears have lost only 10 turnovers this season.
By the numbers: Three of the Bears’ four wins have been by seven or more points. … Of the Giants’ eight losses, six have been by seven or more points, including five by 14 or more.
Pick: Bears 27, Giants 13
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Raiders (6-4) at Jets (3-7)
Time: 10 a.m.
Line/total: Raiders -3, 46½
Analysis: The Raiders travel to the East Coast after three consecutive home wins. The Jets have won two straight as underdogs, scoring a season-high 34 points in each game. The Jets’ ability to run and defend the run could be decisive. Their offense is tied for the second-weakest ground game, gaining 3.3 yards per rush, while the defense leads the league, allowing 3.0. The Jets have gotten solid QB play since Sam Darnold returned from his bout with mono.
By the numbers: In 11 meetings since 2002’s divisional realignment the Jets are 3-1 ATS against the Raiders at home.
Pick: Jets 24, Raiders 20
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Panthers (5-5) at Saints (8-2)
Time: 10 a.m.
Line/total: Saints -10, 46
Analysis: Both teams lost home games to Atlanta in the past two weeks. The overall stats were quite similar with the major difference being Carolina was minus-4 in turnovers in its 29-3 loss to the Falcons and the Saints were plus-1 in their 26-9 loss. Though mostly held in check in five career games against New Orleans, RB Christian McCaffrey’s versatility gives the Panthers a legitimate threat.
By the numbers: Seven of each team’s 10 games have been against common foes, and the stats are close. The Saints are 5-2 straight up and the Panthers 4-3. … Both are 4-3 ATS in those games.
Pick: Saints 27, Panthers 20
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Buccaneers (3-7) at Falcons (3-7)
Time: 10 a.m.
Line/total: Falcons -3½, 52
Analysis: After allowing 20 or more points in each of its first eight games — and at least 24 in seven of them — Atlanta allowed nine and three points in divisional road wins at New Orleans and Carolina. Tampa Bay is 1-6 straight up and 0-7 ATS in its last seven games. The Buccaneers have allowed 27 or more points in all but one game.
By the numbers: The Falcons are 7-3 to the under, and Tampa Bay is 8-2 to the over. … Tampa Bay has lost a league-high 25 turnovers. … Atlanta ranks next-to-last in forcing eight turnovers, with four of them coming last week.
Pick: Falcons 34, Buccaneers 20
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Lions (3-6-1) at Redskins (1-9)
Time: 10 a.m.
Line/total: Lions -3½, 41
Analysis: Washington would be winless but for a botched 2-point conversion attempt by Miami in the Redskins’ 17-16 win. All but one of Detroit’s losses have been by eight or fewer points. Washington has allowed an average of 115 more total yards than they gain. Both offenses struggle to run the football, and both defenses are in the bottom third of the NFL defending the run.
By the numbers: Detroit has held only one opponent to fewer than 20 points. … The Redskins held three straight foes to under 20 before losses at Buffalo and to the Jets.
Pick: Redskins 21, Lions 20
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Seahawks (8-2) at Eagles (5-5)
Time: 10 a.m.
Line/total: Eagles -1, 47½
Analysis: Seattle is 5-0 straight up on the road (4-1 ATS). This is a matchup of strength vs. strength (Seattle offense vs. Philadelphia defense) and weakness vs. weakness (Eagles offense vs Seahawks defense). It’s hard to argue against Seattle QB Russell Wilson, and the early money came in on Seattle. The teams’ strength of schedules are almost identical.
By the numbers: Seattle’s eight wins have been by an average of 5.1 points, the lowest margin of any team with more than three wins. … Philadelphia’s five wins have been by an average margin of 12.6.
Pick: Eagles 27, Seahawks 17
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Jaguars (4-6) at Titans (5-5)
Time: 1:05 p.m.
Line/total: Titans -3½, 41½
Analysis: Both teams have average rushing offenses, but the Titans have been much better defending the run. Jacksonville allows the most yards per rush attempt in the league (5.3) and the Titans are in the top 10, allowing 4.0. The last four meetings have been low scoring, producing 15 to 39 points.
By the numbers: The Jaguars have been inefficient, ranking No. 12 in total offense but No. 26 in average points scored. … Tennessee ranks No. 18 in total defense but No. 7 in average points allowed.
Pick: Tennessee 21-13
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Cowboys (6-4) at Patriots (9-1)
Time: 1:25 p.m.
Line/total: Patriots -6, 44½
Analysis: The Patriots will be tested by a Cowboys offense ranking first in total yards per game, seventh in rushing yards and first in passing yards. New England has forced a league-high 28 turnovers. The Patriots struggle to run the football, averaging 91 yards. Still, the Patriots excel at home and will be a popular teaser play this week. Dallas is an underdog for the first time this season.
By the numbers: Dallas has the NFL’s best yards per play differential of plus 1.5, gaining a league-high 6.7 yards per play while allowing 5.2. … The Patriots are No. 3 in yards per play differential at plus 0.9. … The Cowboys have the only offense that ranks in the top 10 in rushing and passing.
Pick: Patriots 24, Cowboys 20
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Packers (8-2) at 49ers (9-1)
Time: 5:20 p.m.
Line/total: 49ers -3½, 47½
Analysis: The 49ers have played the weaker schedule. Their foes are 37-53 in games against the rest of the league, while Green Bay’s opponents are 49-43. The 49ers have multiple key injuries, and the Packers are getting healthy. The Packers have lost seven turnovers, 10 fewer than San Francisco. The key might be how much success Packers QB Aaron Rodgers has with his No. 11 passing offense against the NFL’s leading pass defense that has allowed 142 passing yards per game.
By the numbers: Green Bay is 2-0 straight up and ATS as an underdog.
Pick: Packers 27, 49ers 24
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Monday
Ravens (8-2) at Rams (6-4)
Time: 5:15 p.m.
Line/total: Ravens -3, 46½
Analysis: After scoring 30 or more points 13 times in 19 games last season, the Rams’ offense has been inept. They haven’t relied on the running game as much this season, and QB Jared Goff has struggled. The defense remains stout, allowing 4.8 yards per play, third best in the league. Baltimore is a legitimate Super Bowl contender, as QB Lamar Jackson continues to improve and impress with his legs and arm.
By the numbers: Baltimore leads the NFL averaging 34.1 points. … The Ravens also lead the NFL in averaging 204 rushing yards.
Pick: Ravens 28, Rams 23
More Betting: Follow at reviewjournal.com/betting
— Andy Iskoe, thelogicalapproach.com
