Bookmakers debate Alabama’s playoff chances

Does Alabama still have a chance to make the College Football Playoff after losing star quarterback Tua Tagovailoa? Well, it depends who you ask.

In a survey of seven Las Vegas sportsbooks, the Crimson Tide were listed Monday as low as 10-1 to win the national title and as high as 25-1.

“They’ve got a real nice shot,” William Hill sportsbook director Nick Bogdanovich said.

He pointed out that backup quarterback Mac Jones has played very well in his limited time so far and should keep the Tide offense humming.

“He’s an Alabama recruit,” Bogdanovich said. “… Alabama doesn’t recruit bums.”

The playoff picture seems to be growing clearer. Barring an unlikely upset, Louisiana State, Ohio State and Clemson appear to be locks. If Georgia defeats LSU in the SEC title game, convential wisdom holds that both teams would advance to the playoff, with LSU’s resume as the next-best one-loss team beating anyone else’s.

If LSU beats Georgia, giving the Bulldogs their second loss to knock them out of the playoff, the decision seems likely to come down to an 11-1 Alabama team that didn’t win its SEC division versus a one-loss conference champion from the Pac-12 (Oregon or Utah), or perhaps a one-loss champion from the Big 12 (Oklahoma or Baylor).

Bogdanovich thinks Alabama gets the edge in that scenario.

“I don’t think there’s a person on Earth who thinks Oregon or Utah is going to knock out Alabama,” he said. “The Pac-12 doesn’t get a lot of respect.”

William Hill has Oregon at 20-1 to win the title and Utah at 30-1. Some books have those odds reversed, giving the edge to the Utes. Oregon is as low as 15-1 at some books and as high as 40-1. Utah is as low as 15-1 and as high as 30-1.

Sunset Station sportsbook director Chuck Esposito said he thinks the Pac-12 team will end up in the playoff if LSU knocks out Georgia.

“Oregon’s in a really good spot,” he said. “A few weeks ago, (the Ducks) had probably a 25 percent chance. But it’s going to be awfully tough for Alabama now.”

He said Oregon’s case would be stronger than Utah’s because the Ducks’ loss came all the way back in the season opener against Auburn, in a game Oregon largely controlled until a Tigers TD pass in the final seconds.

At least some bettors have been willing to take a shot on Alabama to get back in the race.

Caesars Entertainment director of trading Jeff Davis said he reposted Alabama at 30-1 after the Tagovailoa injury and took enough nibbles to move it down to 25-1.

Looking ahead

The marquee college game of the week comes with a heavy price tag, as No. 2 Ohio State is anywhere from a 17½- to 19-point home favorite over No. 9 Penn State on Saturday.

“You don’t normally see a team of Penn State’s ilk getting 18 points,” Bogdanovich said.

Esposito said he thought the line would only go up, though, as bettors have seen Penn State lose to Minnesota and struggle to beat Michigan, while Ohio State continues to rout foe after foe.

Both bookmakers said they would make the Buckeyes the favorite over any other team, albeit only slightly over Clemson and LSU.

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Contact Jim Barnes at jbarnes@reviewjournal.com Follow @JimBarnesLV on Twitter.