Bills favored over Chiefs in Patrick Mahomes’ 1st road playoff game

Eight teams remain on the road to Super Bowl 58 at Allegiant Stadium.

The Eagles and Cowboys aren’t coming, and reigning NFL MVP Patrick Mahomes will have to win his first playoff game on the road to give the Chiefs a chance to retain their league title in Las Vegas.

The Bills opened as consensus 2½-point favorites over Kansas City in Sunday’s divisional round matchup at Buffalo. The Bills beat the Steelers 31-17 in Monday’s wild-card playoff game and covered as 10-point favorites.

The Bills, who will host the Chiefs in the postseason after their 2020 and 2021 seasons ended with playoff losses at Kansas City, opened as 3-point favorites at Circa Sports and Station Casinos.

“We went back and forth between 2½ and 3,” Red Rock Resort sportsbook director Chuck Esposito said. “I just think bettors are going to play the Bills.

“The Chiefs have been kind of a play-against this year and in the playoffs and in the Super Bowl last year. With this being a down offensive season for them and Mahomes’ first road game, I think you’ll see bettors play against the Chiefs.”

The Bills opened -2½ (-120) at the Westgate SuperBook, and the total opened at 46½ before dipping to 46.

“We took a little sharp action on the under,” SuperBook vice president Jay Kornegay said. “These two teams underperformed for most of the year. A lot of people, including myself, were expecting them to break out offensively, and they really haven’t done that.

“Even though the Bills had a decent game (Monday), it’s going to be a little different against the Chiefs defense. I would expect this game to go down to the wire.”

The 49ers, the NFC’s No. 1 seed and the +170 favorite at Caesars Sportsbook to win the Super Bowl, are 10-point home favorites over the Packers on Saturday. The total is 50½.

The Ravens, the AFC’s top seed and the +290 second choice to win the Super Bowl, are 9½-point home favorites over the Texans on Saturday. The total is 45½.

“A lot of people feel there’s Baltimore and San Francisco and then there’s everybody else,” Kornegay said. “But as we saw in the wild-card round, you just never know when someone lays an egg and they get upset.”

Besides the Bills, who have won six straight games, the Packers are the hottest team with four straight wins after Sunday’s 48-32 upset of the Cowboys as 7-point underdogs.

But Esposito expects the betting public to pound the 49ers, coming off a bye.

“You’re talking about a really young team that has to play its second consecutive game on the road against a well-rested team that everybody has as their Super Bowl favorite right now,” he said. “Historically, they back the team on the bye pretty heavily in this round.

“My guess is we’re going to be huge Packers fans when this game kicks off.”

Esposito also expects bettors to back the Ravens for the same reasons.

“I can see this game getting pushed to 10 as well,” he said. “I think we’ll be Texans fans.”

The Lions opened as consensus 6-point home favorites over the Buccaneers in the other divisional round matchup. The total is 48½.

Tampa Bay dominated Philadelphia in a 32-9 upset win Monday night as a 3-point home underdog. Detroit beat the Rams 24-23 on Sunday for its first playoff win in 32 years.

“Now they’re rewarded with another home game against the Bucs. They couldn’t ask for more than that,” Kornegay said. “Looking ahead, going to San Francisco won’t be a treat, but they have a really good shot at making the NFC championship. You’ve got to be excited for that city.”

Esposito also can see the Lions playing the Niners for a trip to the Super Bowl.

“The Niners would probably be about 7-point favorites over the Lions,” he said.

The Bills are the 5-1 third pick to win the Super Bowl, followed by the Chiefs at 7-1, the Lions at +850, and the Packers, Bucs and Texans at 30-1.

Contact reporter Todd Dewey at tdewey@reviewjournal.com. Follow @tdewey33 on X.