Betting experts break down UNLV-Boise State MW championship game

Before Barry Odom took over as UNLV football coach last year, the Rebels had only two winning seasons in 28 years, including 12 seasons of two wins or fewer.

Under Odom, UNLV has reeled off back-to-back winning seasons and is a win away from making the College Football Playoff.

Based on the point spread alone for Friday’s Mountain West title game at Boise State — which was a consensus 4-point favorite this week before creeping back up to -4½ on Thursday — longtime Las Vegas oddsmaker Ed Salmons likes the Rebels’ chances.

“The line says it all where UNLV has come in football,” said Salmons, the Westgate SuperBook vice president of risk. “Boise’s having one of the best years they’ve had in a long time and they’re only (4½)-point favorites over UNLV. Back in the day, they’d be a 28-point favorite over UNLV. It’s amazing.

“That line looks so short. It almost looks like they’re daring you to bet on Boise. So I think UNLV’s got a real shot at this thing.”

Sharp bettors at the Westgate took that dare Thursday, betting on the Broncos -4, which caused the line to shoot up to 5 at the SuperBook. Sharps had initially backed the Rebels in the game, driving the opening line down from 6½ to as low as 3½ before it settled at 4.

At Station Sports, 59 percent of the tickets are on Boise State (11-1, 6-6 against the spread) and 74 percent of the tickets on the total are on the over (57½).

The Broncos beat UNLV 44-20 in last year’s MW title game at Allegiant Stadium and also rallied past the Rebels there in a 29-24 win on Oct. 25.

Boise State is 141-16 (.898) at home since 2000 on its famous blue “Smurf Turf.”

“The early push was on UNLV, but we’re starting to see money on Boise. My guess is we’ll probably need UNLV when this game kicks,” Red Rock Resort sportsbook director Chuck Esposito said. “Just because Boise’s only loss came to Oregon and they beat UNLV once already, though I think UNLV’s a better team right now than they were at that point.”

The Broncos closed as 4-point favorites in their comeback win over UNLV earlier this season, when the Rebels held Boise State running back Ashton Jeanty, the nation’s leading rusher, to 128 yards on 33 carries for a season-low 3.9 yards per carry.

Jeanty’s rushing yards prop at the Westgate is 172½.

“I feel like Boise really hasn’t changed that much (since the win at Allegiant) but UNLV has just continued to go upward and upward,” Salmons said. “I think they go up there (to Idaho) with a lot of confidence. They’ve been dominant on the road.”

The Rebels (10-2, 7-5 ATS) are 6-0 on the road this season and 5-0 ATS as road underdogs under Odom.

Best bet

CBS Sportsline handicapper Bruce Marshall, who won the Review-Journal College Challenge with a 44-24-2 ATS record (64.7 percent), recommends a play on the Rebels (+5).

“Evidence suggests that the Broncos were running out of steam in November, struggling with Mountain West also-rans (UNR) and Wyoming and then failing to cover the spread for the third time in their last four games against Oregon State,” he said. “Ashton Jeanty, while still productive, has been showing more signs of wear and tear in recent weeks, while quarterback Maddux Madsen has also cooled off, with just three touchdown passes in the past three games and passing for less than 200 yards in the last two.

“Meanwhile, the Rebs have shown no sign of slowing down and can avenge the narrow Oct. 25 home loss to Boise when Jeanty was held in relative check. UNLV is also 10-2 versus the line as a visitor under Barry Odom since last season.”

Contact reporter Todd Dewey at tdewey@reviewjournal.com. Follow @tdewey33 on X.