Best bets for PGA Tour’s Tour Championship

Jon Rahm won the BMW Championship in spectacular fashion Sunday, sinking a 66-foot putt on the first playoff hole to defeat Dustin Johnson, who drained a 43-footer on the 18th hole to force a playoff.

There’s a good chance Johnson and Rahm — the world’s top-ranked golfers — also will be dueling for the Tour Championship, which tees off Thursday at East Lake Golf Club in Atlanta.

No. 1 Johnson is the +175 favorite at the Westgate, and No. 2 Rahm is the +275 second choice to win the final event of the FedEx Cup playoffs.

By virtue of being No. 1 in the FedEx Cup points standings, Johnson will start the event at 10 under, while Rahm, No. 2 in points, will start at 8 under.

Justin Thomas (5-1) will start at 7 under, Webb Simpson (10-1) at 6 under and Las Vegas resident Collin Morikawa (20-1) at 5 under.

Five golfers in the 30-player field will start at 4 under, five at 3 under, five at 2 under, five at 1 under and five at even.

Westgate sportsbook vice president of risk Jeff Sherman picked Rahm to win the BMW Championship at 10-1 odds. Rahm was 150-1 at adjusted odds after the second round, though the Westgate took only one wager for $2 at that number.

Sherman (@golfodds) and handicapper Wes Reynolds (@WesReynolds1), who has picked three outright winners since the PGA Tour restart, like PGA Championship winner Morikawa as one of their best bets at 20-1.

Morikawa, 20-1 (at Westgate)

“A few shots is not much to make up over four days,” Sherman said. “Morikawa is five back and, especially coming off a win at a major, he’s not going to be afraid of the moment. He can play aggressively, and I think he can go after the guys at the top.”

Said Reynolds, co-host of VSiN’s “Long Shots” golf betting show:

“Morikawa was a disappointing 20th last week at the BMW Championship. He got off to a brutal start at 9 over through the first two rounds and only hit 42 percent of his greens. The weekend was a more characteristic ball-striking performance from Morikawa. He shot 4 under and hit 72 percent of the greens.

“This week is Morikawa’s first look at East Lake, but Xander Schauffele won here on his debut back in 2017. He will start at -5, which is where Rory McIlroy started in his victory last year.”

Here is Sherman’s other best bet:

Justin Thomas, 5-1 (at Westgate)

Thomas has three wins this year, including the WGC-FedEx St. Jude Invitational on Aug. 3.

“I would look past the top two guys to Justin Thomas in the 5-1 range,” Sherman said. “He could easily get back in the mix.”

Here is Reynolds’ other best bet:

Webb Simpson, 10-1 (at Westgate, Circa)

Simpson leads the PGA Tour in birdie average and scoring average (67.96) and has three top-five finishes in six appearances at the Tour Championship.

“Going to try and beat the two short-priced favorites this week here,” Reynolds said. “Simpson punted on playing last week at the BMW Championship and avoided the Bentgrass/Poa Annua and now returns to his preferred Bermuda grass. All seven of his wins have come on shorter courses that cater to ball strikers.

“This is also a big week for Simpson as he now has some company to win PGA Tour Player of the Year with Johnson, Rahm and Morikawa all gathering a pair of victories this summer. Although he often gets overlooked, Webb is a proven winner in big-time events (2012 U.S. Open and 2018 Players Championship). And he’s arguably playing the best golf of his career this season.”

Contact reporter Todd Dewey at tdewey@reviewjournal.com. Follow @tdewey33 on Twitter.