Belmont Stakes horse-by-horse analysis

DraftKings sportsbook director Johnny Avello handicaps the 10-horse field for Saturday’s Belmont Stakes in Elmont, New York.

Post position, horse, jockey, morning-line odds:

1. Joevia, Jose Lezvano, 30-1

Appears to run his best races at Monmouth and on an off track. Failed poorly in the Wood Memorial, and the overall stage looms too large for his ability.

2. Everfast, Luis Saez, 12-1

His second-place finish in the Preakness surprised me. Has only a Maiden Special Weight win in 11 starts. Has run in quite a few quality races and always at a monster price. Take a look at the Grade 2 Holy Bull, where he ran a powerful race and came back with a disappointing effort in The Fountain of Youth. That’s what I’m expecting again.

3. Master Fencer, Julien Leparoux, 8-1

Gave a respectable effort in the Derby as one of the higher-price participants in the race. It’s difficult to benchmark the extent of how good he is or isn’t.

4. Tax, Irad Ortiz, 15-1

Had a future bet on him a week before the Kentucky Derby at 80-1. Good value on my part, bad effort on his. Conditions looked affirmative heading into race day, but he faltered and now is back in New York, where he might be more comfortable. Certainly could be used underneath in exotic wagering, but that last is still a concern.

5. Bourbon War, Mike Smith, 12-1

Preakness was his worst race by far, so if price is about what have you done lately, he should be higher than his 12-1 morning line. The additional distance will help, as he always seems to be moving forward at the end of every performance.

6. Spinoff, Javier Castellano, 15-1

His Derby performance was lackluster, but to his defense, he was wide the entire race. Has a way of finding early trouble in most starts and often doesn’t get a clean break from the gate. He should be a little closer to the pace here and might contend for one of the exotics spots.

7. Sir Winston, Joel Rosario, 12-1

His Peter Pan was huge, and a duplication of that race puts him in the mix. Loves to make up ground late and has the appropriate jockey to complement that running style.

8. Intrepid Heart, John Velazquez, 10-1

Lightly raced with only three starts and potentially dangerous. I like the progression of race types and the improvement in each of those. He should be able to run two miles, so don’t be concerned with the 1½ miles. Trainer Todd Pletcher has won the Belmont three times, and Velasquez has twice.

9. War of Will, Tyler Gaffalione, 2-1

Could he have been going for the Triple Crown barring the Kentucky Derby incident? I don’t think so. The Preakness was clearly his best effort, and he will be the only horse to start in all three Triple Crown races. Trainer Mark Casse has had a lot of success at Belmont this year. Appears to be a win candidate.

10. Tacitus, Jose Ortiz, 9-5

Was bet quite heavily in the Kentucky Derby, going off at a price of less than 6-1. Not surprisingly, he had high traffic levels to contend with that day. Training patterns have been strong in New York, and I expect to see a gem Saturday.