AFC championship betting history: 3 biggest long shots to win title

The New England Patriots and Kansas City Chiefs have dominated the AFC in the 21st century, winning 13 of the past 23 conference championships.

The franchises entered 12 of those 13 championship seasons with short odds to win the conference. But the 2001 Patriots, the team that kicked off the dynasty, was one of the longest shots ever to advance to the Super Bowl from the AFC.

New England entered its second season under coach Bill Belichick with 20-1 odds to win the AFC title after it finished 5-11 and in last place in the AFC East in 2000.

Quarterback Drew Bledsoe, who had signed a 10-year contract extension in March 2001, was injured in the second game of the season on a hit by Jets linebacker Mo Lewis and replaced by Tom Brady, a sixth-round draft pick in 2000.

The Patriots lost that game to fall to 0-2, but Brady started the final 14 games and went 11-3 as a starter to claim the No. 2 playoff seed.

New England opened the playoffs by beating the then-Oakland Raiders 16-13 in overtime in the infamous “Tuck Rule” game. The rule was used to overturn a Brady fumble into an incomplete pass and keep a late drive alive.

The drive culminated with Adam Vinatieri’s 45-yard field goal through a snowstorm — considered one of the most clutch kicks in NFL history — that sent the game to overtime. Vinatieri won it in overtime with a 23-yard field goal.

The Patriots then knocked off the Steelers 24-17 in Pittsburgh to win the AFC championship. New England stunned the heavily favored St. Louis Rams, aka “The Greatest Show on Turf,” 20-17 in the 2002 Super Bowl for the first of six NFL titles in 18 years.

Here are the two other biggest long shots to win the AFC title, according to Sportsoddshistory.com:

2. 1981 Cincinnati Bengals, 30-1

The Bengals went 12-4 in the 1981 season to snap a skid of three consecutive losing seasons behind quarterback Ken Anderson, who led the league in passer rating (98.4) en route to winning the NFL MVP award.

Cincinnati whipped the then-San Diego Chargers 27-7 in the AFC championship game at Riverfront Stadium in a game dubbed the “Freezer Bowl.” The game-time temperature was 9 degrees below zero, the second-lowest in NFL history, with a wind chill factor of 59 below, the lowest in league history.

The Bengals lost the 1982 Super Bowl to the San Francisco 49ers, who led 20-0 at halftime on their way to a 26-21 victory.

1. 2021 Cincinnati Bengals, 80-1

Cincinnati went 10-7 in the 2021 season to end a slide of five straight losing seasons and exceed the win total of its previous two seasons combined (6-25-1).

The Bengals, behind second-year quarterback Joe Burrow, opened the playoffs by beating the Raiders 26-19 in the wild-card round. It was their first playoff win since 1990 and ended what was the NFL’s longest playoff victory drought.

Cincinnati upset the top-seeded Titans 19-16 in the divisional round before stunning the second-seeded Chiefs 27-24 in overtime in Kansas City in the AFC championship game. The Bengals trailed 21-3 in the first half, and their 18-point comeback win tied the AFC title game record for largest comeback win (2006 Colts vs. Patriots).

Cincinnati went ahead 24-21 on Evan McPherson’s 52-yard field goal with 6:04 left in the fourth quarter. The Chiefs tied it on Harrison Butker’s 44-yard field goal as time expired and won the coin toss in overtime. But Kansas City quarterback Patrick Mahomes threw an interception on the third play from scrimmage, and the Bengals drove deep into Chiefs territory to set up McPherson’s game-winning 31-yard field goal.

Cincinnati lost 23-20 to the Los Angeles Rams in the 2022 Super Bowl.

Contact reporter Todd Dewey at tdewey@reviewjournal.com. Follow @tdewey33 on X.