2019 NFL betting breakdown — Week 4
Joe D’Amico, AASIWINS.COM, @joedamicowins
Panthers (1-2) at Texans (2-1)
Time: 10 a.m.
Line/total: Texans -4½, 47½
Analysis: Panthers QB Cam Newton is out, leaving Kyle Allen at the helm. Obviously a step down, but the Panthers are no offensive juggernaut to begin with. I think the number here is sharp.There’s an argument for both sides. Carolina’s defense is good against the pass — and Texans QB Deshaun Watson has been sacked 12 times — but horrible against the rush. This game will be decided by a field goal or less.
By the numbers: The Panthers are 5-1 ATS in the last six games against teams with a winning record and 3-8 ATS in their last 11 overall. … The under is 5-0 in the Texans’ last five at home and 4-1 in their past five overall.
Pick: Texans 24, Panthers 21
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Browns (1-2) at Ravens (2-1)
Time: 10 a.m.
Line/total: Ravens -6½, 45
Analysis: The Browns have received plenty of hype, so sitting at 1-2 is raising a lot of eyebrows, especially with an offense full of playmakers that averages a mere 16.3 points. To make matters worse, Cleveland is one of the NFL’s most penalized teams. Ravens QB Lamar Jackson (63.0 percent completion rate, seven TDs, zero INT) and RB Mark Ingram (257 rushing yards, five TDs) lead the NFL’s No. 1 scoring offense (36.7 points).
By the numbers: The road team is 13-5-1 ATS in the last 19 meetings in the series. … The Ravens are 5-2 ATS in the last seven meetings with the Browns. … The Browns are 6-16-1 ATS in their last 23 games against the AFC North.
Pick: Ravens 31, Browns 16
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Redskins (0-3) at Giants (1-2)
Time: 10 a.m.
Line/total: Giants -3, 48½
Analysis: As great as Daniel Jones looked in last week’s 32-31 win over Tampa Bay, the Giants still lost running back Saquon Barkley (ankle). So now they have a rookie quarterback and Wayne Gallman as their premier ball carrier. Washington QB Case Keenum (66.4 percent completion rate, 933 passing yards) is playing well and will dissect New York’s 32nd-ranked pass defense. Both quarterbacks should put up big numbers.
By the numbers: The Redskins are 5-2 ATS in their last seven games on the road. … The Giants are 1-7-1 ATS in their last nine at home.
Pick: Giants 24, Redskins 23
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Chargers (1-2) at Dolphins (0-3)
Time: 10 a.m.
Line/total: Chargers -14½, 44½
Analysis: The Dolphins are losing by an average of 49 points and rank last offensively and defensively. Josh Rosen will start at quarterback, but it won’t make a difference. Chargers QB Philip Rivers will have a career day, and Rosen won’t be able to keep pace. I don’t normally like laying this many points, but all rules go out the window when this year’s Dolphins are concerned.
By the numbers: The Chargers are 7-2 ATS in their last nine games as a visitor and 5-1 ATS in their last six following an ATS loss. … The Dolphins are 0-4 ATS in their past four against AFC foes and 0-6 ATS in their last six overall.
Pick: Chargers 34, Dolphins 13
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Raiders (1-2) at Colts (2-1)
Time: 10 a.m.
Line/total: Colts -6½, 45½
Analysis: Even without WR T.Y. Hilton (doubtful, quad), QB Jacoby Brissett (71.7 percent completion rate, 646 passing yards, seven TDs, one INT) and standout RB Marlon Mack (299 rushing yards, two TDs) will have no problem extending the Colts’ seven-game straight-up winning streak at Lucas Oil Stadium. Oakland doesn’t have the talent to contend with many opponents. The offense is having issues crossing the goal line, and the defense has gotten shredded in the air and on the ground.
By the numbers: The Raiders are 5-11-2 ATS in their last 18 games against teams with a winning record and 1-15-1 ATS in their past 21 on the road. … The Colts are 4-1-1 ATS in their past six against AFC opponents and 4-1-1 ATS in their last six overall.
Pick: Colts 32, Raiders 16
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Chiefs (3-0) at Lions (2-0-1)
Time: 10 a.m.
Line/total: Chiefs -7, 54½
Analysis: Detroit is one of this season’s most pleasant surprises. But beating a banged-up Philadelphia team last week was a much easier task than facing a true powerhouse such as Kansas City this week. Patrick Mahomes leads the NFL’s top passing unit and third scoring offense (33.7 points). The Chiefs’ quarterback is going to shred the Lions’ 22nd-ranked passing defense.
By the numbers: Kansas City is 8-2-1 ATS in its last 11 road games, 16-5 ATS in its past 21 games in September and 5-1 ATS in its last six games overall.
Pick: Chiefs 33, Lions 23
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Patriots (3-0) at Bills (3-0)
Time: 10 a.m.
Line/total: Patriots -7, 41½
Analysis: The Bills’ 3-0 record is against teams that are collectively 1-8. New England’s three opponents are a combined 0-9, but the Patriots, along with the Chiefs, are the cream of the AFC crop. Tom Brady leading the NFL’s No. 2 scoring offense (35.3 points) is nothing new. But the New England defense ranks No. 1 in points allowed, passing yards, rushing yards and total yards.
By the numbers: The Patriots are 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings with the Bills … New England is 16-5-1 ATS in the past 22 meetings at Buffalo and 20-8 ATS its last 28 road games.
Pick: Patriots 31, Bills 20
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Titans (1-2) at Falcons (1-2)
Time: 10 a.m.
Line/total: Falcons -3½, 45½
Analysis: This is one of the toughest games to handicap this week. Despite underachieving, both teams are talented. Both also are inconsistent. The combination of Tennessee having the NFL’s No. 4 passing defense and that the line is 3½ points urges me to take the underdog.
By the numbers: The Titans have covered the last two meetings with the Falcons. … The Falcons are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games.
Pick: Falcons 23, Titans 20
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Buccaneers (1-2) at Rams (3-0)
Time: 1:05 p.m.
Line/total: Rams -9, 49
Analysis: The Rams, 3-0 ATS, are a good team. But something just isn’t right. For whatever reason, they just aren’t the same team of last season. QB Jared Goff is not throwing the ball well, and the passing game ranks 24th. They really depend on RB Todd Gurley’s legs. The Buccaneers are tough against the run (sixth in the league). I am not saying they are going to win, but laying almost double digits is too much.
By the numbers: The underdog is 8-3-1 ATS in the last 12 meetings in the series. … The Buccaneers are 3-0-1 ATS in their last four games on the road and 5-0-1 ATS in their last six after a straight-up loss.
Pick: Rams 32, Buccaneers 23
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Seahawks (2-1) at Cardinals (0-2-1)
Time: 1:05 p.m.
Line/total: Seahawks -5½, 48
Analysis: I feel bad for Cardinals QB Kyler Murray here. He’s not doing that badly (830 passing yards, 61.3 percent completion rate), but he faces a good Seahawks defense that’s looking for redemption after last week’s loss to the Saints. Murray doesn’t have a good ground game to keep Seattle honest. Seattle QB Russell Wilson is playing the best ball of his career. Look for him and the offense to soar against the 29th-ranked Arizona defense (29.3 ppg).
By the numbers: The Seahawks are 6-1 ATS in their last seven road games and 7-3-1 ATS in their past 11 against the NFC. … The Cardinals are 1-4 ATS in their last five home games.
Pick: Seahawks 27, Cardinals 17
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Vikings (2-1) at Bears (2-1)
Time: 1:25 p.m.
Line/total: Bears -1½, 38
Analysis: Don’t fool yourself into thinking that just because QB Mitch Trubisky and the Chicago offense scored 31 points on Washington that they’re going to start to roll. Trubisky tends to be overvalued. The Bears’ defense is solid and has earned their victories. But the Vikings, behind Dalvin Cook, have the NFL’s No. 2 rushing attack and fifth-ranked defense (15.7 points allowed).
By the numbers: Three of the last four and 11 of the past 15 games in the series have gone under the total. … The Vikings are 11-4 ATS in their last 15 September games.
Pick: Vikings 20, Bears 19
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Jaguars (1-2) at Broncos (0-3)
Time: 1:25 p.m.
Line/total: Broncos -3, 37½
Analysis: In August, if you would have told me that Gardner Minshew was going into Mile High to square off against Joe Flacco, I would have said Broncos all the way. Well, three games into the season and the rookie quarterback has better overall numbers than the 12-year veteran. Jacksonville is scoring 19.3 ppg and Denver 15.3. Both defenses are good, but the Jaguars are playing better.
By the numbers: The road team is 5-1 ATS in the last six games in the series. … The Broncos are 4-9-1 ATS in their past 14 games and 8-20-1 ATS in their last 29 against the AFC.
Pick: Jaguars 19, Broncos 16
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Cowboys (3-0) at Saints (2-1)
Time: 5:20 p.m.
Line/total: Cowboys -2½, 47½
Analysis: I know, no Drew Brees. But Teddy Bridgewater brings a different dynamic to the Saints’ offense. Yes, the Cowboys are 3-0 ATS. But they faced a 1-2 New York team, an 0-3 Washington team and an 0-3 Miami team. New Orleans has played better opponents, and the Superdome is one of the loudest and toughest places to play.
By the numbers: The home team is 4-0 ATS in the past four meetings in the series, and the underdog is 10-2 ATS in the last 12 meetings. … The Cowboys are 1-5 ATS in their last six at New Orleans and 6-14 ATS in their last 20 games against teams with a winning record.
Pick: Saints 27, Cowboys 26
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Monday
Bengals (0-3) at Steelers (0-3)
Time: 5:15 p.m.
Line/total: Steelers -3½, 45
Analysis: The last three meetings in this AFC North rivalry were decided by a total of 13 points, with Cincinnati covering two of the three. Andy Dalton leads the No. 2 passing unit in the NFL and goes up against the 30th-ranked passing defense. Neither offense is having any success running the ball, and both rank near the bottom of the NFL in scoring (Cincinnati 18.0 points, Pittsburgh 16.3). I can’t back the Steelers until they show signs of life.
By the numbers: The under is 8-2 in the past 10 meetings at Heinz Field and 5-2 in the last seven overall.
Pick: Bengals 20, Steelers 19
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