2019 NFL betting breakdown: Week 3
Chip Chirimbes, Chipwins.com, Vegasopeningline.com
Denver (0-2) at Green Bay (2-0)
Time: 10 a.m.
Line/Total: Packers -7, 43
Analysis: The jury is still out on whether QB Aaron Rogers and rookie head coach Matt LaFleur can co-exist with a new offensive scheme. The Packers have 412 passing yards and are completing 62 percent of their passes as they concentrate on the run. Aaron Jones is averaging 5.3 yards per carry. Denver QB Joe Flacco is at 69.1 percent completions with 560 passing yards. Denver is 4-14 against the spread on the road, and the home team is 6-1 ATS in this series. Most of the public action will on Green Bay, so tread lightly.
By the numbers: The Broncos are 5-14 ATS after a straight-up loss while the Packers are 2-6-1 ATS after an ATS win. … The under is 5-0-1 in Denver’s last six road games and 19-6-1 in the last 26 for the Broncos.
Pick: Packers 24, Broncos 20
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Detroit (1-0-1) at Philadelphia (1-1)
Time: 10 a.m.
Line/Total: Eagles -5, 45½
Analysis: Yeah right … like I believe the Lions have a chance here … NOPE! “We” were fortunate to get the outright win last week with Detroit, but that’s as far as I will push my luck with the Lions. The Eagles fell to the Falcons as expected and return home to host this bunch of imposters. Sorry, Lions fans, but your team is full off underachievers and has little to offer in coaching. Eagles coach Doug Pederson is 9-2-1 ATS at home when hosting an opponent coming off a win.
By the numbers: The under is 8-1 in Detroit’s last nine games, and the Lions are 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings with the Eagles. … The over has come in six consecutive times in the series.
Pick: Eagles 31, Detroit 16
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Baltimore (2-0) at Kansas City (2-0)
Time: 10 a.m.
Line/Total: Chiefs -5½, 52
Analysis: The Ravens have won eight of their last nine regular-season games, with the only loss coming in overtime against Kansas City. The two most electric QBs in the NFL will square off here, MVP Pat Mahomes and Baltimore’s Lamar Jackson, who has emerged as one of the league’s biggest offensive threats. This is a Pro’s versus Joe’s contest where the services are on Baltimore and the general public is laying the Chiefs every time out.
By the numbers: The road team is 7-2 ATS in the last nine meetings. … The Ravens are 15-5-2 ATS on grass and 4-0 ATS in their last four road games. … Kansas City is 2-5 ATS in its last seven at home and 20-8 ATS following an ATS win.
Pick: Chiefs 33, Ravens 29
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Cincinnati (0-2) at Buffalo (2-0)
Time: 10 a.m.
Line/Total: Bills -6, 43½
Analysis: Both Buffalo wins came in New York against against two of the NFL’s bottom feeders. Now the Bills have become the favorite of the week. The Bengals (0-2) are throwing the ball 75 percent of the time. QB Andy Dalton is second in the NFL in passing yards with 729. Cincinnati has won four of the last five meetings, including the last two in Buffalo.
By the numbers: The over is 7-2 in the last nine meetings, and the underdog is 6-2 ATS in the last eight in the series. … Cincinnati is 5-0 ATS in its last five road games but just 4-9 ATS in the last 13 meetings. … The over is 21-8 in the last 29 Buffalo home games.
Pick: Bengals 31, Bills 27
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Atlanta (1-1) at Indianapolis (1-1)
Time: 10 a.m.
Line/Total: Colts -1½, 47
Analysis: I just love to fade this Atlanta team, especially after it posts a win. I don’t understand what the public sees in the Falcons. They haven’t been the same since their Super Bowl collapse. They play like they know that they can’t win … and I believe it. The Colts are 2-0 ATS and can pull off the home win.
By the numbers: Atlanta is 1-6 after a straight-up win, and the favorite is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings. … The Falcons are 1-5 in their last six on road. … The under is 15-6 in the last 21 Colts home games.
Pick: Colts 27, Falcons 24
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Oakland (1-1) at Minnesota (1-1)
Time: 10 a.m.
Line/Total: Vikings -8½, 43
Analysis: Oakland looks improved, especially with the running of Josh Jacobs, which relieves the pass rush on QB Derek Carr. But the Raiders just don’t get it done on the road (1-7 ATS), and the Vikings thrive at home going 37-16-1 ATS.
By the numbers: Oakland is 5-0 ATS after a straight-up loss, but 1-7 ATS in the last eight on the road. … Minnesota is 37-16-1 ATS in its last 54 home games and 35-16-1 ATS following a straight-up loss. … The underdog is 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings.
Pick: Vikings 33, Oakland 17
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New York Jets (0-2) at New England (2-0)
Time: 10 a.m.
Line/Total: Patriots -21½, 43
Analysis: Another lost season for the New York Jets and another walkover for the Patriots in the AFC East. New England can name the score here if it wants. It is all a matter of whether the Patriots want to embarrass the Jets. My guess is no, but how will the Jets score? The Patriots go easy as they realize the AFC East is trash.
By the numbers: The home team is 7-1-1 ATS in the last nine meetings, and the under is 6-0 last six meetings. … The Jets are 0-5-1 ATS against winning teams and 0-3-1 ATS in their last four games in New England. … The Patriots are 40-16-2 ATS at home and 42-17 ATS overall.
Pick: Patriots 31, Jets 9
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Miami (0-2) at Dallas (2-0)
Time: 10 a.m.
Line/Total: Cowboys -22, 47
Analysis: Miami has decided that it has no future at quarterback with 37-year-old Ryan Fitzpatrick, whose “Fitz-magic” has disappeared. So the Dolphins are starting Josh Rosen. Good luck! I expect a lackluster effort from Dallas but enough to win easily.
By the numbers: The road team is 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings. … Miami is 0-5 ATS in their last five games and 7-19 ATS on field turf. … The Cowboys are 2-5 ATS at home against teams with losing records.
Pick: Cowboys 32, Miami 13
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New York Giants (0-2) at Tampa Bay (1-1)
Time: 1:05 p.m.
Line/Total: Buccaneers -5½, 48
Analysis: The Daniel Jones era has started for New York as two-time Super Bowl MVP Eli Manning passes the baton at quarterback. The problem for the Giants is that Jones, like Manning, doesn’t play defense and won’t make any tackles like the rest of their defense. Bad spot for a debut!
By the numbers: The Giants are 4-0-1 ATS in their last five at Tampa Bay and 6-1-2 ATS in the last nine meetings. … The road team is 5-0-1 ATS in the series. … The under is 7-1 in Tampa Bay’s last eight games.
Pick: Buccaneers 30, Giants 24
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Carolina (0-2) at Arizona (0-1-1)
Time: 1:05 p.m.
Line/Total: Cardinals -2, 45
Analysis: Carolina QB Cam Newton has been ruled out in this game. But any replacement will be an improvement from what we’ve gotten out of Newton the past three seasons. Arizona has been made a false favorite here. The Cardinals may have gotten better but by just how much? Not enough!
By the numbers: The home team is 6-0 ATS in the last six meetings, and the favorite is 5-1 ATS over that span. … The over is 4-1 in the last five games in the series. … The under is 28-1 in the Cardinals’ last 29 home games.
Pick: Panthers 27, Cardinals 26
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New Orleans (1-1) at Seattle (2-0)
Time: 1:25 p.m.
Line/Total: Seahawks -4½, 45
Analysis: New Orleans without question is my A-play of the week, even without QB Drew Brees. There is something about a good team that loses a key player that makes them bond and perform better as a unit. The Seahawks are 2-0 on the road, but they will return home and disappoint.
By the numbers: The Saints are 0-6 ATS after an ATS loss and 0-7 ATS in their last seven overall. … New Orleans is 20-8 ATS in its last 28 games on the road. … Seattle is 10-4-1 ATS in its last 15 games.
Pick: Saints 27, Seahawks 23
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Houston (1-1) at Los Angeles Chargers (1-1)
Time: 1:25 p.m.
Line/Total: Chargers -3, 48½
Analysis: From what I’ve seen, the action has been on the Texans and it has been steady. Why? They are poorly coached, have no offensive line and rarely perform well in the clutch because of a lack of organization. Los Angeles looks to rebound from its shameful loss at Detroit and will have Philip Rivers leading the way.
By the numbers: The Chargers are 6-0 ATS in the last six meetings, and they are 5-0 ATS after a straight up loss. … Houston is 2-9 ATS in its last 11 games on grass. … The under is 18-8 in Chargers games against AFC opponents.
Pick: Chargers 30, Texans 29
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Pittsburgh (0-2) at San Francisco (2-0)
Time: 1:25 p.m.
Line/Total: 49ers -6½, 43½
Analysis: It appears that few believe the Steelers are that bad, and at 0-2 both straight up and ATS, they will receive plenty of backers this week. Pittsburgh getting this many points looks inviting. My first instinct was take the points. But the 49ers have finally put something together, winning their first two on the road. San Francisco’s defense allowed 17 points in both wins.
By the numbers: The home team and favorite are 4-0 in the last four meetings. … San Francisco is 7-16 ATS in its last 23 games. … Pittsburgh is 33-16 -2 ATS on the road.
Pick: 49ers 36, Steelers 23
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Los Angeles Rams (2-0) at Cleveland (1-1)
Time: 5:20 p.m.
Line/Total: Rams -3½, 47½
Analysis: The Browns have shown weakness on offense and defense. But for the Rams, it’s a different story. It looks like RB Todd Gurley is back, but the Rams have fallen short of last last season’s offensive pace. This is a big game for Cleveland, and the “Dog Pound” might bite!
By the numbers: The Browns are 0-7 ATS after allowing fewer than 15 points, and they are 9-21 ATS in their last 30 home games. … The Rams are on a 6-1 ATS run.
Pick: Browns 27, Rams 26
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Monday
Chicago (1-1) at Washington (0-2)
Time: 5:15 p.m.
Line/Total: Bears -4½, 41
Analysis: I most likely will take the underdog here, but it is difficult the back the Redskins. They are 0-7 ATS in their last seven Monday Night appearances. Although Washington is 5-0 ATS in the last five meetings, the team’s missing parts are difficult to overcome. One thing the Redskins have working for them is the underwhelming play of Bears QB Mitch Trubisky. I can’t see Washington winning but must fade Chicago’s offense.
By the numbers: Chicago is 0-5 ATS in the last five meetings, and the Bears are 11-4 in their last 15 games against NFC opponents. … Chicago is 9-4 ATS in its last 13 games. … The road team is 7-2 ATS in the last nine games in the series.
Pick: Redskins 23, Bears 19
