2019 NFL betting breakdown — Week 13
Packers (8-3) at Giants (2-9)
Time: 10 a.m.
Line/Total: Packers -6, 44½
Analysis: The Giants have struggled against the better teams, especially at home. They lost by 14, 18 and 19 points at home to Buffalo, Minnesota and Dallas. And they lost by 21 at New England. So asking them to stay within six or seven points against Green Bay could be a tall order.
By the numbers: New York is 4-11 ATS as a home underdog since 2017. … The Giants are 10-5 to the under in those 15 games. They’ve scored more than 18 points twice in those 15 games.
Pick: Packers 27, Giants 17
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Redskins (2-9) at Panthers (5-6)
Time: 10 a.m.
Line/Total: Panthers -10, 39
Analysis: Something will have to give here, as the Redskins haven’t scored more than 19 points since Week 2 while Carolina has allowed 20 or more points in 10 of 11 games. Washington wants to run the ball, and Carolina is allowing 5.0 yards per rush and has allowed 100 or more rushing yards in nine of 11 games.
By the numbers: The Redskins are 3-1 ATS as road underdogs of 10 or more since late last season.
Pick: Panthers 26, Redskins 17
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49ers (10-1) at Ravens (9-2)
Time: 10 a.m.
Line/Total: Ravens -5½, 45½
Analysis: Baltimore traded for CB Marcus Peters in Week 7 and got back CB Jimmy Smith in Week 9 after a bye week. As the defense improved, the Ravens went from running the ball 55 percent to 60 percent of the time. They are scoring 67 percent of their potential points on drives during those five games. The league average is 29 percent. The Ravens have scored 30 or more points while not allowing more than 20 in each of those five games. Nobody has come closer than 14 points in those games, and they have played the likes of Seattle, New England, Houston and the Rams, so the schedule hasn’t been easy.
By the numbers: Baltimore is 2-6 ATS as a home favorite since Lamar Jackson became the starting QB. … The Ravens are 7-1 straight up in same eight games with five of the seven wins by six or more points.
Pick: Ravens 28, 49ers 17
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Titans (6-5) at Colts (6-5)
Time: 10 a.m.
Line/Total: Colts -1, 43
Analysis: Tennessee is a much better team with Ryan Tannehill at QB. The Titans were averaging 5.5 yards per play with Marcus Mariota and now are averaging 6.8 yards per play in Tannehill’s starts. They were successful on 39 percent of their plays with Mariota and now 52 percent with Tannehill. Tennessee has the better offense with Tannehill and the better defense. Wide receiver T.Y. Hilton is out for the Colts.
By the numbers: Tennessee is 2-14 straight up at Indianapolis in the last 16 years. … Tennessee is a good teaser play this week, as Indianapolis has defeated one team by more than seven points.
Pick: Titans 23, Colts 20
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Eagles (5-6) at Dolphins (2-9)
Time: 10 a.m.
Line/Total: Eagles -10, 45
Analysis: Miami has lost by double digits each of the last two weeks after winning back-to-back games. No surprise, as their wins came against the Jets and a Colts team without QB Jacoby Brissett. Against playoff contenders, Miami has lost each of its games by at least 10 points and is likely to lose by double digits against a Philadelphia team getting back wide receivers Alshon Jeffery and Nelson Agholor.
By the numbers: Under Doug Pederson, the under is 18-6-1 when the Eagles are on the road as favorites or underdogs of six or fewer points.
Pick: Eagles 28, Dolphins 17
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Buccaneers (4-7) at Jaguars (4-7)
Time: 10 a.m.
Line/Total: Buccaneers -2½, 47½
Analysis: High winds are expected during the game. Jacksonville is off three straight road games in which it lost each by 20 or more points. Have the Jaguars thrown in the towel? They beat the Jets by 14 and the Titans by 13, so if they haven’t given up, they can compete in this game.
By the numbers: Tampa Bay allows just 3.5 yards per rush, and Jacksonville has allowed 5.4 yards per rush and 142 yards per game.
Pick: Buccaneers 27, Jaguars 24
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Jets (4-7) at Bengals (0-11)
Time: 10 a.m.
Line/Total: Jets -3, 42
Analysis: Cincinnati has topped 17 points twice this season. The strength of the Jets is their defense, which will probably make it tough for Cincinnati to get past 17 points with QB Andy Dalton starting again. The Bengals have allowed 21 or more points in all but their last two games. The Jets have scored 34 points in three straight games.
By the numbers: The Bengals are 0-4-1 ATS in their last five games as home underdogs. … The Jets are 3-7 straight up and ATS in Sam Darnold road starts.
Pick: Jets 20, Bengals 17
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Browns (5-6) at Steelers (6-5)
Time: 10 a.m.
Line/Total: Browns -2, 39
Analysis: Cleveland is coming off three straight home games and playing well, but has struggled on the road against good defenses. The Browns scored three points at San Francisco, 13 at New England and 19 at Denver. Pittsburgh will be challenged on offense, but the defense can keep the Steelers in this game.
By the numbers: Pittsburgh is 6-2-1 ATS in its last nine games as a home underdog.
Pick: Steelers 20, Browns 17
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Rams (6-5) at Cardinals (3-7-1)
Time: 1:05 p.m.
Line/Total: Rams -3, 47
Analysis: The Rams haven’t looked good lately, but they take a big step down in class. They are off three straight games against good defenses in Pittsburgh, Chicago and Baltimore in which they didn’t score more than 17 points in a game. They’ve scored 24 or more against all below-average defenses they have faced. The Rams have a much better defense than the Cardinals, and their offense matches up well.
By the numbers: Arizona’s three wins are against teams with no more than three victories apiece.
Pick: Rams 23, Cardinals 20
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Chargers (4-7) at Broncos (3-8)
Time: 1:25 p.m.
Line/Total: Chargers -3, 38½
Analysis: The Chargers are getting safety Derwin James back, and the Broncos probably are starting rookie QB Drew Lock. The Chargers have played four good defenses and scored 13, 17, 17 and 20 points. Denver has topped 20 points three times.
By the numbers: The Chargers are 7-3 ATS as road favorites since 2016. They are 8-2 to the under in those games and 11-3 to the under since 2014 as road favorites. … Denver is 7-1 to the under in its last eight games as a home underdog.
Pick: Chargers 17, Broncos 16
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Raiders (6-5) at Chiefs (7-4)
Time: 1:25 p.m.
Line/Total: Chiefs -10½, 50
Analysis: Look for a lower-scoring game than many think. High winds in Kansas City probably will lead to more running plays or shorter passes. That should suit Raiders QB Derek Carr just fine, as he is second-to-last in air yards per pass this season. Raiders drives typically are long and sustained off short passes and run plays that eat a lot of clock. That’s just the opposite for Chiefs QB Patrick Mahomes, but the wind is likely to impact how far down the field he will be able to throw the ball. Oakland hasn’t scored more than 17 points at Kansas City since 2012.
By the numbers: Since Andy Reid arrived in Kansas City, his teams are 11-1 to the under as home favorites of more than seven points. They’ve allowed more than 19 points in one of those 12 games. … The last time these teams totaled more than 44 points playing in Kansas City was 2005. … The under is 9-1-1 in the last 11 games in the series played at Kansas City.
Pick: Chiefs 30, Raiders 17
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Patriots (10-1) at Texans (7-4)
Time: 5:20 p.m.
Line/Total: Patriots -3, 46½
Analysis: Houston has allowed all but four teams to score 20 or more points. New England has allowed one team to score more than 14 points. Houston can’t get pressure on the quarterback, and that should allow Patriots QB Tom Brady to have time to find receivers. The Texans haven’t scored more than 20 points against a good defense.
By the numbers: Houston is 4-11 ATS as a home underdog since 2013, including 3-8 ATS under Bill O’Brien. … O’Brien is 0-5 straight up against New England coach Bill Belichick.
Pick: Patriots 20, Texans 16
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Monday
Vikings (8-3) at Seahawks (9-2)
Time: 5:15 p.m.
Line/Total: Seahawks -3, 50
Analysis: Minnesota games have totaled 49 or more in three of four games against competent offenses. Seattle games have totaled 46 or more points in all six games against competent teams in which weather wasn’t a factor. Both teams should score 24 or more.
By the numbers: Minnesota is 4-9-1 ATS as a road underdog since 2016. … Since 2015, Minnesota QB Kirk Cousins is 5-20 straight up against teams that made the playoffs that season. … Seattle is 5-11-1 ATS as a home favorite since 2017.
Pick: Seahawks 27, Vikings 24
— Scott Kellen, SixthSenseSports.com, @SixthSenseNFL
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